Hoosier Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Was thinking about that Imperial study that came out way back when. Remember it suggested 2+ million deaths in the US if no mitigation measures were taken at all (I think it was over a 2 year period but don't quote me). Considering where it appears we are heading, there's little doubt, at least in my mind, that we would've approached that figure by early 2022 had we let it rip with no masking, no social distancing, no attempts to protect more vulnerable people, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: New IHME update is out. The model now includes a rapid vaccine rollout, including to higher risk groups, and it still projects over 538k deaths by April 1. hopefully not my last bust low of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Cases and deaths look bad again today. Hospitalizations are up in many states and stabilizing(for now) and other states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Pfizer and Germany-based partner BioNTech SE had hoped to roll out 100 million vaccines world-wide by the end of this year, a plan that has now been reduced to 50 million. The U.K. on Wednesday granted emergency-use authorization for the vaccine, becoming the first Western country to start administering doses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 PA over 12000 cases today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Fascinating. Hopeful we can pull this off. I couldn't even begin to imagine the these workers must be under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Pfizer's goal was always a pipe dream due to its style. I suspect the China vaccine will fill in the gap. Yeah, Pfizer is just a logistical nightmare. I fully expect Moderna to become the primary vaccine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Yesterday cases has been revised up to 220,643 and deaths up to 2923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 New York continues its climb. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 We are on pace to shatter the record again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Seven states above 10k today. Seven states also with at least 100 deaths. Perhaps the most staggering is 34 states above 2000 cases!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: New York continues its climb. Not good Yep, not good. We can really take off quickly if it catches fire in the NYC metro again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 From Covid Tracking: - New cases: 224,831 - Positivity rate: 12.4% (+0.8) - In hospital: 101,276 (+609) - - In ICU: 19,858 (+416) - New deaths: 2,563 Noticed the high ratio of ICU vs overall hospital increase. Could be another indication that hospitals are restricting admissions to sicker patients? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: We are on pace to shatter the record again. Got a shot at over 230k on worldometers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The drop in current hospitalizations in Indiana is good from a capacity standpoint, but the news is not as good as it seemed. There were 436 new admissions, which is one of the highest numbers so far in the pandemic. You get discharged in 1 of 2 ways -- you go home or you die. In some states where the R value is hovering a hair above 1, I wonder if it has gotten to the point that the sheer numbers of people dying day after day is helping to free up some space. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, not good. We can really take off quickly if it catches fire in the NYC metro again. It will. Only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 We are looking at worse case scenario here soon folks if America doesn't shut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 We just jumped to 235k+ and Nebraska has yet to report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Ugh @ California 24,000 cases, including 8700 in LA County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: Ugh @ California 24,000 cases, including 8700 in LA County Goodness!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: Ugh @ California 24,000 cases, including 8700 in LA County Wow, that's crazy. I wonder why it's so bad in California? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Wow, that's crazy. I wonder why it's so bad in California? Probably COVID fatigue. Weather wise not much has changed down there. The hypocrisy of elected leaders like Gavin Newsom doesn’t help either. LA should hopefully go down fairly soon due to the new restrictions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 California has 40 million people, so they can rack up huge totals at will. Not to downplay the increasing seriousness there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Hate to be dark but deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. 18.5 days is the average time from diagnosis to death and then add a few days for reporting delays. If you go back 3 weeks and look at the cases that correlate to the current deaths...and apply that same % to the current cases, we are looking at possibly 5,000 deaths a day around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Hate to be dark but deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. 18.5 days is the average time from diagnosis to death and then add a few days for reporting delays. If you go back 3 weeks and look at the cases that correlate to the current deaths...and apply that same % to the current cases, we are looking at possibly 5,000 deaths a day around Xmas. I don't know. I feel like we'd need to see 250-275k cases per day regularly to be talking about 5k deaths per day a few weeks later. Either way, it's a bad situation that is getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Sounds like a good plan to me. "Former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate John Delaney has suggested giving Americans who are willing to take a coronavirus vaccine a $1,500 stimulus check." https://www.wane.com/news/stimulus-checks-would-a-1500-payment-make-you-more-likely-to-get-a-covid-vaccine/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Probably COVID fatigue. Weather wise not much has changed down there. The hypocrisy of elected leaders like Gavin Newsom doesn’t help either. LA should hopefully go down fairly soon due to the new restrictions. Yeah these politicians consistently prove why government is the worst. Denver and Austin’s mayor imposed new restrictions and then boarded an airplane for vacation lol.California’s governor and the SF mayor had a big dinner get together with their families after closing bars and restaurants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Real effects from Thanksgiving should start showing up starting about now. A lot of tests from Wednesday are now starting to come back, which would be 1-2 days after many people would get symptoms (which would be 4-5 days after Thanksgiving generally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Sounds like a good plan to me. "Former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate John Delaney has suggested giving Americans who are willing to take a coronavirus vaccine a $1,500 stimulus check." https://www.wane.com/news/stimulus-checks-would-a-1500-payment-make-you-more-likely-to-get-a-covid-vaccine/ I'm not sure how this would work. People need the money ASAP and many won't have access to the vaccine for a few more months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Real effects from Thanksgiving should start showing up starting about now. A lot of tests from Wednesday are now starting to come back, which would be 1-2 days after many people would get symptoms (which would be 4-5 days after Thanksgiving generally). Maybe very early results. It is still taking 4-7 days to get test results back in many instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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