jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Saturday usually drops off at least a little, but we're over 2200 deaths and almost 200k new cases. As for the hospitalizations, falling numbers are likely due to stricter admitting standards in many states-people who would be admitted a few months ago are being sent home. Here in NY we're back at the April peak for new cases (granted back then a huge number of cases were likely undiagnosed). Several family members-cousins, aunts and uncles of mine either have it now or had it recently. Luckily no serious outcomes yet, they've resembled bad colds or the flu so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Last Saturday had a holiday hangover, so not really useful to look at. If you go back to Saturday the 21st, there were over 175k cases. Today will be over 200k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Last Saturday had a holiday hangover, so not really useful to look at. If you go back to Saturday the 21st, there were over 175k cases. Today will be over 200k. Yep, tragic. It was quite dire here in the NYC area through much of April-trucks stationed outside of every hospital to hold bodies, 900-1000 deaths per day just in this state and corpses placed on Hart Island (essentially where you are buried in NYC when you have no relatives/next of kin) because of lack of space to put them as well as warehouses. Sad to know that some other parts of the country are likely headed to something similar. Vaccines can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 hospitalizations actually dropped by about 80 today. First day in over a month where that number did not increase. Obviously its the weekend (less reporting) and we know capacity is getting strained in some areas. Also number in ICU went up by 90. Just have to hope any Thanksgiving surge isn't too bad. Will get a good idea on that after this week. Regardless our situation is not good. Another note the 7-day average deaths are about to pass April peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: If you set it at 1 in 5 since October 1 and add that onto the estimate ending September 30, it would mean an actual number of cases around/over 90 million. I think that maybe a reasonable estimate. By spring if new cases stay at this rate you might be approaching 40% exposed by the time more widespread vaccinations start to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, dan11295 said: hospitalizations actually dropped by about 80 today. First day in over a month where that number did not increase. Obviously its the weekend (less reporting) and we know capacity is getting strained in some areas. Also number in ICU went up by 90. Just have to hope any Thanksgiving surge isn't too bad. Will get a good idea on that after this week. Regardless our situation is not good. Another note the 7-day average deaths are about to pass April peak. PA again with a horrible number, over 11000 new cases today and 134 deaths. And it seems very spread out through the state, not just the cities (Philadelphia hasn't even reported yet on Worldometers ). They will definitely be under severe strain soon if not already. And that will affect the NYC metro area for sure with the number of commuters/travelers back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Here's the case and hospitalization data for Indiana, courtesy of Covid Tracking. Looking closely, we actually started plateauing and then slightly dipping in the days immediately before Thanksgiving. And then the bigger and probably fake "dip" on/immediately after Thanksgiving. But as you can see, we are now essentially back to where we were about a week to 10 days before Thanksgiving. If the upward trend in cases continues and does not result in the hospitalization numbers rising, then it would suggest something changing with the criteria for admission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Hospitalizations are going to eventually flatline because there is a finite limit to beds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Meanwhile Trump just held another super spreader event. Just beyond evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 California numbers are just insane. Another New York in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 We topped 200k cases for the forth day in a row and topped 2k deaths for the 5th day in a row. We lost a total of 15,550 Americans this week alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Hospitalizations tend to plateau when the death counts get high. I suspect the hospitalization counts will rise much more slowly given that so many are dying and thus leaving the hospital. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Hospitalizations tend to plateau when the death counts get high. I suspect the hospitalization counts will rise much more slowly given that so many are dying and thus leaving the hospital. That's kinda what I was getting at earlier. The volume of people getting discharged -- alive or dead -- starts to approach or even outpace the new hospital admissions. I think it's especially true where your rate of transmission value is like 1.0-1.1. If rate of transmission is too high, then new hospitalizations will tend to outpace the discharges since people with covid tend to be in the hospital for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 26 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Hospitalizations tend to plateau when the death counts get high. I suspect the hospitalization counts will rise much more slowly given that so many are dying and thus leaving the hospital. Thats a really good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: California numbers are just insane. Another New York in the making Even on a per capita basis S. Cal is getting very high. San Bernadino County just reported 3k cases with 2 Million pop. LA County is close to OH Valley numbers now with comparable population to states like Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 For those of you fixated on only one aspect of this pandemic - the raw numbers, this health crisis is so often overlooked. http:// https://apnews.com/article/anxiety-mental-health-boston-coronavirus-pandemic-massachusetts-004adb5ee0ef17ff4b5e2e294e36ff3d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Info on the hospital situation in northwest IN. Toward the end it mentions something that was brought up in this thread... sending people home with pulse oximeters and monitoring them remotely. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-covid-indiana-hospitalized-st-1206-20201204-qhflvrxwpbdoxpgqa2pibiflfe-story.html?outputType=amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Anybody remember when 100k cases a day was unthinkable? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Anybody remember when 100k cases a day was unthinkable? We were likely well above 100k cases during first wave if we had the testing capabilities. New York city antibodies were around 20% after the first wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Now 300k is the new unthinkable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Now 300k is the new unthinkable. Catching 1 in 5 means 1 million new actual cases a day. I know so many people with covid right now in the area its crazy. The first 2 waves didn't hit here like the 3rd is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Hopefully the vaccines are rolled out and prioritized the right way. We all remember how pro athletes and other well-connected people had better access to testing early on. Would be even more infuriating if they get to cut in line to get vaccinated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 A guy at my wifes church is in his 50s with cancer and covid and has been on a ventilator for weeks. He passed 2 days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Catching 1 in 5 means 1 million new actual cases a day. I know so many people with covid right now in the area its crazy. The first 2 waves didn't hit here like the 3rd is. Yeah, I was talking about a reported number of 300k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Now 300k is the new unthinkable. I want to believe 300k is impossible but at the rate we are going it just may be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 California with over 14k already so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 California has the potential to turn very ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 High correlation between bad hair dye jobs and contracting covid. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 1:19 PM, BuffaloWeather said: History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. (October-December) Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think. That's interesting. Up here in Canada, they are calling what we are in now the second wave, and it is correlating almost exactly with the second wave of the Spanish Flu pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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