Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

As a first responder, I got my first Moderna shot today. I'm very happy.

I know someone who is 20 and was able to get the vaccine.  A healthy college student, not an essential worker or anything.  I would hope that kind of thing is not happening too often.

[StormfanaticInd]

Another 4k+ day. Hospitalizations however continues to decline 108,957. It will take some time for deaths to decline unfortunately 

[IWXwx]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I know someone who is 20 and was able to get the vaccine.  A healthy college student, not an essential worker or anything.  I would hope that kind of thing is not happening too often.

I know here that here at least, they schedule people in the high-risk classes based on the time frame that the site is open.  However, the vials usually contain a little more than the number of doses that is supposed to be in them.  By combining residual vaccine, they can squeeze out several more doses.  So rather than waste it, they grab anyone they can to come in at the end of the day to get vaccinated. In our case, they have complied a list of city, county, school employees, and other "essential" residents to call when they determine how many doses they are going to have left at the end of the day.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations down to 107,444

[StormfanaticInd]

If we keep at this rate hospitalizations will be under a hundred thousand by the beginning of next week 

[nwohweather]

Was given guidance from work that once cases are below 500 a day or you are vaccinated we are to return back to the office.

 

It appears the quality of work lately has been garbage, and at least at the corporate level, work from home is starting to be a mess. We’ve fired 3 people in our division and an entire team of 4 in Canada was terminated. It’s became evident some people are not pulling close to 40, or struggling to do any projects. Has anyone else ran into these issues with their company for the WFH folks?

[dan11295]

11 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

If we keep at this rate hospitalizations will be under a hundred thousand by the beginning of next week 

This number should keep dropping with continuing trends. 

You have to remember that 7 states now have >10% of their population tested positive (ND/SD >12%). Real number of infections is generally estimated to be 4-5x the confirmed numbers, That would result in 40-60% of the population actually exposed in those states. Between that, vaccinations and the parts of the population willing/able to be very careful not to expose themselves, the virus starts to run out of people to infect. 

[Hoosier]

The South Africa variant has been detected in South Carolina.  If it's in 1 state, there's a good chance it's in other states as well.  The question is what the numbers are with these variants.

[StormfanaticInd]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The South Africa variant has been detected in South Carolina.  If it's in 1 state, there's a good chance it's in other states as well.  The question is what the numbers are with these variants.

These variants are serious potential wildcards that could set us back.

[dan11295]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

These variants are serious potential wildcards that could set us back.

Current vaccines seem to work well enough against the UK and South Africa ones at least, although some slight drop in efficiency against the South Africa one has been reported. We simply don't have enough good data about the Brazil one yet.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations dropped more than 3k!! Now down to 104k Hospitalizations 

[Hoosier]

Israel a cautionary tale for how fast we can get back to "normal" in the US?

World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Struggles With Virus Variants

(Bloomberg) -- With more than 30% of its population vaccinated, Israel leads the fight against Covid-19. Yet the emergence of more infectious variants is overwhelming its hospitals, showing the long road ahead for the rest of the world.

After inoculating 82% of Israelis aged 60 and more, going into a nearly month-long lockdown and shutting down the national airport this week, Israel is indicating the end of the tunnel may be further away. That dents hopes for a rapid vaccine-driven global recovery after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge at Davos to make Israel a test case for how quickly Covid shots can help reopen economies.

“We see a wave of infection that refuses to decline, apparently because of the mutation,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said at a press conference on Thursday.

As the European Union fights to get adequate supplies of vaccines and the U.S. pushes to get more shots into arms, the Israeli situation is evidence of the difficulty of fighting a virus whose ability to quickly mutate keeps it a step ahead of efforts to contain it.

People who have gone through the vaccination cycle made up 2% or less of those hospitalized, said Head of Public Health Sharon Alroy-Preis, adding that “they were definitely more protected.” Still, not enough people have completed the inoculation cycle to draw conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine, Ran Balicer, head of the Covid-19 National Experts Team, said on Ynet television.

The so-called British variant, 50% more infectious and possibly more virulent than the original virus, is to blame for the inability so far of the vaccination campaign and the lockdown to curb the spread, Israeli health ministry officials said.

Although the vaccine is believed to work against the British variant, the mutation’s more contagious nature means higher infections and hence more hospitalizations. The health ministry’s main goal now is to bring down the numbers of the seriously ill who are overwhelming hospital wards and exhausting medical teams.

The rate of infections in Israel has declined to just over 9% from 10.2% earlier this month, and people seriously or critically ill has stabilized at about 1,100. But the number of patients on respirators has hit a record, Corona Commissioner Nachman Ash has said. More than 4,600 people in Israel have died from the virus, and more than 7,600 people are being diagnosed with it daily.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-struggles-with-virus-variants/ar-BB1dcbHR

[Hoosier]

IHME update has about 595k deaths by May 1.  

They added a new scenario, if you will, to their model, called "rapid variant spread."  That scenario causes a bit of an increase in deaths to 620k by May 1.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations down to 101k. Good news but its a race against these new variants 

[StormfanaticInd]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitalizations down to 101k. Good news but its a race against these new variants 

One thing that may work in our favor is that we have already had so much spread in America that it could provide added protection 

 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Israel a cautionary tale for how fast we can get back to "normal" in the US?

World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Struggles With Virus Variants

(Bloomberg) -- With more than 30% of its population vaccinated, Israel leads the fight against Covid-19. Yet the emergence of more infectious variants is overwhelming its hospitals, showing the long road ahead for the rest of the world.

After inoculating 82% of Israelis aged 60 and more, going into a nearly month-long lockdown and shutting down the national airport this week, Israel is indicating the end of the tunnel may be further away. That dents hopes for a rapid vaccine-driven global recovery after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge at Davos to make Israel a test case for how quickly Covid shots can help reopen economies.

“We see a wave of infection that refuses to decline, apparently because of the mutation,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said at a press conference on Thursday.

As the European Union fights to get adequate supplies of vaccines and the U.S. pushes to get more shots into arms, the Israeli situation is evidence of the difficulty of fighting a virus whose ability to quickly mutate keeps it a step ahead of efforts to contain it.

People who have gone through the vaccination cycle made up 2% or less of those hospitalized, said Head of Public Health Sharon Alroy-Preis, adding that “they were definitely more protected.” Still, not enough people have completed the inoculation cycle to draw conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine, Ran Balicer, head of the Covid-19 National Experts Team, said on Ynet television.

The so-called British variant, 50% more infectious and possibly more virulent than the original virus, is to blame for the inability so far of the vaccination campaign and the lockdown to curb the spread, Israeli health ministry officials said.

Although the vaccine is believed to work against the British variant, the mutation’s more contagious nature means higher infections and hence more hospitalizations. The health ministry’s main goal now is to bring down the numbers of the seriously ill who are overwhelming hospital wards and exhausting medical teams.

The rate of infections in Israel has declined to just over 9% from 10.2% earlier this month, and people seriously or critically ill has stabilized at about 1,100. But the number of patients on respirators has hit a record, Corona Commissioner Nachman Ash has said. More than 4,600 people in Israel have died from the virus, and more than 7,600 people are being diagnosed with it daily.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-struggles-with-virus-variants/ar-BB1dcbHR

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

One thing that may work in our favor is that we have already had so much spread in America that it could provide added protection 

 

 

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

[StormfanaticInd]

45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

I would  think the body would be better prepared but I could be wrong 

[CoachLB]

I’m on day 4 of symptoms. My wife and son have it. My parents have it. Thanks to some a$$hole friend who showed up to visit them who had been exposed and still thought it was a good idea. 

[StormfanaticInd]

My sister finally got over her covid symptoms. 

[BuffaloWeather]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

This article is fantastic

https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-exist-covid-19-variant-guide-t207173

Early lab research on Pfizer's vaccine indicates that it only slightly loses effectiveness against the South African variant, and previous research from the company on the U.K. variant found that antibodies in vaccine recipients' blood successfully fought off the virus in lab dishes.

Moderna said earlier this week that a lab study showed "no significant impact on neutralizing titers," which correlate to protection provided by a vaccination, against the U.K. strain. The study did find "a six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers" against the South African variant, but the company said the reduced titer levels are still expected to be protective.

Plummer said her Cedars-Sinai team does not anticipate CAL.20C will evade the vaccines, but they're actively investigating to be sure. She also believes most other strains and mutations will respond to the existing vaccines.

"It will become very difficult for SARS-CoV-2 at the rate that it's mutating to evade the vaccine," she said, adding that mRNA vaccines were chosen to fight this pandemic because they're "designed to overcome" mutations. Asked why Moderna and Pfizer would need to develop boosters if this is the case, Plummer said the scientific justification would be "an abundance of precaution."

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations are now below 100k!!!! Now at 97k

[fyrfyter]

We talked about this at work during last shift change. We are guessing April or May if things continue to drop, before some normalcy returns.I’ve had both rounds of Moderna vaccine. 2nd round was worse, feeling fatigued and sore joints for about 18 hours. Then it was over.

[ikcarsky]

Israel is up to 56% of its population having received the first jab (Pfizer).  Hard to really understand what is meant by "efficacy" in a real-life setting but data from Israel suggests the first Pfizer vaccine will reduce your chances of symptomatic COVID-19 by 30% to 60%.  Second dose 14 days later boosts that to >90%.  About half of SARS-Cov-2 in Israel is the B.1.1.7 UK variant, so quite promising.  But still lots of confounding variables in play for vax distribution in Israel is far from unbiased, being focused mostly on elderly.  Your risk reduction may vary.

Also noteworthy, the medical establishment finally seems to be talking about antiviral therapeutics in recent weeks (timing is coincidence I'm sure).  Colchicine in particular has received a lot of buzz lately.  Frustratingly the real world benefits of hydrochloroquine (+ AZ + Zn) and especially ivermectin still largely ignored, at least in the West.

[dan11295]

FYI The website that has been linked regarding the HCQ and Ivermectin has had their Twitter account banned for over a month. They appear to be misrepresenting the conclusions of at least some of the referenced studies. e.g:

https://c19study.com/mitja.html

There was a 25% reduction in hospitalization and 16% reduction in the median time to symptom resolution for HCQ, without statistical significance due to small samples. (bolded mine)

Site also goes to length to hide any affiliations.

Notwithstanding, obviously it is important that research on potential treatments continue.

Numbers are continuing to go in the right direction. Deaths I expect to start dropping in earnest this week. Should be <2000/day in 3 weeks. Still much too many of course, but will take time to get there.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Now at 95k hospitalizations. The rate at which we are dropping is really amazing. The vaccines are working. At this rate hospitalizations could be near zero by the beginning of March 

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Now at 95k hospitalizations. The rate at which we are dropping is really amazing. The vaccines are working. At this rate hospitalizations could be near zero by the beginning of March 

Doubtful.  At some point the daily rate of decrease in hospitalizations will slow down.  Let's get it as low as possible though.

[StormfanaticInd]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Doubtful.  At some point the daily rate of decrease in hospitalizations will slow down.  Let's get it as low as possible though.

It should be very low by March. Variants of course are the wildcard 

[RyanDe680]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Now at 95k hospitalizations. The rate at which we are dropping is really amazing. The vaccines are working. At this rate hospitalizations could be near zero by the beginning of March 

I don't doubt that the vaccines are working, but not enough to show in these numbers.  You're seeing a drop as we are coming off the holidays and people aren't having large get togethers like were happening during Thanksgiving, Xmas and New Years - that's what kept the numbers up through January... This drop was somewhat expected.

 

The real test will be into February, as this new variant that is more contagious and perhaps (unknown yet) more deadly.  If we can fend that off, then I would believe that vaccinations play a bigger role.

[KokomoWX]

Some good news when you take a real look at the data...

Source from the daily NYT Covid newsletter:

Quote

 

By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, 
Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 
75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a 
single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have 
been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot.

To put that in perspective, it helps to think about what Covid has done so 
far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 
150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce 
those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.

Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills 
between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 
100 of them.

I assume you would agree that any vaccine that transforms Covid into something 
much milder than a typical flu deserves to be called effective. But that is 
not the scientific definition. When you read that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine 
was 66 percent effective or that the Novavax vaccine was 89 percent effective, 
those numbers are referring to the prevention of all illness. They count mild 
symptoms as a failure.

“In terms of the severe outcomes, which is what we really care about, the news 
is fantastic,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the 
University of Pennsylvania, said.

 

[Hoosier]

For the fraction of people who get infected with mild symptoms even after getting a vaccine, I wonder if the vaccine would reduce the risk of long hauler covid?  The long hauler covid cases occur even in some people who had relatively mild symptoms during the acute phase of illness.