OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: At what point does this pandemic become an endemic? Is there a certain threshold? Idk but the weekly excess deaths per the cdc are still in epidemic territory (I think its at least several percent above baseline?) I'm hoping that by early to mid summer it falls below that threshold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We need to get to the point where this is no longer a pandemic. We can't eliminate all risk. I'm a quite certain theres going to be some covid deaths every winter for years to come. Sure, but don't you find it surprising that the CDC would be saying that visiting with an unvaccinated 15 year old kid is just as fine as visiting with a 68 year old obese diabetic who hasn't been able to get a vaccine yet? That is seemimgly what they are saying right now, unless their position is more nuanced and it's just a crappy summary by The Hill. Certainly a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Sure, but don't you find it surprising that the CDC would be saying that visiting with an unvaccinated 15 year old kid is just as fine as visiting with a 68 year old obese diabetic who hasn't been able to get a vaccine yet? That is seemimgly what they are saying right now, unless their position is more nuanced and it's just a crappy summary by The Hill. Certainly a possibility. The cdc guidance if anything has been late to the party. Other scientists have been suggesting that there should be "benefits" to vaccination. The data is becoming more clear that the vaccine not only imparts good immunity but also reduces onward transmission. You dont want to construct this reality where you get a vaccine but then still have to do all the same shit you've been doing for the last year. If anything, that would increase vaccine hesitancy. I'm pretty sure it's just looking at your scenario as a low risk activity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The cdc guidance if anything has been late to the party. Other scientists have been suggesting that there should be "benefits" to vaccination. The data is becoming more clear that the vaccine not only imparts good immunity but also reduces onward transmission. You dont want to construct this reality where you get a vaccine but then still have to do all the same shit you've been doing for the last year. If anything, that would increase vaccine hesitancy. I'm pretty sure it's just looking at your scenario as a low risk activity. I completely agree with this, I think they are underselling how much protecting one is afforded by vaccination and agree that the CDC should give the green light safe sign to a lot more regular activities. Things like going out to dinner is safe, traveling on a plane with a mask on is safe, going to a movie among others. There is convincing evidence of both significantly reduced risk of getting infected and lower viral load meaning if you get infected then you're not as infectious. I understand the hesitation in giving the green light for people to let down their guards too quickly but I think the bigger risk in the near future will be a vaccine demand problem in part due to the underselling of the vaccine benefits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The cdc guidance if anything has been late to the party. Other scientists have been suggesting that there should be "benefits" to vaccination. The data is becoming more clear that the vaccine not only imparts good immunity but also reduces onward transmission. You dont want to construct this reality where you get a vaccine but then still have to do all the same shit you've been doing for the last year. If anything, that would increase vaccine hesitancy. I'm pretty sure it's just looking at your scenario as a low risk activity. And we are pretty close to the point where all "68 year old obese diabetics" will at the very least have had the opportunity to get it, correct? I think you make a really, really good point. My mother is pretty strongly convinced she is not going to get the vaccine and one of her reasons is she isn't convinced the needle will move back the other direction towards normalcy anyways. A great way to shut down the conspiracy theory anti vax stuff imo is to make it clear that less cases means less restrictions. The stuff where people talk about being masked for the next five years based on hypotheticals even with the vaccine doesn't do anything to encourage people who are on the fence to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: O look, some "freedoms" are being returned... A rare time where I agree with you, pretty dumb headline by CNN, the CDC isn't doing anything with "freedoms". They are providing expert advice and guidance... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Idk but the weekly excess deaths per the cdc are still in epidemic territory (I think its at least several percent above baseline?) I'm hoping that by early to mid summer it falls below that threshold. I'd be curious to see if we experience a net drop in deaths overall as seniors and others in weaker health are absent from the population going forward. Eventually things will settle back to where they were, but we could see a temporary drop below normal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Todays numbers Tests: 1,323,141 Cases: 42,579 Deaths: 629 Currently Hospitalized: 39,367 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Not sure anyone in this crowd will be eager to get a vaccine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 6 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Idk but the weekly excess deaths per the cdc are still in epidemic territory (I think its at least several percent above baseline?) I'm hoping that by early to mid summer it falls below that threshold. This would be about 200-300 deaths/day (We have never dropped below 500-550/day since last March). Or course just getting the numbers down that low doesn't mean anything by itself, the UK was average <10 deaths/day during last summer. Ultimately you need herd immunity to finally move beyond the pandemic phase. I am hopeful we are there by late spring/early summer (seasonality/vaccination combo). What next winter looks like is a bit of a guessing game. I am sure there will be some Covid around, Variants with additional immune evasion are possible. But thankfully should not be anything like this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 You can see the snowstorm in the graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Who knew that some guy on Twitter called TheLawyerCraig would become a go-to source for covid info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 I read through the CDC guidelines for vaccinated people, and they actually did differentiate between non-vaccinated lower risk people and non-vaccinated higher risk people. They are advising vaccinated people to still mask up when visiting non-vaccinated higher risk people, which makes sense given their conservative approach to things. Fully vaccinated people can: Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known exposure if asymptomatic For now, fully vaccinated people should continue to: Take precautions in public like wearing a well-fitted mask and physical distancing Wear masks, practice physical distancing, and adhere to other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people who are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease or who have an unvaccinated household member who is at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 More good news Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine neutralizes Brazil variant in lab study as experts warn of rapid spread https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/09/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 CDC Estimates 83 million people have been infected More people were infected since December, but I will need to wait until the CDC provides that number. Looking like the CDC ~.6% IFR that they said was most likely back last May is going to be fairly spot on. A good job of modeling by them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Cuomo just lowered the age requirements to 60 for New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 23 hours ago, Hoosier said: The last sentence in that paragraph is a potential problem, imo. Would like to see some clarification on that. If you happen to have a vaccinated person with mild covid (since the vaccines aren't 100% effective in preventing mild illness) who is visiting with a more vulnerable, unvaccinated person, that person could be in trouble. Time to take the training wheels off and let people think for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Unless the people who think for themselves don't agree with you. I would proof read your own posts. You should proof read. We have to move past needing so many guidelines and overanalyzing them. We've done this for a year. You want to stay home, stay home. You want to interact with other people, then do it. You want to wear a mask, then wear one or two or 3. You want a vaccine, good take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 You want to stay home, stay home. You want to interact with other people, then do it. You want to wear a mask, then wear one or two or 3. You want a vaccine, good take it. that’s not how it works.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: that’s not how it works. . Lol. Unfortunately true, I wasn't saying it was.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Hospitalizations increased a little bit today but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 There are some caveats here but this was tested against real world virus samples taken from people, not lab manufactured. A new lab study shows troubling signs that Pfizer's and Moderna's COVID-19 shots could be far less effective against the variant first found in South Africa https://www.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-modernas-covid-19-shots-174512012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Unfortunately more data that refutes the widely held belief that the virus will mutate to become less lethal over time. With the UK strain, the evidence is pretty compelling that in this instance the opposite is true. Fortunately the UK infection and mortality curves show that we can still win against variants by attacking them with aggressive vaccinations and public health measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There are some caveats here but this was tested against real world virus samples taken from people, not lab manufactured. A new lab study shows troubling signs that Pfizer's and Moderna's COVID-19 shots could be far less effective against the variant first found in South Africa https://www.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-modernas-covid-19-shots-174512012.html Contradictions everywhere. I just posted an article yesterday stating it was effective, now its not? *confused the South African with the Brazilian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Unfortunately more data that refutes the widely held belief that the virus will mutate to become less lethal over time. With the UK strain, the evidence is pretty compelling that in this instance the opposite is true. Fortunately the UK infection and mortality curves show that we can still win against variants by attacking them with aggressive vaccinations and public health measures. Moderna is 94% effective vs UK variant https://www.cbc.ca/radio/whitecoat/how-the-vaccines-we-have-and-the-ones-coming-next-stack-up-against-covid-19-variants-1.5905708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Should a family be allowed to write something like this in a public obituary when autopsy results aren't in? https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/name/kassidi-kurill-obituary?pid=197924552 Here's the story behind it: https://kutv.com/amp/news/local/utah-woman-39-dies-4-days-after-2nd-does-of-covid-19-vaccine-autopsy-ordered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Should a family be allowed to write something like this in a public obituary when autopsy results aren't in? https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/name/kassidi-kurill-obituary?pid=197924552 Here's the story behind it: https://kutv.com/amp/news/local/utah-woman-39-dies-4-days-after-2nd-does-of-covid-19-vaccine-autopsy-ordered Sometimes attribution of the cause of death can help families in their grieving process. I think the article provides a balanced accounting of the facts known so far. It's possible that the vaccine caused her to go into liver failure but lots of other things can cause acute liver failure. With over 300 million doses worldwide, there hasn't been any other widespread cases reported so even if this one is determined to be linked to the vaccine it would appear to be vanishingly rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Should a family be allowed to write something like this in a public obituary when autopsy results aren't in? https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/name/kassidi-kurill-obituary?pid=197924552 Here's the story behind it: https://kutv.com/amp/news/local/utah-woman-39-dies-4-days-after-2nd-does-of-covid-19-vaccine-autopsy-ordered I just went to funeral on Sunday for my wifes great aunt who died from 2nd covid vaccine. However, she was 98 years old. Her twin is still alive and well, she didn't get the vaccine yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Hospitalizations now at 39,148. 693 lower than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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