Coronavirus

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hospitalizations are starting to go back up in Michigan, so between cases/hospitalizations, they are definitely bucking the national trends.  Given increasing vaccinations, you'd hope that the number of hospitalizations would be less for a given number of cases than what it was in the past.

Michigan is a potential setback. 

[winterwx21]

9 hours ago, mattb65 said:

I'm a physician,  it's literally my job to review the medical information and assess the risks and benefits or a particular intervention to make a treatment recommendation. Ultimately it's the individual's decision to follow the advice or not. 

I think the @winterwx21 scenario is interesting.  Since he already had covid I would say putting off the vaccine is a reasonable decision considering all of his individual factors but once we know more about the durability of the immune response to infection it'll be important to consider making a different recommendation if vaccine boosters are needed. I'm a little curious why his medical recommendation changed from it coming from his cardiologist to now coming from his primary care.

I have a very good relationship with both my cardiologist and primary care physician. I like to get opinions from both of them. Also I haven't completely ruled out getting vaccinated at some point. I'm reading that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is having less severe allergic reactions than the other 2 vaccines. If it appears that the Johnson vaccine has a much lower rate of severe allergic reactions, it's possible that I would consider taking it. I'm definitely leaning heavily towards not getting vaccinated, but I'm not closing the door on it. I won't even be eligible until May, so there's plenty of time to think about it and make a final decision.

[StormfanaticInd]

I wonder what the average age of those currently hospitalized 

[dan11295]

5 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

I don't know I agree with that. Michigan is a outlier, which may be a data artifact. Total cases really have not gone up that much, if anything, they never quite fell that low.

Michigan cases are up 75% in the past 2 weeks. With positivity up from 5.0% to 8.6% and hospitalizations also up, that doesn't look like a data artifact for me.

[IWXwx]

Indiana dropped the minimum age to 45 yesterday. Vaccinations numbers are really ramping up locally.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Indiana dropped the minimum age to 45 yesterday. Vaccinations numbers are really ramping up locally.

How long are we doing this drop the age by 5 years thing?  At what point will it open up to people 16 or 18 and older?  At least a couple states already have it that way.

[Hoosier]

Real possibility that spring break travel helps spread the UK variant more across the country, so gotta keep our foot on the gas in terms of vaccinations.  Will be paying attention to college campuses later this month and into April to see if there are outbreaks.  They will offer some clues since almost no college age students would've received a vaccine yet.  If we do see increased spread at college campuses, then hopefully the spread out into the community is mitigated by the number of vaccinations that have already occurred.

[Hoosier]

3k new cases in Michigan, the highest daily number there since mid January.

It sounds like there is a little blame game going on, with some blaming youth sports and others blaming other activities.  

[WestMichigan]

12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The "British" variant is everywhere, its irrelevant. Michigan's numbers don't add up to the surrounding states which have flattened cases. Ohio, Penn, Indiana,Illinois, Wisconsin, even its lakes neighbor New York is seeing cases slowly dwindle down. Yet, Michigan's spike. Something is off.

Wish I knew what it was that is "off".  Our governor is going to tighten the screws again is my guess.

[Frog Town]

45 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The "British" variant is everywhere, its irrelevant. Michigan's numbers don't add up to the surrounding states which have flattened cases. Ohio, Penn, Indiana,Illinois, Wisconsin, even its lakes neighbor New York is seeing cases slowly dwindle down. Yet, Michigan's spike. Something is off.

Not quite.....I teach in Michigan and we have tons of kids getting it.  We just shut down our high school due to too many cases to contract trace.  Kids are definitely showing it differently than they were 2-3 months ago.  Way more symptomatic.   

[WestMichigan]

20 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Your Gov. lost that power.

Sort of,  using the Department of Health and Human Services to issue the orders now.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

3k new cases in Michigan, the highest daily number there since mid January.

It sounds like there is a little blame game going on, with some blaming youth sports and others blaming other activities.  

I will tell you what it is, opening the schools back up and opening the bars and restaurants up to 50%.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Not quite.....I teach in Michigan and we have tons of kids getting it.  We just shut down our high school due to too many cases to contract trace.  Kids are definitely showing it differently than they were 2-3 months ago.  Way more symptomatic.   

Bingo, expecting kids to not intermingle is impossible, why school was opened up this late in the year is beyond me.

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

The "British" variant is everywhere, its irrelevant. Michigan's numbers don't add up to the surrounding states which have flattened cases. Ohio, Penn, Indiana,Illinois, Wisconsin, even its lakes neighbor New York is seeing cases slowly dwindle down. Yet, Michigan's spike. Something is off.

Ontario is starting to spike and Buffalo is seeing numbers start to rise again. Though its comparing apples and oranges between the two countries. Ontarios 3rd wave is 1500+ cases a day. 

[IWXwx]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

How long are we doing this drop the age by 5 years thing?  At what point will it open up to people 16 or 18 and older?  At least a couple states already have it that way.

I look for Indiana to do it soon.  Once you get down to 40-45, you begin running into the age of people who won't get the vaccine.

Here is a graph showing the average percentages of the population who received a flu shot in the US between 2010 and 2020.  I'm not saying that the numbers won't be different for the Covid vaccine, but I'm pretty sure that the younger age groups percentages will mimic the flu shot numbers, although they may be slightly higher due to the publicity.

When the State sees the number of appointments begin to drop by age group, they will quickly take the step of opening it up, especially now that the supply chain has stabilized.

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I look for Indiana to do it soon.  Once you get down to 40-45, you begin running into the age of people who won't get the vaccine.

Here is a graph showing the average percentages of the population who received a flu shot in the US between 2010 and 2020.  I'm not saying that the numbers won't be different for the Covid vaccine, but I'm pretty sure that the younger age groups percentages will mimic the flu shot numbers, although they may be slightly higher due to the publicity.

When the State sees the number of appointments begin to drop by age group, they will quickly take the step of opening it up, especially now that the supply chain has stabilized.

Yeah, I would think the covid vaccine rates in the <50 age group could be higher than they are for flu vaccine in that age group.  How much higher is the question.

I am just one person, but I can tell you that I am strongly leaning toward signing up to get it as soon as I become eligible, and I may be eligible as soon as next month at the rate things are going.  Originally I was thinking about waiting until fall, in advance of what I anticipate will be an uptick in cases then, but this thing is just mentally tiring.  Sick of masking and so much hygiene.  Somebody like me *probably* wouldn't get a severe covid case, but you just never know.  It would be nice to have some peace of mind knowing that a vaccine would tilt the odds even more in favor of a milder case should I get sick. 

I am a little particular about what I put in my body.  Have never gotten a flu vaccine and haven't had a vaccine of any kind in about 15 years.  I don't even take ibuprofen for a headache unless it gets pretty bad lol.  I have no problem watching what may be about 150 million Americans receiving this vaccine before me.  That is a tremendously large sample size compared to a few tens of thousands.  The only thing that would have a shot at swaying my mind back toward delaying it would be if cases drop to incredibly low levels in the next month or two... I'm talking like a dozen or two statewide per day, but I don't expect that.  I'm not even sure we'll get it that low in the summer.

[IWXwx]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I would think the covid vaccine rates in the <50 age group could be higher than they are for flu vaccine in that age group.  How much higher is the question.

I am just one person, but I can tell you that I am strongly leaning toward signing up to get it as soon as I become eligible, and I may be eligible as soon as next month at the rate things are going.  Originally I was thinking about waiting until fall, in advance of what I anticipate will be an uptick in cases then, but this thing is just mentally tiring.  Sick of masking and so much hygiene.  Somebody like me *probably* wouldn't get a severe covid case, but you just never know.  It would be nice to have some peace of mind knowing that a vaccine would tilt the odds even more in favor of a milder case should I get sick. 

I am a little particular about what I put in my body.  Have never gotten a flu vaccine and haven't had a vaccine of any kind in about 15 years.  I don't even take ibuprofen for a headache unless it gets pretty bad lol.  I have no problem watching what may be about 150 million Americans receiving this vaccine before me.  That is a tremendously large sample size compared to a few tens of thousands.  The only thing that would have a shot at swaying my mind back toward delaying it would be if cases drop to incredibly low levels in the next month or two... I'm talking like a dozen or two statewide per day, but I don't expect that.  I'm not even sure we'll get it that low in the summer.

I am the opposite of you.  I've had a flu shot every year for the past 20+ years, and haven't had the flu since then.  I had no problem whatsoever saying yes to the vaccine, but I'm much older than you and a former smoker. It was a no-brainer for me. Additionally, I feel much more comfortable going out in public now, although I still always wear a mask when I'm around others.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I am the opposite of you.  I've had a flu shot every year for the past 20+ years, and haven't had the flu since then.  I had no problem whatsoever saying yes to the vaccine, but I'm much older than you and a former smoker. It was a no-brainer for me. Additionally, I feel much more comfortable going out in public now, although I still always wear a mask when I'm around others.

I'm 37 and only briefly experimented with cigarettes and dip as a teenager, so yeah, different risk profiles between us.

I can't say I'll always get a covid vaccine every year or two or however often it will be recommended, as that will depend on how dangerous the virus is in the future, but I personally feel it's the right decision this time.

[BuffaloWeather]

I've taken around 10 Covid tests due to work making me taking them when getting in contact with those that tested positive and the one nurse that tested me say there is no other illnesses anymore, just covid. She says its insane, this graph seems to make that true. Things weren't really that different here the last few months. I don't care how effective the masks are, this is a joke.

New York sees 97% fewer cases of the flu this season compared to last

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/new-york-sees-97-fewer-cases-of-the-flu-this-season-compared-to-last/71-1739760e-7565-42dd-a846-5453509f4597?fbclid=IwAR1R65jAkt3kd7fJ7X2rmMsb-cGOCoaoB8O2LbMC-Jc2Fc86ickI5f2vgf0

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Todays numbers

 

[Hoosier]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Todays numbers

 

The rate of decline is really slowing down now.  It would seem to me that the projection of rising national case numbers may indeed come to pass in the coming weeks.  If the rise in cases is big enough, then hospitalizations would probably rise as well.  If a rise in cases is very subdued, then perhaps we could avoid a rise in hospitalizations.

[StormfanaticInd]

54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The rate of decline is really slowing down now.  It would seem to me that the projection of rising national case numbers may indeed come to pass in the coming weeks.  If the rise in cases is big enough, then hospitalizations would probably rise as well.  If a rise in cases is very subdued, then perhaps we could avoid a rise in hospitalizations.

The equation is different now with vaccines so hospitalizations could keep falling 

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The equation is different now with vaccines so hospitalizations could keep falling 

Sure, that's why I qualified my post.  A small increase in cases may not translate into noticeably more hospitalizations.  If it's something big like a 50% increase in cases, then it would be practically impossible to keep hospitalizations falling in that scenario.  

[Hoosier]

Everyone 16 and older in Illinois will be eligible for vaccine starting on April 12.

https://abc7chicago.com/illinois-covid-vaccine-governor-jb-pritzker-il-eligibility-opening-up/10428597/

[Hoosier]

Here's an age breakdown that shows vaccinations or scheduled vaccinations in Indiana.  Pretty good rates in the older age groups.  The 45-49 age group is already at 23% even though eligibility hasn't been open to everybody in that age group for more than a couple days.

 

[Cary67]

43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Everyone 16 and older in Illinois will be eligible for vaccine starting on April 12.

https://abc7chicago.com/illinois-covid-vaccine-governor-jb-pritzker-il-eligibility-opening-up/10428597/

Wonder if there will be a window of eligibility for group 1C before they open it to everyone in IL. Chicago opens it to 1C March 29th. Cases have plateaued and started to increase by 10% in 14 states and by 50% in Michigan. IL bottomed out at 760 cases but today over 2300. Maybe seeing start of a spike however large that will be. Will see if this has any effect down the road on hospitalizations and deaths.

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Wonder if there will be a window of eligibility for group 1C before they open it to everyone in IL. Chicago opens it to 1C March 29th. Cases have plateaued and started to increase by 10% in 14 states and by 50% in Michigan. IL bottomed out at 760 cases but today over 2300. Maybe seeing start of a spike however large that will be. Will see if this has any effect down the road on hospitalizations and deaths.

If the spike in cases is large enough, it should eventually result in rising hospitalizations.  Less sure about deaths though.  It's interesting when you look at the numbers.  People in their 60s are at least 20x more likely to die than people in their 30s, but the people in their 60s are hospitalized at only 3x the rate of people in their 30s.  Basically, you have a non-trivial chance of ending up in the hospital even in your 30s, but you're way, way more likely to survive the hospital stay than somebody in their 60s.

[dta1984]

Lol "masks are for theater after you've been vaccinated or had the virus." 

Get him senator Paul!   

 

[Hoosier]

The problem with what Dr. Paul is saying is that if you go on the honor system and let vaccinated people/those who have already had covid not wear masks in public, there will undoubtedly be people who don't fit into either category who abuse that and try to get out of wearing a mask.  For now it's easier to just have everyone wear a mask in public.

[WaryWarren]

38 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Lol "masks are for theater after you've been vaccinated or had the virus." 

Get him senator Paul!   

 

Devoid of any other context Rand is correct. However, given the polls indicating that Republican voting individuals say they are the least likely to get vaccinated, and those same individuals were the most likely to claim COVID was/is a hoax and the most likely to resist mask mandates, I’m fine with keeping the theater open for a few more months until we get most people vaccinated.

I don’t trust the Trumpanzees to not simply lie about getting vaccinated and going maskless, creating yet another spike, thus further delaying my return to my preferred Golden Corral location.