StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Hospitalizations as said earlier will be the most important thing to watch and right now the trends are not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Midwest "might be slowing down(highly doubtful) but other are pick up fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I-95 was absurdly busy today. Was at aunt and uncles for Thanksgiving and weekend (we all work remotely) and traffic was averaging 45 mph due to the amount of travelers. Was almost entirely New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania plates heading back. Southbound was all NY and FL drivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Someone in my niece's class has covid. Supposedly the last day that person was at school was the 18th. The kids in her class don't wear masks except when they are in the hallways. The class size is small and they are relatively spaced out and have plexiglass barriers. The 17th is when I was at my sister's/niece's house for a few hours. The sinus thing that I had started on the 21st but it seemed to pass just a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The rate of increase in hospitalizations appears to be slowing down in Indiana, although they are still generally rising slowly. Want to see more data to be absolutely certain that the slowdown isn't due to reporting issues around Thanksgiving (on that note, notice what appears to be a "fake" dip around Thanksgiving). Also, even if the slowdown is real, we have to be aware of the possibility of a more dramatic increase coming later in December as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings. Numbers reported on last 7 days: 11/24: 3279 11/25: 3363 11/26: 3384 11/27: 3287 11/28: 3381 11/29: 3392 11/30: 3401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 ^ all that being said, Indiana set a new Monday high in cases today, narrowly beating out last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 PA at 4600 plus hospitalizations and rising pretty quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: PA at 4600 plus hospitalizations and rising pretty quick. Same with Ohio, now over 5000 there. Michigan is also still rising, although not as quick 4300 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group. We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group. We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. I do wonder if that proportion of infections is the same (2x higher per 100,000 in 18-49) since October, or if that has started to shift at all. Could be that everybody is getting sick at higher rates now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections? Yep, I know. Could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Some New York state and Erie county data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 You have to wonder how many people have been infected more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: You have to wonder how many people have been infected more than once. This would be nice to know. We know it can happen, and it may start happening more often as more people become farther removed from their initial infection. It takes some work though to be sure that somebody was infected twice and not just testing positive from a remnant covid-19 infection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This would be nice to know. We know it can happen, and it may start happening more often as more people become farther removed from their initial infection. It takes some work though to be sure that somebody was infected twice and not just testing positive from a remnant covid-19 infection. Still so much we don't know about this virus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 New York numbers are still increasing fast. Hopefully they do not get back to spring levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Am at a loss as to why we remain so ignorant about the virus transmission. Do masks help or are they a delusion. No real answers, just CDC bafflegab, they may help we think.. We know that minks are pretty susceptible, so surely there could be tests on transmission using these test animals. Does anyone know what has been done?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 96,039 hospitalizations. We will most likely hit 100k+ by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, etudiant said: Am at a loss as to why we remain so ignorant about the virus transmission. Do masks help or are they a delusion. No real answers, just CDC bafflegab, they may help we think.. We know that minks are pretty susceptible, so surely there could be tests on transmission using these test animals. Does anyone know what has been done?. Mask help a lot but are not 100 percent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Dr. Scott Atlas has just resigned. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I know most people have been focused on the Thanksgiving gatherings for causing a spike, but what about the start of holiday shopping season? People often spend longer time shopping for gifts than just going to the grocery store. I know big box stores have been implicated in spread in some areas, like El Paso recently. Also might get more foot traffic/more crowds especially if stores slack on maintaining capacity limits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: I know most people have been focused on the Thanksgiving gatherings for causing a spike, but what about the start of holiday shopping season? People often spend longer time shopping for gifts than just going to the grocery store. I know big box stores have been implicated in spread in some areas, like El Paso recently. Also might get more foot traffic/more crowds especially if stores slack on maintaining capacity limits. Just a total disaster all the way around. Hopefully America learns from its mistakes when this is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Just a total disaster all the way around. Hopefully America learns from its mistakes when this is over Trust me, we won't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 If only 20% of the country has been infected, that's basically proof that masks and distancing work. We'd undoubtedly be at 40% at least without those measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Interesting thread suggesting that proportion of hospitalizations to cases has been falling over the past few months suggesting stricter admission criteria as hospitals fill up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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