Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There will be a slight plateau this month in cases, but then another gradual decline. We're vaccinating people far too fast for their to be another "wave". Those in serious condition have been declining everyday the last few months. Some of this may be semantics. I don't think we'll get a sharp rise/wave that goes crazy, but I think the case numbers go up before they go down. Right now we are averaging just over 55k cases per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some of this may be semantics. I don't think we'll get a sharp rise/wave that goes crazy, but I think the case numbers go up before they go down. Right now we are averaging just over 55k cases per day. Deaths are way down though. Looking at the numbers last year this time I think that has a lot to do with current attitudes. In places like Michigan, New York, Illinois where deaths were in the hundreds daily last Spring really affected the populace quite a bit in how they view the virus. That never happened in the South which combined with political climate made this area so standoffish towards pandemic rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Deaths are way down though. Looking at the numbers last year this time I think that has a lot to do with current attitudes. In places like Michigan, New York, Illinois where deaths were in the hundreds daily last Spring really affected the populace quite a bit in how they view the virus. That never happened in the South which combined with political climate made this area so standoffish towards pandemic rules. I also think people are starting to relax just because they don't know nearly as many people who are sick... I don't know anyone personally who has had covid since January compared to a couple people a week around the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Good stuff "95% Of Americans Who Contract Coronavirus Do Not Require Hospitalization, Study Says" "Studies have shown that US media in particular created a climate of fear by publishing a deluge of negative news in 2020. One Ivy League-led study found that 91 percent of US stories in major media were negative in tone (compared to just 54 percent in non-US media)—even when the virus was in retreat and positive results were being achieved." https://www.thewashingtongazette.com/2021/03/americans-are-wildly-misinformed-about.html?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialshare&m=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 I can see something more akin to a spike than a true wave. We go up in cases for like two weeks and then crash back down to where we were before and then some as it continues to get warmer and more people have vaccinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Got me thinking. We focus on daily hospitalization numbers, but cumulatively, how many people in the US have been hospitalized with covid? Gotta be around a million, plus or minus, right? Over a half million dead but probably a non-negligible number died without ever being in the hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Got me thinking. We focus on daily hospitalization numbers, but cumulatively, how many people in the US have been hospitalized with covid? Gotta be around a million, plus or minus, right? Over a half million dead but probably a non-negligible number died without ever being in the hospital. Per CDC data, total of 1.9 million hospitalizations - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions Edit: this is from August 2020 to within the past week so not including the first waves of the virus. The total number would be significantly more. dta posted above that 95% don't require hospitalization, that's 5% that do require hospitalization which is insanely high and appropriately covered by the media as a big deal. For reference, according to CDC data approximately 1-1.5% of all influenza cases require hospitalization. When you take the hospitalization rate in combination with how extraordinarily more transmissible covid is compared with influenza it is expected that almost all the news would be terrible about the virus. 2020 was a terrible year for so many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Per CDC data, total of 1.9 million hospitalizations - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions Edit: this is from August 2020 to within the past week so not including the first waves of the virus. The total number would be significantly more. dta posted above that 95% don't require hospitalization, that's 5% that do require hospitalization which is insanely high and appropriately covered by the media as a big deal. For reference, according to CDC data approximately 1-1.5% of all influenza cases require hospitalization. When you take the hospitalization rate in combination with how extraordinarily more transmissible covid is compared with influenza it is expected that almost all the news would be terrible about the virus. 2020 was a terrible year for so many reasons. Ok, so let's say it's well over 2 million. That could be more than 1 in 150 man, woman and child in the United States who has been hospitalized with covid. Obviously the numbers would look worse if you only look at the adult population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Gov Holcomb is going to be giving an update about the future. Will be interesting to see if any significant piece of news comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Michigan has over 1600 hospitalizations now, up from around 900 just a few weeks ago. I don't have any hard data to back this up but you'd think that the average age of those hospitalized would be lower now than in the past, so hopefully any potential rise in deaths there down the road is very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gov Holcomb is going to be giving an update about the future. Will be interesting to see if any significant piece of news comes out. Yes indeed. -All Hoosiers 16+ are eligible for vaccine starting 3/31 -Mask mandate becomes a mask advisory on 4/6, though masks will still be required in schools. Local officials can still keep a mask mandate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yes indeed. -All Hoosiers 16+ are eligible for vaccine starting 3/31 -Mask mandate becomes a mask advisory on 4/6, though masks will still be required in schools. Local officials can still keep a mask mandate. I think the optics on this may end up not looking great. I would bet a penny that we will be rising with cases in IN in 2 weeks when the mandate is set to expire. Of course there will still be plenty of mask wearing beyond 4/6... the question is how much of a dip in mask wearing will there be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think the optics on this may end up not looking great. I would bet a penny that we will be rising with cases in IN in 2 weeks when the mandate is set to expire. Of course there will still be plenty of mask wearing beyond 4/6... the question is how much of a dip in mask wearing will there be. This should go into effect after a certain % of the population has been vaccinated. Indiana isn't at 1 million yet fully vaccinated right? Thats what, 16%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: This should go into effect after a certain % of the population has been vaccinated. Indiana isn't at 1 million yet fully vaccinated right? Thats what, 16%? It's getting close. 970k fully vaccinated, so about 15% of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Pfizer Begins Human Trials of New Pill to Treat Coronavirus https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-begins-human-trials-of-new-pill-to-treat-coronavirus/ar-BB1eSHnp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Hospital numbers are up over 1200 in the past 2 days. I'd like to think that the lag coming off of the weekend is a big part in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Hospitalizations arevup big today 923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 AstraZeneca may have been caught trying to inflate their vax efficacy rate. Unfortunate if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Unfortunate, yes. Surprising, no. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_pharmaceutical_settlements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 14 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Hospitalizations arevup big today 923 Looking at other states besides Michigan am beginning to see not just cases but positivity and hospitalizations starting to rise again. PA and NJ are two examples. Would like to hope vaccinations are ramping up fast enough to blunt another spike in mortality. Even if hospitalization jump a bit if the average age is lower mortality will still drop as younger hospitalized patients have a much higher survival rate. That said there are been new surges in a few countries with vaccination rates comparable to the U.S., Chile and Serbia most notably. Eventually vaccine driven immunity will win out but it might take another month or two to really push toward that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Michigan is really surging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Michigan is really surging. They are definitely one of the lowlights in the country right now. I have been keeping a close eye on their numbers, and now the hospitalizations are almost double of what they were about a month ago. The number of people on a ventilator has been going up too, but at a slower pace. Even assuming that the average age of a hospitalized patient is younger now, I think it is going to be hard to avoid a bit of an increase in deaths there in the coming days/weeks. Obviously we share a border with them, and although we have been pretty much plateaued here, I'm not sure how much longer that can last. At least we are buying some time. With increasing vaccinations, it will be hard to get as big of a rise here as what it occurring in Michigan. A caveat is what happens when the statewide mask mandate ends in a couple weeks, but I don't think it's suddenly going to be no masks, everything back to normal. I imagine a lot of businesses will keep a mask policy beyond early April, but the lifting of the statewide mandate may make those harder to enforce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I swear. Seems like many of you root for the virus, and would cheer for wearing masks into eternity. Take a look at Texas numbers since they lifted the mandate. Take a look at Mississippi's numbers since they lifted the mandate. Doing just fine. But the blue check marks and Hollywood told me it'd be a complete disaster! Doomers are gonna be doomers though, I guess. But the more they push each new doomsday scenario, with masks, DOUBLE masks, and "variants", people slowly but surely begin to just not listen anymore. Some of us who don't lap up everything Fauci and Blue Checkmarks say like a little puppy dog actually want to get out and live life. 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, BigHoss said: I swear. Seems like many of you root for the virus, and would cheer for wearing masks into eternity. Take a look at Texas numbers since they lifted the mandate. Take a look at Mississippi's numbers since they lifted the mandate. Doing just fine. But the blue check marks and Hollywood told me it'd be a complete disaster! Doomers are gonna be doomers though, I guess. But the more they push each new doomsday scenario, with masks, DOUBLE masks, and "variants", people slowly but surely begin to just not listen anymore. Some of us who don't lap up everything Fauci and Blue Checkmarks say like a little puppy dog actually want to get out and live life. Trust me I am ready to get with my life also but we can't let our guards down just yet. We are very close to this being done with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'd be curious to know how much less mask wearing is occurring in those states after the mandates were lifted. If it's almost at the same level as before, then you wouldn't necessarily expect a big surge. If it's much less than before, then perhaps a combo of vaccinations and changing seasons is helping them out. Indiana will be an interesting test coming up to see what happens when you end the mask mandate in a northern state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'd be curious to know how much less mask wearing is occurring in those states after the mandates were lifted. If it's almost at the same level as before, then you wouldn't necessarily expect a big surge. If it's much less than before, then perhaps a combo of vaccinations and changing seasons is helping them out. Indiana will be an interesting test coming up to see what happens when you end the mask mandate in a northern state. Be quiet with your logic here. Fwiw, I didn't get the sense that people in this thread were feeding too much into the media hysteria about the mask mandate issue. So much of the ebbs and flows of this virus seem to be driven by seasonal factors, it's extremely hard to assign causality to the rise and fall in cases. Like you said it's a function of human behavior and the innumerable environmental factors that affect transmission. At this point I'm not sure how much unenforceable mandates on mask wearing affects human behavior. Having said that there is very obvious and clear cause and effect data coming out of Israel, Nursing Homes in the US and Healthcare workers in the US that validates how insanely effective the vaccine is at preventing infections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 10 hours ago, BigHoss said: I swear. Seems like many of you root for the virus, and would cheer for wearing masks into eternity. Take a look at Texas numbers since they lifted the mandate. Take a look at Mississippi's numbers since they lifted the mandate. Doing just fine. But the blue check marks and Hollywood told me it'd be a complete disaster! Doomers are gonna be doomers though, I guess. But the more they push each new doomsday scenario, with masks, DOUBLE masks, and "variants", people slowly but surely begin to just not listen anymore. Some of us who don't lap up everything Fauci and Blue Checkmarks say like a little puppy dog actually want to get out and live life. Crazy how the mask mandates made cases increase shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollydog Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'd be curious to know how much less mask wearing is occurring in those states after the mandates were lifted. If it's almost at the same level as before, then you wouldn't necessarily expect a big surge. If it's much less than before, then perhaps a combo of vaccinations and changing seasons is helping them out. Indiana will be an interesting test coming up to see what happens when you end the mask mandate in a northern state.I was just there this past weekend and in my 400 miles of travel around Dallas, I would say that number falls around 15-20%.I will say this...my winter skin was kissed by the Texan sun in as little as 15 minutes. I was wearing some sunscreen. So the minute the virus laden spittle leaves the mouth it is DOA outside. I also have to wonder if vitamin D levels are on the rise now. Pools are open and most people are eating outside. It is the nicest time of year there at the moment. Here in Michigan our bodies have the lowest level of vitamin D right now coming off of winter. Disclaimer: I am not pushing Vitamin D as a cure. It is more a measure of a more robust immune system.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Crazy how the mask mandates made cases increase shortly after. Thats because most likely the damage had already been done. Have to remember that there is a two week lag time. Then you have to account for people like yourself who refuse to take this seriously 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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