Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 My cousin the hospital administrator is getting the vaccine in a few weeks. She had the option of getting it this week but opted to go in another group. It is being done in phases so as to not vaccinate everyone at once in case people need to take a day or two off of work. She gets the flu shot but even she is a little bit nervous about the covid vaccine. I think it's an understandable feeling with something that is new, even though vaccines in general aren't new of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Months I would think that there's a 5 week lag from time of first shot vs definitive immunity.... figure shot, then three weeks, then another two for the body to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Numbers are continuing to come down in IN/IL/MI/WI/MN. Thanksgiving holiday didn't seem to impact infection curve much here. Hospitalizations are falling in the region albeit slowly. States south and east of the region are still rising. Nationwide we are probably entering a broad peak. Once CA stabilizes (should be soon) we should peak nationwide. But its going to be a brutal 4-6 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Numbers are continuing to come down in IN/IL/MI/WI/MN. Thanksgiving holiday didn't seem to impact infection curve much here. Hospitalizations are falling in the region albeit slowly. States south and east of the region are still rising. Nationwide we are probably entering a broad peak. Once CA stabilizes (should be soon) we should peak nationwide. But its going to be a brutal 4-6 weeks. California worries me. Hopefully its mostly youth that are getting infected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: California worries me. Hopefully its mostly youth that are getting infected Virtually impossible to avoid spillover into the older demographics when you have that level of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, dan11295 said: Numbers are continuing to come down in IN/IL/MI/WI/MN. Thanksgiving holiday didn't seem to impact infection curve much here. Hospitalizations are falling in the region albeit slowly. States south and east of the region are still rising. Nationwide we are probably entering a broad peak. Once CA stabilizes (should be soon) we should peak nationwide. But its going to be a brutal 4-6 weeks. rt.live updated with new values. Here they are for the states you mentioned: CA: 1.16 IN: 1.02 WI: 0.98 MI: 0.96 MN: 0.96 IL: 0.95 Interesting to see the Midwest slowly dropping overall even with Thanksgiving (but it hasn't been enough to offset the rises in other parts of the country). Really makes you think about all the factors at play. More hunkering down? More mask wearing/hand sanitizing? Stricter admission criteria into hospitals? Some threshold being reached where enough people have already been infected and mostly taken out of the "pool" for now, thus cutting into transmission rates? Maybe a combination of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: rt.live updated with new values. Here they are for the states you mentioned: CA: 1.16 IN: 1.02 WI: 0.98 MI: 0.96 MN: 0.96 IL: 0.95 Interesting to see the Midwest slowly dropping overall even with Thanksgiving (but it hasn't been enough to offset the rises in other parts of the country). Really makes you think about all the factors at play. More hunkering down? More mask wearing/hand sanitizing? Stricter admission criteria into hospitals? Some threshold being reached where enough people have already been infected and mostly taken out of the "pool" for now, thus cutting into transmission rates? Maybe a combination of things. Certainly not the apocalypse many feared in the Midwest over the Thanksgiving time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 No idea how to find out, but I'd be curious to know if there has been any drop in indoor dining/bars in Indiana in the past few weeks. Like a self-imposed avoidance since they are mostly allowed to be at 100%. There are a few counties that have capacity limits though, like Marion (Indianapolis) and I think Allen (Ft. Wayne) so wouldn't be fair to look at those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Case numbers this week will be interesting. Nevertheless we still have Christmas to deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 rt.live updated with new values. Here they are for the states you mentioned: CA: 1.16 IN: 1.02 WI: 0.98 MI: 0.96 MN: 0.96 IL: 0.95 Interesting to see the Midwest slowly dropping overall even with Thanksgiving (but it hasn't been enough to offset the rises in other parts of the country). Really makes you think about all the factors at play. More hunkering down? More mask wearing/hand sanitizing? Stricter admission criteria into hospitals? Some threshold being reached where enough people have already been infected and mostly taken out of the "pool" for now, thus cutting into transmission rates? Maybe a combination of things. Because many people were taking vacation and not at work. As I’ve said before, the worst spread is happening at manufacturing facilities and warehouses. It’s what’s helped our company quite a bit, people using up vacation time has stopped a lot of employees from catching it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What is going on with Tennessee? Over 10k cases two days in a row. That's very high for their population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Interesting thought exercise to play out what 2021 may look like. Obviously would expect an overall downward trend (but painfully slow for a while) with more and more people getting vaccinated and then seasonality eventually helping out. This thing is very opportunistic though, so I wouldn't expect that we get through 2021 without some flare-ups in the US. A time to watch is if/when places lift the mask mandates and really fully reopen with more people returning to in-person work, fans packing stadiums, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55308211 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55308211 Another wildcard for sure. By time we get everyone vaccinated we may have to vaccinate again for a new mutation. Hopefully a weaker mutation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Another wildcard for sure. By time we get everyone vaccinated we may have to vaccinate again for a new mutation. Hopefully a weaker mutation We may have to vaccinate all over again even without significant mutations. At this point we have no idea how long that protection from the vaccine will last. The trial groups that received it months ago will have to be monitored for decreasing immunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Even with vaccination increasing, I would expect some outbreaks arise once we truly go back to normal, i.e. packed stadiums, concerts, conferences. As vaccination levels increase, restrictions will decrease - which, for a while, will probably be counteracting forces that keep case counts relatively high for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Eradication of the virus is not going to happen. What most likely happens is at some point the virus adapts to humans more and will become endemic like other coronaviruses. It will then generally produce mild symptoms in most people and wont need a vaccine for it. I.e. it WILL become "another cold". This could take many years. The 1890 pandemic which has been postulated as being caused by coronavirus in a couple of papers, had waves over 4-5 years. By the way, the mortality pattern of that event closely resembled Covid. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29336941/ "Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000)" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Eradication of the virus is not going to happen. What most likely happens is at some point the virus adapts to humans more and will become endemic like other coronaviruses. It will then generally produce mild symptoms in most people and wont need a vaccine for it. I.e. it WILL become "another cold". This could take many years. The 1890 pandemic which has been postulated as being caused by coronavirus in a couple of papers, had waves over 4-5 years. By the way, the mortality pattern of that event closely resembled Covid. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29336941/ "Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000)" Interesting post. While I believe the vaccine is excellent news, I also think people need to get their heads around the fact that complete eradication of this virus is likely not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 58 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Another wildcard for sure. By time we get everyone vaccinated we may have to vaccinate again for a new mutation. Hopefully a weaker mutation Not to make light of a serious situation, but you have to wonder, if they will end up calling this mutation COVID-20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Interesting thought exercise to play out what 2021 may look like. Obviously would expect an overall downward trend (but painfully slow for a while) with more and more people getting vaccinated and then seasonality eventually helping out. This thing is very opportunistic though, so I wouldn't expect that we get through 2021 without some flare-ups in the US. A time to watch is if/when places lift the mask mandates and really fully reopen with more people returning to in-person work, fans packing stadiums, etc. When do you see people actually being able to pack sports stadiums? I have my doubts for the 2021 NHL/MLB seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: When do you see people actually being able to pack sports stadiums? I have my doubts for the 2021 NHL/MLB seasons. Its possible by the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: When do you see people actually being able to pack sports stadiums? I have my doubts for the 2021 NHL/MLB seasons. Pack in, as in 100% capacity? Tough to say as it could vary by state/location. I don't think stadiums will all of the sudden go to 100%. Probably start out with some capacity restrictions and then gradually increase attendance over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I wonder when international travel will be permitted again? Canada's border - land border, that is, - has been closed since mid March. 14 day quarantine for anyone arriving in the country (except truckers). I'm thinking restrictions may be lifted by July, but only if this vaccine has the desired effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Between some semblance of herd immunity and 20-25 million vaccines per month each month, we should be able to fully open up by sometime in the April-July window. NFL season should feature 100% fan attendance by first week of September. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Another wildcard for sure. By time we get everyone vaccinated we may have to vaccinate again for a new mutation. Hopefully a weaker mutation I think its a misconception that most mutations are more virulent. Thought the coronavirus group were relatively stable anyways and if anything over time mutations would favor less virulent strains. Selection would be to enhance and propagate the virus as much as possible not to kill the host quicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Between some semblance of herd immunity and 20-25 million vaccines per month each month, we should be able to fully open up by sometime in the April-July window. NFL season should feature 100% fan attendance by first week of September. Im thinking that NHL and NBA playoffs have some fans in the stands. MLB is the first one to most likely do the slow build. Maybe 25% in April, 50% May, 75% June and full by July. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 technically florida allows 100% occupancy at sports venues, but nobody has tried to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: technically florida allows 100% occupancy at sports venues, but nobody has tried to do that. Nope, but Cleveland tonight on MNF looked the most packed out of any stadium I've seen yet. My one friend kept saying in the summer the NFL won't allow any fans and I said I bet fans go if allowed. That argument has now turned into well I didnt think they'd be dumb enough. Moving the goal posts as I never agreed on the smartness of the idea. We can laugh now at full MLB stadiums in mid/late summer because it sounds dumb but if the NFL and College Football are doing 5-30K fans in the midst of the worst part of the entire pandemic I don't know how you don't think some MLB teams will be going full steam ahead. By July even Canada is supposed to be well over 50% vaccinated and with the warmer weather (as Canadians saw this past summer) the numbers will plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just the Bills luck that when we finally get good we can't even go to games. Our first home playoff game in 25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Music City Miracle II incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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