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27 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Officials predicting 3-15k deaths here in Ontario based on current interventions (could have approached 100k with no action, which seems unfathomable as we only have 14 million people/almost 1% of the population would die).  Still sitting at less than 100 deaths thus far, so either we've got a long way to go or maybe things will turn out better than predicted. 

3-15K alone is devastating but 100K is just catastrophic. We've seen over 400 cases a day now for the last few days. Apparently were not testing as vigorously as other countries are so that number could be a lot higher. Correct me if I'm wrong tho. 

I don't know if you've heard but some family in Brampton got fined 100K for throwing a "party" despite Ford prohibiting gatherings of more than 5 people. My WFH got extended till May 1 now and I suspect it may get extended again as we approach the end of the month. April will be a rough month but if these social distancing measures are increasingly forced, then May can end up a lot better. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

3-15K alone is devastating but 100K is just catastrophic. We've seen over 400 cases a day now for the last few days. Apparently were not testing as vigorously as other countries are so that number could be a lot higher. Correct me if I'm wrong tho. 

I don't know if you've heard but some family in Brampton got fined 100K for throwing a "party" despite Ford prohibiting gatherings of more than 5 people. My WFH got extended till May 1 now and I suspect it may get extended again as we approach the end of the month. April will be a rough month but if these social distancing measures are increasingly forced, then May can end up a lot better. 

Yeah, I've heard the same thing about the testing.  Interesting in the news conference, Dr. Donnelly stated the projections were based only on confirmed cases.  We know that the actual cases are probably at least 5-10x the reported ones, but he seemed to reject that that has any bearing on the accuracy of the projections.  They're the experts, so I guess I'll defer to them.

Yeah, I heard about that in Brampton.  The $100,000 fine is the maximum prescribed by the statute.  It'll be in the hands of a judge to actually impose that sentence; likely it will much less.  That being said, some of these idiots removing barricades to access the park parking lots should get that fine, and maybe a couple of wacks by the cop's batons.  Complete idiots.

I was supposed to go back to work on Monday.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'm going to be getting an email shortly saying that's not the case.  lol.

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Watching the bigger European countries overall (not just Italy) for trends as far as what happens past the peak.  Unfortunately, even when you finally get past the peak day of deaths, there seems to be a period where it just keeps hanging around 70-90% of what the peak day was.  Very concerned we will see that here too, especially since we still don't have our stuff together on a national level.  The remaining states that don't have a stay at home order need to just do it already.  Having 80-90% of the country doing it is better than nothing, but as long as it's not all 50 states, it is going to slow down our progress in the long run. 

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Watching the bigger European countries overall (not just Italy) for trends as far as what happens past the peak.  Unfortunately, even when you finally get past the peak day of deaths, there seems to be a period where it just keeps hanging around 70-90% of what the peak day was.  Very concerned we will see that here too, especially since we still don't have our stuff together on a national level.  The remaining states that don't have a stay at home order need to just do it already.  Having 80-90% of the country doing it is better than nothing, but as long as it's not all 50 states, it is going to slow down our progress in the long run. 

That projected number of 100,000-240,000 deaths  Dr. Fauci has been warning is a scary number...though I guess it's not as bad as some of the earlier forecasts of a more than a million. And obviously, the socio-economic impact will take months to filter through. My understanding is 50% of our countries deaths have occurred in NY and the fatality rate has crept up to near 2.5% which is also concerning. 

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31 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

If you look worldwide at the number of those who are now clear after having had the virus or died the death rate is 20%.  Not sure how reliable that is but that is a very high number.

My theory on that is that the deaths are counted almost immediately, while they're is a lag in tabulating those who have recovered since it can take weeks to be free of the virus.  I think once all the ongoing cases have an outcome (either death or recovery), the numbers should align with conventional thinking, with a mortality rate <1%.

And, that doesn't even factor in all the people who have the virus but are asymptomatic, which if factored in would suppress the mortality rate even further.

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32 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

If you look worldwide at the number of those who are now clear after having had the virus or died the death rate is 20%.  Not sure how reliable that is but that is a very high number.

Because of the lag time.  You are contagious with this thing for a long period of time, so a relatively low percentage of total cases are technically in the "clear" or "recovered" right now even though they will end up being fine. 

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39 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

If you look worldwide at the number of those who are now clear after having had the virus or died the death rate is 20%.  Not sure how reliable that is but that is a very high number.

That number is skewed because of the many new cases over the past several weeks. Any time this virus hits a new place, the deaths outpace the recoveries for a short period of time before the trend sharply reverses. It’s just happening in a lot of new places right now.

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17 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

My theory on that is that the deaths are counted almost immediately, while they're is a lag in tabulating those who have recovered since it can take weeks to be free of the virus.  I think once all the ongoing cases have an outcome (either death or recovery), the numbers should align with conventional thinking, with a mortality rate <1%.

And, that doesn't even factor in all the people who have the virus but are asymptomatic, which if factored in would suppress the mortality rate even further.

 

48 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

If you look worldwide at the number of those who are now clear after having had the virus or died the death rate is 20%.  Not sure how reliable that is but that is a very high number.

its also because most people with mild to moderate symptoms are not going to get tested a second time to see if they are negative for the virus so theres no easy way to add them to the recovered statistic

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Just weighing in on this living in the NW burbs of Chicago. First and foremost all the healthcare workers, grocery store clerks, and all other essential jobs that are needed my sincerest thanks. Also sympathy and understanding for all those who have to go to work and can't work virtually from home to provide income for themselves and their families.  I do find it disconcerting the behavior of some of my neighbors and I am sure that is being mirrored throughout the suburbs. All you have to do is glance 20-40 miles east into Chicago proper or look at NewYork,  Italy or Louisiana for that matter to see what kind of protocols are being followed.Here in my own subdivision I see playdates with other people's kids, neighbors still over at other  neighbors but you know their 72" apart so its all good. Joggers, bikers, parents teaching their kids to ride a bike for the first time etc..It seems until cases start happening in their own area they seem to be marginalizing the spirit of social distancing. We have been home inside for the better part of three weeks and having groceries delivered. I started the car just to drive it a bit. Went by Walmart packed. Portillos drive thru line packed, curb side service with cars separated the minimum distance and packed. Leads me to believe suburbs will ramp up with cases just delayed from the major urban areas by a few weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see our peaks in May to early June.

 

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warm humid  weather will stop the virus?

Corpses Lie For Days As Ecuador Struggles To Keep Up With COVID-19 Deaths

Ecuador is one of the smallest countries in South America but it is dealing with one of the region's worst outbreaks of COVID-19, with more than 3,100 identified infections and 120 deaths.

The epicenter of the country's outbreak is the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, where bodies are lying in the streets.

 

As a result, the bodies of people who have died in their homes due to COVID-19 and other illnesses often lie for days, wrapped in bed sheets and plastic and decomposing in the tropical heat as relatives watch over them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826675439/corpses-lie-for-days-as-ecuador-struggles-to-keep-up-with-covid-19-deaths

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, I've heard the same thing about the testing.  Interesting in the news conference, Dr. Donnelly stated the projections were based only on confirmed cases.  We know that the actual cases are probably at least 5-10x the reported ones, but he seemed to reject that that has any bearing on the accuracy of the projections.  They're the experts, so I guess I'll defer to them.

Yeah, I heard about that in Brampton.  The $100,000 fine is the maximum prescribed by the statute.  It'll be in the hands of a judge to actually impose that sentence; likely it will much less.  That being said, some of these idiots removing barricades to access the park parking lots should get that fine, and maybe a couple of wacks by the cop's batons.  Complete idiots.

I was supposed to go back to work on Monday.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'm going to be getting an email shortly saying that's not the case.  lol.

That update today ended my construction work. Have to say im relieved as watching those numbers rise and no change to the list was a bit scary. Currently were planning for a 2 week shutdown but expecting it to last all of April. 

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I was at my local food store. Not many people at all. Most stay far away or head to a different aisle -common sense being applied which is very refreshing. Very concerned given the current projections what the next two weeks will bring. Has anybody seen that video of Dr. Fauci stating in mid-January that the U.S. has nothing to worry about? Eye opening to say the least.

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16 minutes ago, Baum said:

I was at my local food store. Not many people at all. Most stay far away or head to a different aisle -common sense being applied which is very refreshing. Very concerned given the current projections what the next two weeks will bring. Has anybody seen that video of Dr. Fauci stating in mid-January that the U.S. has nothing to worry about? Eye opening to say the least.

Playing it down in mid January is nowhere near as bad as playing it down in late February. Lots of blame to go around though, starting with the Chinese government. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Updates often but for now, we aren't doing great with social distancing

 

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

I can vouch for that around here.  People everywhere today.  Stores that were open were packed.  I turned around outta town.  My county went from 2 to 7 deaths in a week.

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38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Playing it down in mid January is nowhere near as bad as playing it down in late February. Lots of blame to go around though, starting with the Chinese government. 

I'm not a blame guy in times of crisis. The Chinese Government thing is an altogether different animal which will have to play out. 

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

I'm not a blame guy in times of crisis. The Chinese Government thing is an altogether different animal which will have to play out. 

 
although it was very obvious from the start for  those paying attention China was lying....many casual observers  likely thought it was just like SARS only a little worse...( I have been paying very close attention and started daily threads at another forum about this since late Jan)
 
check out these numbers
 
Last 3 days USA 88,631 cases 3329 deaths
Last 3 months CHINA 81,639 cases 3326 deaths
 
China has over 4 times the population of the USA
 
 
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Guest ovweather

I think like with all acts of nature, playing the blame game is useless and solves nothing. Why blame China, Trump, Obama, or whoever for what is happening now? Covid is just another natural disaster, but on a much grander scale. It seems society forgets such viruses are natural occurrences. It’s a reminder that nature is in charge. Like the old saying goes, “Nature put us here, nature can take us away.”

When a tornado or hurricane destroys a community and kills people, we don’t pass blame, so why pass blame for Covid? Sure, maybe governments and communities should be far better prepared for such things, but at the end of the day, only so much we can control. We are doing all we can right now. Other than a complete lock-down of the world for the next month, not much more we can do. But how do you lock-down 7 billion, often irrational, humans? You don’t. Testing will continue to improve and hopefully a vaccine will someday be available. And as we learn more, we will continue to adapt. Hopefully when the next new virus comes along, we will be better prepared because of Covid.

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