Hoosier Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 of my relatives have gotten the first dose of vaccine. All 3 had some side effects. One had just a mild headache. Another had a more severe headache. The third person had a lot of fatigue. All of these resolved pretty quickly. Since they reacted to the first dose, I am figuring they are going to have side effects from the second dose as well, but hopefully nothing too bad. One of them goes for dose #2 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 IHME updated with 566k deaths by May 1. Daily deaths drop below 1000 after mid-March and down to slightly over 200 per day at the end of April. IHME has had trouble modeling the downside of the curve in the past, but obviously there's a difference this time with more and more vaccinations. Let's hope the numbers come down that fast.IHME has bombed the downside of the curb since its inception. I remember Wisconsin topping out at 750 dead and then no more after July. I bet we get close to a 750,000 to a million dead before this is over. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: 3 of my relatives have gotten the first dose of vaccine. All 3 had some side effects. One had just a mild headache. Another had a more severe headache. The third person had a lot of fatigue. All of these resolved pretty quickly. Since they reacted to the first dose, I am figuring they are going to have side effects from the second dose as well, but hopefully nothing too bad. One of them goes for dose #2 next week. my mom got her second dose a few days ago. so far no side effects at all through the first and second shot other than a sore arm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: IHME has bombed the downside of the curb since its inception. I remember Wisconsin topping out at 750 dead and then no more after July. I bet we get close to a 750,000 to a million dead before this is over. . Depends on how fast we get vaccines into arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Seems like the numbers are really improving here in Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 All metrics currently suggest continued dropping off the peaks earlier this month. Cases, positivity, hospitalizations all falling. Reasonable chance 7-day case average falls below 200k by end of the week. Would think deaths start a steady fall around by the end of the month. Numbers are at such a high level it will take time to get them down though, even with vaccinations coming. The only thing that would throw a wrench in declining numbers IMHO would be increased prevalence in either imported or (potentially) homegrown variants with increased transmission rates. Natural selection will favor such variants as numbers drop overall. Hopefully even if this scenario does come of pass by that time a large percentage of the most at risk have bean vaccinated. This would significantly reduce mortality and hospital strain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Long term, the virus likely becomes endemic producing mostly mild symptoms which people won't need to be tested for, like the over 4 endemic circulating coronaviruses. The exact path from here to there is a bit of a question mark, as it depends on both vaccine uptake and evolution of the virus. We just don't have another pandemic coronavirus to definitively compare it to, although it has been suggested this is what actually happened in 1890. In that case there were waves of varying severity over 4-5 years before becoming endemic. Of course there was no vaccine then nor did we have the tools to monitor virus evolution on short time scales. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The quicker we can vaccinate the quicker we can get out of this. Its just that simple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: The quicker we can vaccinate the quicker we can get out of this. Its just that simple. You know we're probably not getting out of it entirely. Less than 100% efficacy of vaccines plus the 30% of America or whatever the number is that will never take the vaccine will make sure of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Maybe the holiday today is affecting the numbers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 hours ago, dan11295 said: All metrics currently suggest continued dropping off the peaks earlier this month. Cases, positivity, hospitalizations all falling. Reasonable chance 7-day case average falls below 200k by end of the week. Would think deaths start a steady fall around by the end of the month. Numbers are at such a high level it will take time to get them down though, even with vaccinations coming. The only thing that would throw a wrench in declining numbers IMHO would be increased prevalence in either imported or (potentially) homegrown variants with increased transmission rates. Natural selection will favor such variants as numbers drop overall. Hopefully even if this scenario does come of pass by that time a large percentage of the most at risk have bean vaccinated. This would significantly reduce mortality and hospital strain. How much of the drop is due to everything closing back up though, every time we try to reopen things it just explodes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Man Allegedly Hid From Coronavirus And Authorities In Chicago Airport For 3 Months A California man was arrested Saturday and accused hiding in a restricted area of Chicago's O'Hare International Airport for three months. The man told police that COVID-19 had rendered him too scared to travel home to California, so he hid in the airport, surviving on food provided by strangers, the Associated Press reported. United Airlines staff spotted 36-year-old Aditya Singh and requested identification. They said he removed his mask and presented a badge, which belonged to an airport operations manager who reported it missing last October, the Chicago Tribune reported. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/18/958081547/man-allegedly-hid-from-coronavirus-and-authorities-in-chicago-airport-for-3-mont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It'll be a Movie in a couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, Frog Town said: It'll be a Movie in a couple years Starring Tom Hanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:07 PM, Nickysixes said: For those who think paper masks will save everyone... https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-01-15-long-term-mask-use-breeds-microbes-lung-cancer.html Lol now you may need 2 masks .... https://www.insideedition.com/heres-why-you-should-wear-2-face-masks-64335 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I frequently wear 2... a disposable and a cloth. If I'm going to be quickly in and out of some place then I usually just wear one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Some "changes" with the mask mandate coming tomorrow. They will be required on federal property and while traveling, such as flying. Airlines already generally have mask requirements though. Meanwhile, North Dakota recently ended their mask mandate at the state level. I appreciate a different tone from the top, but I'm sticking with what I said months ago. It's too politicized and hard to undo. If you haven't been wearing a mask all this time, chances are you won't start wearing one in your day to day life now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Angrysummons said: Sounds like all mask mandates will be gone by May. Where did you hear that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, WestMichigan said: Where did you hear that? Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the mask mandates are gone everywhere by May. I think a lot more states could have them pulled back by then though (we already see that in North Dakota). Some governors will probably be slower to end them. Also have to keep in mind that the big box stores, etc. have their own mask rules, so there could be some inconsistencies even as the governors pull back. The sociological aspect of all this will be fascinating to watch. Once the mandates end, will some people choose to continue to wear one? Also, if cases start to rise again after the mask mandates end, will there be a quick reaction by governors to do another mask mandate or will they ride it out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Liking the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Hospitalizations are finally coming down in Los Angeles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I frequently wear 2... a disposable and a cloth. If I'm going to be quickly in and out of some place then I usually just wear one.I’ve been double masking for awhile. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the mask mandates are gone everywhere by May. I think a lot more states could have them pulled back by then though (we already see that in North Dakota). Some governors will probably be slower to end them. Also have to keep in mind that the big box stores, etc. have their own mask rules, so there could be some inconsistencies even as the governors pull back. The sociological aspect of all this will be fascinating to watch. Once the mandates end, will some people choose to continue to wear one? Also, if cases start to rise again after the mask mandates end, will there be a quick reaction by governors to do another mask mandate or will they ride it out?Honestly I might continue to wear masks during peak virus seasons. I haven’t had a cold yet this year which is really nice. Nothing sucks worse than blowing snot out for weeks on end in winter. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Another day with 4k+ deaths... will be near 200k cases as well... hoping that this is the plateau and things begin a decline. FWIW, parts of IL are being relaxed a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Another day with 4k+ deaths... will be near 200k cases as well... hoping that this is the plateau and things begin a decline. FWIW, parts of IL are being relaxed a bit. Probably a slow decline for now since the holidays are over but any lag post Monday holiday might make the rest of the week worse. Deaths are a lagging indicator unfortunately so probably a couple weeks before this starts to really drop. Hopefully new cases and hospitalizations remain on an improving trend and vaccinations can finally start making a real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 This is encouraging but deaths hit another record today. Hospitalizations however continues to decline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Down to 122k hospitalizations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 3:46 PM, Angrysummons said: More like chatter in Ohio/Dewine. Cases are coming down and vaccinations will boom February/March. I think people are underestimating the Admin change in terms of production and distribution. There is already some signs of progress from the doses given out. My guess 50% of all citizenry will have it by May destroying transmission(along with seasonality). The 100 day goal is 100 million doses before May 1. That's only 16% of the population. It will take 500 million doses to get things under control. We should have much more information about what's really happening sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 hours ago, Speedskater said: The 100 day goal is 100 million doses before May 1. That's only 16% of the population. It will take 500 million doses to get things under control. We should have much more information about what's really happening sometime next week. Reasonable estimates say somewhere between 20-30% of people in the US have been infected by covid and probably the vast majority still have immunity to the virus. If we have an additional 50 million people vaccinated (~16%) that puts the total number of people immune to the virus at somewhere closer to 35-45% since there will be some overlap in infected/vaccinated. When you factor in the additional 16% being the most vulnerable to serious infection/death then you can see that 100 million doses may be enough for things too be pretty close to under control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 New poll on vaccine support shows more resistance in younger age groups and Republicans/people who voted for Trump. https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/less-40-percent-trump-voters-174038879.html Said it before, but it would be beneficial to see now former pres Trump get vaccinated on camera. Whether or not he has lingering immunity from being infected in October, it would send a message and may sway some people. Say we get to 50, 60, 70% of America being vaccinated. If there's pockets/regions of the country that are running behind the national average, then there's always going to be festering clusters of this thing. Gotta hope the variants don't start getting around the vaccines as well. I would think if the vaccines need to be tweaked in the future that they wouldn't have to go through all the trial phases again, but not sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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