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7 hours ago, mattb65 said:

We pray that it doesn't happen, there will be intense evolutionary pressure on the virus to circumvent vaccine immunity in the next couple months which is exactly why the health officials have been emphasizing how this is the critical time to avoid increases in viral replication.

We are really vaccinating fast so I think we'll be able to suppress it to low levels here. Hard to be confident that places like most of the EU countries, Brazil and developing countries will be able to keep it contained enough. 

Might be a bit of whack a mole for a while.  Hopefully we can get the virus suppressed enough that we can get ahead of things with better surveillance to contain things this time.  

Whats strange to me as the virus is mutating with the ability to spread quicker and deadlier, that is pretty rare with viruses as they usually mutate with the ability to spread quicker but less deadly. 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whats strange to me as the virus is mutating with the ability to spread quicker and deadlier, that is pretty rare with viruses as they usually mutate with the ability to spread quicker but less deadly. 

At least part of that may be due to them replicating so fast that critical cases are once again overrunning ICU capacity in some areas that haven't fully recovered from earlier wave(s).

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10 hours ago, dan11295 said:

As mentioned in the tweet above, MI is seeing the biggest spike. PA & NJ also really up. NY has been consistently high. Starting to see IL, MD and MA (where I am) make a move upward as well. Right now the 21-day time lagged CFR in Michigan is ~1.5%. Not far below where it was in December ~1.65% I am hoping this number starts dropping with the latest surge there.

Regarding the breakthrough infections. They are going to happen, we know the vaccine isn't 100% effective. The #1 reason to vaccinate is to reduce risk to hospitalization/death to a low enough level so its not a cause of significant excess mortality. The vaccines are VERY good at that even against variants so far.

If B.1.1.7 is becoming dominant in Michigan, and if that variant is more deadly, then it stands to reason that it would slow down the decline in the CFR as there are still a lot of unvaccinated people out there.  The CFR should still trend down with time but perhaps not as quickly as hoped.

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20 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The concern I have is who is being affected with this brazilian variant. Seems to be affecting younger people more severely. This will be something to keep a close eye on 

I believe Pfizer is like 90%+ effective vs the Brazilian variant. The South African is the one that concerns me. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe Pfizer is like 90%+ effective vs the Brazilian variant. The South African is the one that concerns me. 

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the SA variant may be able to evade vaccines moreso than the others at least in terms of infections/mild-moderate illness, but there's still a marked reduction in severe illness (hospitalizations/deaths).

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20 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Not sure of age, but this sure keeps popping up (more of what is already known)

 

20210330_132027.jpg

Yep, this virus preyed on the unhealthiness of America. That is why countries with low obesity rates had such low mortality rates, quite possibly lower than a normal flu season.  I will say though, my buddy got covid last March was 25 and hikes mountains all over the world could barely breath for 3-4 days there. He sent me a video of him trying to breath and I still have it saved on my phone, it sounded like his lungs were full of water. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm all in favor of everyone getting the vaccine that can, but the vaccine passport that NYS is talking about is a joke. 

Agreed.  It doesn't matter what side of the fence you're on with regards to the vaccine, these passports are a dangerous precedent.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm all in favor of everyone getting the vaccine that can, but the vaccine passport that NYS is talking about is a joke. 

Yeah I can agree with that.  I don't really have a problem with other countries requiring US citizens to be vaccinated before allowing them in, and vice versa, but vaccine "passports" within the United States?  We don't do it for any other disease.  Like, you don't have to show proof of vaccination to attend a concert or sporting event.  The vaccine will soon be available to everyone 16+ and is extraordinarily effective at preventing severe enough covid that requires hospitalization.   

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Indiana opened vaccine eligibility to 30+ yesterday.  Interesting timing for that since it was announced just days ago that everyone 16+ would become eligible on 3/31.  I wonder how many people will even realize that age 30+ is eligible a whole 2 days earlier as the bigger headline grabber was what's happening on 3/31.  The only way this makes any sense is if it's to try to lessen the number of people trying to schedule an appointment on 3/31.  

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