Coronavirus

[RyanDe680]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thats because most likely the damage had already been done. Have to remember that there is a two week lag time. Then you have to account for people like yourself who refuse to take this seriously 

lol.  truth

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thats because most likely the damage had already been done. Have to remember that there is a two week lag time. Then you have to account for people like yourself who refuse to take this seriously 

Damage has been done? Like....those who would be hospitalized or die have already succumbed to both...or what is it?

[dta1984]

5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thats because most likely the damage had already been done. Have to remember that there is a two week lag time. Then you have to account for people like yourself who refuse to take this seriously 

Huh?  I'm saying, when mask mandates were in place, everywhere got a big spike this winter.  The mask mandates made no difference.  Are you blaming those massive spikes on holiday family get togethers? Sure wasn't from the Walmart or grocery stores, as masks are required there.

[dta1984]

5 hours ago, mollydog said:

I was just there this past weekend and in my 400 miles of travel around Dallas, I would say that number falls around 15-20%.

I will say this...my winter skin was kissed by the Texan sun in as little as 15 minutes. I was wearing some sunscreen. So the minute the virus laden spittle leaves the mouth it is DOA outside. I also have to wonder if vitamin D levels are on the rise now. Pools are open and most people are eating outside. It is the nicest time of year there at the moment.

Here in Michigan our bodies have the lowest level of vitamin D right now coming off of winter.

Disclaimer: I am not pushing Vitamin D as a cure. It is more a measure of a more robust immune system.


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There is valid evidence that Vitamin D does help reduce infection risk or the outcome in some. 

Goes along with the "staying healthy" theme = much lower risk.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/vitamin-d-may-prevent-covid-especially-black-patients

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Huh?  I'm saying, when mask mandates were in place, everywhere got a big spike this winter.  The mask mandates made no difference.  Are you blaming those massive spikes on holiday family get togethers? Sure wasn't from the Walmart or grocery stores, as masks are required there.

Maybe things would've been even worse without the mask mandates?  

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe things would've been even worse without the mask mandates?  

I think we all try to build a narrative that explains the various waves of the virus and assign causation to policies or lack of policies.  Inevitably there are too many variables involved to actually determine which specific ones that stand out do so due to correlation or causation. Most will just fall back to their preconceived biases to explain things. 

Above is a perfect example - mask mandates were in place but the cases still spiked - aka masks do nothing.  But there's no good control case and how do we know whether mask mandates actually increase our decrease mask use? It's very hard to measure especially since much of the spread of covid seems to occur through family and friends behind close doors.  There's obviously some additional public mixing that contributes to the spread. There's also clearly a strong seasonality to the virus that leaks in different regions at different times. 

I don't envy the policy makers at all in all of this because many of the decisions they are making are lose-lose situations. 

Thankfully I think this current wave will be much smaller than before,  much less deadly and that ultimately the vaccines give us the silver bullet we need to come out of this. I'm impressed by the way vaccines got through all the regulatory hurdles under Trump incredibly fast and glad the Biden administration took over when they did to improve the delivery and distribution problems. 

[mattb65]

Many have been speculating that the Michigan surge may skew hospitalizations towards a younger cohort due to vaccinations and also likely lead to less mortality from this wave of infections. 

This far it looks like the first point is bearing out and probably the cfr will be lower this round due to vaccinations. 

Really interesting article discussing this https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/03/michigan-sees-alarming-increase-in-covid-19-hospitalizations-among-unvaccinated-adults.html

 

As more and more great data continues to confirm the vaccine trial data in real world scenarios,  the hesitancy will hopefully continue to decline. There is almost no rational reason to avoid getting the vaccine. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I've been sick for the last few days with around 100 fever, cough, chills, ear ache, headache. No covid, just the common cold. There are other viruses out there, I am proof!

[Nickysixes]

7 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Huh?  I'm saying, when mask mandates were in place, everywhere got a big spike this winter.  The mask mandates made no difference.  Are you blaming those massive spikes on holiday family get togethers? Sure wasn't from the Walmart or grocery stores, as masks are required there.

This is because, at least here in Michigan, hygiene has always been an issue. Now, put on top of that the fact that 90%+ of the populace  are wearing the same mask for weeks at a time and they STILL can't understand the correlation to rising infection rates

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Nickysixes said:

This is because, at least here in Michigan, hygiene has always been an issue. Now, put on top of that the fact that 90%+ of the populace  are wearing the same mask for weeks at a time and they STILL can't understand the correlation to rising infection rates

People may be gross as **** where you live but those of us in SEMI shower and have cleanliness. Thanks for reminding us how grimy the northern Michigan people are.

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

People may be gross as **** where you live but those of us in SEMI shower and have cleanliness. Thanks for reminding us how grimy the northern Michigan people are.

Have you been to Taylor?

[CorePunch]

8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've been sick for the last few days with around 100 fever, cough, chills, ear ache, headache. No covid, just the common cold. There are other viruses out there, I am proof!

Indeed. The common cold is rocking around here as well. Tis the season. I know many people run off to get a COVID test at the first sign of a non allergy sniffle. Makes you wonder when the end game is? Hopefully as vaccination rates hit good levels people feel at ease with being human again. Getting a respiratory cold is all part of the human experience. COVID rocked the boat in that regards. 

[Nickysixes]

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

People may be gross as **** where you live but those of us in SEMI shower and have cleanliness. Thanks for reminding us how grimy the northern Michigan people are.

See it daily

[Hoosier]

19 straight days of cases <1000 in IN ended today.

[Indystorm]

Well, I did my part to keep cases lower. Got my second shot of Pfizer yesterday.  Have a bit of a sore arm at the injection site but other than that no complaints.

[RCNYILWX]

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%.

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[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%.

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Your body's response to the 2nd dose sounds like middle of the spectrum -- some have it better and others have it worse.  

In a vaccum, it's like why would a person want to deal with a day or maybe two of feeling lousy, and not knowing just how crappy it will be, but it is not a vacuum of course as we are trying to contain the virus as much as possible.  One thing I am wondering about is long hauler covid.  The vaccines cut the risk of that simply because they cut the odds of getting sick with covid.  But for the percentage of vaccinated folks who have breakthrough covid infections, do the vaccines prevent long hauler covid in them?  Hopefully we get a concrete answer to that sometime in the not too distant future.

[Hoosier]

The former CDC director came out and threw gas on the fire as the origin of the virus.  I mean, anything is possible until it isn't, but it would've been nice to get some compelling evidence behind that theory.  No matter what, there was lack of transparency from China early on.  That is not debatable.

[cyclone77]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Your body's response to the 2nd dose sounds like middle of the spectrum -- some have it better and others have it worse.  

In a vaccum, it's like why would a person want to deal with a day or maybe two of feeling lousy, and not knowing just how crappy it will be, but it is not a vacuum of course as we are trying to contain the virus as much as possible.  One thing I am wondering about is long hauler covid.  The vaccines cut the risk of that simply because they cut the odds of getting sick with covid.  But for the percentage of vaccinated folks who have breakthrough covid infections, do the vaccines prevent long hauler covid in them?  Hopefully we get a concrete answer to that sometime in the not too distant future.

My folks got their 2nd doses of Pfizer last Friday.  My mom had zero symptoms from either shot other than the sore shoulder, and my dad had symptoms like what I had with the 2nd shot (brief fever/chills/hungover feeling).  Funny how it reacts different from person to person.

[mattb65]

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Your body's response to the 2nd dose sounds like middle of the spectrum -- some have it better and others have it worse.  

In a vaccum, it's like why would a person want to deal with a day or maybe two of feeling lousy, and not knowing just how crappy it will be, but it is not a vacuum of course as we are trying to contain the virus as much as possible.  One thing I am wondering about is long hauler covid.  The vaccines cut the risk of that simply because they cut the odds of getting sick with covid.  But for the percentage of vaccinated folks who have breakthrough covid infections, do the vaccines prevent long hauler covid in them?  Hopefully we get a concrete answer to that sometime in the not too distant future.

Like you said, no clear answer on whether vaccines prevent long covid but quite a few anecdotes of the vaccines essentially treating and resolving long covid symptoms in many individuals. This recently published article is an apropos look at this exact question. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/vaccines-long-covid/618406/

[Indystorm]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%.

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Hope you are feeling better and enjoyed that ski trip to Colorado with the big snow.  Haven't heard if you got there ok.

[Hoosier]

Over 70k cases today.  The regional differences are becoming more apparent as well, with northern states generally plateaued or rising and southern states falling.  Hopefully this bit of a rise nationally reverses itself in a few weeks.  Will be curious to see what the daily peak gets to.  Not sure if we'll see another 100k case day coming up, but 80-90k seems quite plausible at this rate.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Hate to see the numbers going up again 

[Hoosier]

Tonight I learned of someone who had shot 1 in January, shot 2 in February, and is decently sick with covid right now.  Not ill enough to be in the hospital but has a cough and lung issues.  There will be more stories like this but the thing to keep in mind is how sick could somebody like that have gotten without having the vaccine.

[BuffaloWeather]

What happens in a few months when there are variants of variants and the current vaccines do little to counteract the new virus? Constant booster shots? Will we have an endless fight with covid? Would the vaccines provide some sort of immunity to a variant that is many times over mutated from the original strain in which the vaccines were based on?

[Hoosier]

Poor Brazil

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/younger-brazilians-are-dying-from-covid-in-an-alarming-new-shift/ar-BB1f0nLa?ocid=uxbndlbing

[mattb65]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What happens in a few months when there are variants of variants and the current vaccines do little to counteract the new virus? Constant booster shots? Will we have an endless fight with covid? Would the vaccines provide some sort of immunity to a variant that is many times over mutated from the original strain in which the vaccines were based on?

We pray that it doesn't happen, there will be intense evolutionary pressure on the virus to circumvent vaccine immunity in the next couple months which is exactly why the health officials have been emphasizing how this is the critical time to avoid increases in viral replication.

We are really vaccinating fast so I think we'll be able to suppress it to low levels here. Hard to be confident that places like most of the EU countries, Brazil and developing countries will be able to keep it contained enough. 

Might be a bit of whack a mole for a while.  Hopefully we can get the virus suppressed enough that we can get ahead of things with better surveillance to contain things this time.  

[dan11295]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hate to see the numbers going up again 

As mentioned in the tweet above, MI is seeing the biggest spike. PA & NJ also really up. NY has been consistently high. Starting to see IL, MD and MA (where I am) make a move upward as well. Right now the 21-day time lagged CFR in Michigan is ~1.5%. Not far below where it was in December ~1.65% I am hoping this number starts dropping with the latest surge there.

Regarding the breakthrough infections. They are going to happen, we know the vaccine isn't 100% effective. The #1 reason to vaccinate is to reduce risk to hospitalization/death to a low enough level so its not a cause of significant excess mortality. The vaccines are VERY good at that even against variants so far.

[Cary67]

Drove to Springfield IL from my place to receive 1st Pfizer dose. In my early 50s with controlled hypertension. Will confess I was annoyed with Pritzker seemingly moving eligibility from group 1B to opening it up to everybody over 16 on April 12th. Thought there would be a window of opportunity for group 1C. Vaccine appointments are not that easy to come by yet.