Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, ovweather said:

I think like with all acts of nature, playing the blame game is useless and solves nothing. Why blame China, Trump, Obama, or whoever for what is happening now? Covid is just another natural disaster, but on a much grander scale. It seems society forgets such viruses are natural occurrences. It’s a reminder that nature is in charge. Like the old saying goes, “Nature put us here, nature can take us away.”

When a tornado or hurricane destroys a community and kills people, we don’t pass blame, so why pass blame for Covid? Sure, maybe governments and communities should be far better prepared for such things, but at the end of the day, only so much we can control. We are doing all we can right now. Other than a complete lock-down of the world for the next month, not much more we can do. But how do you lock-down 7 billion, often irrational, humans? You don’t. Testing will continue to improve and hopefully a vaccine will someday be available. And as we learn more, we will continue to adapt. Hopefully when the next new virus comes along, we will be better prepared because of Covid.

We have satellites and radar to track hurricanes and tornadoes.  China tried to block everybody from seeing the hurricane.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

^you can play around at the county level at that site as well.  There are state grades and county level grades.

B- County and State, tri-county area is B- Macomb A- Oakland, B Wayne so we have done an exceptional job locally. 

[Stebo]

24 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

although it was very obvious from the start for  those paying attention China was lying....many casual observers  likely thought it was just like SARS only a little worse...( I have been paying very close attention and started daily threads at another forum about this since late Jan)

 

check out these numbers

 

Last 3 days USA 88,631 cases 3329 deaths

Last 3 months CHINA 81,639 cases 3326 deaths

 

China has over 4 times the population of the USA

 

 

I would bet their cases are in the millions and deaths in the 10s of thousands easily.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

^you can play around at the county level at that site as well.  There are state grades and county level grades.

 That link is great, thanks. Looks like Michigan is one of the few States doing good.

[wisconsinwx]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

^you can play around at the county level at that site as well.  There are state grades and county level grades.

Unless they show us the sample size/extent of their sampling, I would take these ratings with a grain of salt.  It seems like all the states getting a B are the ones most advanced in this pandemic and almost seems like a scolding for all the D and F states.  Oakland, CA’s County should get a low grade though; research what happened last weekend there.

[Jackstraw]

  Next week is going to tell the tale to see if all these graphs and curves and dizzying estimates start to pan out accurately, better or worse.  Hoping for the first two.  The IHME model, which seems like the one that officials are mainly using, is supposedly getting updated with more data points overnight so will be interesting to see where it goes.

  Alabama and Florida are really looking scary with roughly 6k, 7k deaths respectively per that current model.  Fl. is projected to have the resources but Alabama, man, if the models right it's going to get nut's down there.   Out of 25k hospital beds Alabama may need, they only have 5k.  4k ICU beds they may need , they have 500.  And they have one of the steepest curves I've seen meaning if it pans out it's going to hit hard and fast.  It's a very small state population wise having half the population of Michigan.

  TN is going to run out of resources and projected to have twice the deaths as IN with roughly the same population.

  Just to point out most of these states were very late in the game with any type of social distancing measure.  Alabama is a secondary spring break location to FL and they embraced the spring breakers this year, with people complaining about them all the way up to last week.  

  Will be interesting to see how these numbers get updated later Saturday.  I think it's safe to say social distancing measures tend to work if even partially followed.

  If your states red you might be dead.

[Baum]

8 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  Next week is going to tell the tale to see if all these graphs and curves and dizzying estimates start to pan out accurately, better or worse.  Hoping for the first two.  The IHME model, which seems like the one that officials are mainly using, is supposedly getting updated with more data points overnight so will be interesting to see where it goes.

  Alabama and Florida are really looking scary with roughly 6k, 7k deaths respectively per that current model.  Fl. is projected to have the resources but Alabama, man, if the models right it's going to get nut's down there.   Out of 25k hospital beds Alabama may need, they only have 5k.  4k ICU beds they may need , they have 500.  And they have one of the steepest curves I've seen meaning if it pans out it's going to hit hard and fast.  It's a very small state population wise having half the population of Michigan.

  TN is going to run out of resources and projected to have twice the deaths as IN with roughly the same population.

  Just to point out most of these states were very late in the game with any type of social distancing measure.  Alabama is a secondary spring break location to FL and they embraced the spring breakers this year, with people complaining about them all the way up to last week.  

  Will be interesting to see how these numbers get updated later Saturday.  I think it's safe to say social distancing measures tend to work if even partially followed.

  If your states red you might be dead.

you seem very knowledgeable on this stuff. Can you provide the reason for the mass shutdowns and government intervention in this pandemic vs the H1N1 pandemic about a decade ago?

I've chalked it up to the rapid spread and the unknowing factor of exactly what we are dealing with. But would love a more professional bend on the issue. Thanks.

[on_wx]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

you seem very knowledgeable on this stuff. Can you provide the reason for the mass shutdowns and government intervention in this pandemic vs the H1N1 pandemic about a decade ago?

I've chalked it up to the rapid spread and the unknowing factor of exactly what we are dealing with. But would love a more professional bend on the issue. Thanks.

If there is no intervention to slow the spread hospitals will be overwhelmed/overrun and it'll be a nightmare for everyone  

[Hoosier]

Would be interesting to see a county by county breakdown of essential businesses and how many people are still required to physically show up to work.  My uncle works at a large, well known one here in northwest IN and they have a few cases there now.  Went from 1 case to 3 cases.  

[Baum]

29 minutes ago, on_wx said:

If there is no intervention to slow the spread hospitals will be overwhelmed/overrun and it'll be a nightmare for everyone  

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  Also, is there a site that shows actual hospital bed availability as this virus continues to ramp up? 

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  

No, because this spreads easier and is more deadly (can argue by what magnitude) than the flu.

The US death toll is on pace to surpass the H1N1 death toll in like 1 week or less from now.  In much less time.

[wisconsinwx]

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  

I’m pretty sure COVID-19 has a much higher R0 than H1N1 which means more would typically have it at any one time given similar social patterns.

Edit: ninja’d by Hoosier.

[snowstormcanuck]

2nd day in a row our daily new case numbers here in Ontario have dropped (462 on 04/01 to 401 on 04/02 to 375 yesterday).

Too bad testing is so sparse, otherwise I'd have more confidence in saying that maybe we're seeing a trend.

[Jackstraw]

52 minutes ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  Also, is there a site that shows actual hospital bed availability as this virus continues to ramp up? 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Baum]

32 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

thank you.

[sokolow]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  Also, is there a site that shows actual hospital bed availability as this virus continues to ramp up? 

In what sense? My recollection of the debrief on 2009 is public health officials in the USA and at WHO saw it as a reassortment of H1N1 that was relatively novel, they were concerned about its apparent lethality when it first appeared in Mexico, they were concerned about its apparent rapid international spread. The response in the USA was to ramp up public and inter/intragovernmental, communication about it in the sense of “dust off your pandemic plan,” to raise risk measures, to issue advisories about testing, monitoring, reporting, and school closings, and to push the production pipeline on strain appropriate vaccine and antiretrovirals

And in the end the lab confirmed death counts were low, estimated worldwide deaths on par with seasonal flu, and it was a bit clinically weird in that younger people had worse outcomes. Like a weather high risk day that blows low

[sokolow]

15 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would bet their cases are in the millions and deaths in the 10s of thousands easily.

Probably, and I’ve seen people who aren’t running an anti-chinese paranoia line treat 30k deceased but not and/or not yet identified as c19 cases as plausible.

It makes sense that given that Vincent Racaniello was willing to speculate actual infections in the USA were likely over 1M by end of last week, and we’re going to have the same issue as other countries of having to wait and do post-event analyses of excess deaths against baseline to sort out what was the potential number of fatalities that might have been the ‘rona that just weren’t lab-confirmed

I try to keep reminding myself the number on the tracker is not the Real True Number of C19 deaths, its a incomplete and provisional number given the constraints of data collection and reporting during a dangerous, politically charged, potentially historic pandemic.  

 

[Hoosier]

At the Indiana news conference today, it was mentioned that the number of verified covid-19 deaths statewide has matched the number of verified flu deaths for this season.

[on_wx]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  Also, is there a site that shows actual hospital bed availability as this virus continues to ramp up? 

Novel coronaviruses are different than the flu. The problem is that you develop difficulties breathing/pneumonia and require hospitalization at greater numbers. If you end up on a ventilator to breathe, then you are on that ventilator until you're immune system fights off the pneumonia, or you die. Unfortunately the process of healing can take several weeks which takes up hospital space and uses up all available ventilators.

H1N1 killed an estimated 3,600 Canadians over six or seven years.

COVID19 has already claimed 228 Canadians in two weeks, and Ontario is projecting of 3,000-15,000 deaths in the next two years in our province alone.

It would probably be better if this was a flu pandemic since we have vaccines and what not. 

Edit: should add that COVID19 is a SARS (Severe Accurate Respiratory Syndrome). We last dealt with SARS in 2002/2003 and they were able to contain it. This one not so much.

[Chicago Storm]

8,904 cases and 210 deaths total now in IL.


.

10,357 cases and 243 deaths as of today in IL.


.

[wisconsinwx]

I wonder if some of the asymptomatic cases had loss of smell or taste but didn't realize it because it's not a standard symptom of cold/flu by itself.  That might help us eliminate some of the guesswork if there are some who have that symptom alone and we told them to isolate themselves.

[Baum]

2 hours ago, on_wx said:

Novel coronaviruses are different than the flu. The problem is that you develop difficulties breathing/pneumonia and require hospitalization at greater numbers. If you end up on a ventilator to breathe, then you are on that ventilator until you're immune system fights off the pneumonia, or you die. Unfortunately the process of healing can take several weeks which takes up hospital space and uses up all available ventilators.

H1N1 killed an estimated 3,600 Canadians over six or seven years.

COVID19 has already claimed 228 Canadians in two weeks, and Ontario is projecting of 3,000-15,000 deaths in the next two years in our province alone.

It would probably be better if this was a flu pandemic since we have vaccines and what not. 

Edit: should add that COVID19 is a SARS (Severe Accurate Respiratory Syndrome). We last dealt with SARS in 2002/2003 and they were able to contain it. This one not so much.

Thank you for a clear cut understanding of the difference. Much appreciated.

[Jackstraw]

Link to the video I posted yesterday that does a pretty good job of explaining why this isn't like the flu.  He originally posted his first one on the 19th of March.  Someone cut out a piece of it and it started spreading around social media like wildfire giving the look that he was totally inaccurate which was typical social media BS and unfortunate.  I think he does a good job of graphically comparing this virus with past data from the big ones in the 20th century.  I've also roughly fact checked a lot of the numbers he uses and they seem to be pretty accurate.

And a disclaimer I am nowhere near a professional.  Just like many on here I'm stuck at home and spend a lot of time trying to filter through the BS and find the science.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz1bGzYdRdk

Link to his comparisons back on the 19th...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4no04822NQ&t=6s

 

[sokolow]

Chicago crew has best Stern Mayor Quarantine Memes

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

I have seen enough Lightfoot memes in the past few days to last a lifetime.  

[Baum]

Has anybody heard how Japan is doing and what type of lock downs they have in place? 

[michsnowfreak]

Years down the road when we look back on this pandemic, it's going to seem so ridiculous that some Americans were willing to risk their lives because they could not stay cooped up in their homes were a few months. Stay home, stay healthy!

[Baum]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Years down the road when we look back on this pandemic, it's going to seem so ridiculous that some Americans were willing to risk their lives because they could not stay cooped up in their homes were a few months. Stay home, stay healthy!

While I can't predict the eventual fall out from this, and the debate that will rage after the fact, in my area I'm not seeing the idea that people aren't doing what's necessary. Take a look at the unemployment rate, closed businesses, sports shut down and so on.....strangely public transportation still operates. And as I said yesterday, my local grocer is pretty much vacant, and people stay well away from anyone. You'd think in a hot spot like your area this would be the same. Truth be, folks look scared shitless...

[Hoosier]

Went on a quick errand and while traffic was down quite a bit compared to a typical Saturday evening, there were probably still more cars than there should've been.

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, Baum said:

While I can't predict the eventual fall out from this, and the debate that will rage after the fact, in my area I'm not seeing the idea that people aren't doing what's necessary. Take a look at the unemployment rate, closed businesses, sports shut down and so on.....strangely public transportation still operates. And as I said yesterday, my local grocer is pretty much vacant, and people stay well away from anyone. You'd think in a hot spot like your area this would be the same. Truth be, folks look scared shitless...

Oh it absolutely is in my area, same as you describe. I literally have not left my house in 9 days and that was just for a quick protected sanitize grocery trip. Do not plan to leave for some other time either. However word on the street is that everything is pretty empty. As was posted in a link above, metro Detroit is getting an A to B for social distancing. Not sure about Chicago but I think they're doing pretty good too. My comment was in reference to the widespread coverage that people outside of the heavily populated metro areas are not taking this as seriously.