Coronavirus

[RyanDe680]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The Indiana University Fairbanks School of Public Health has been doing an ongoing study of the prevalence of covid-19 in the state of Indiana.  Their latest numbers really surprised me.  As of November 20, they estimate that only 10.6% of the state has been infected.  The reason this surprised me is that it would mean about 715,000 people have been infected, and we had about 280,000 confirmed cases on 11/20.  So, it would seem to imply that since the start of the pandemic, testing in Indiana has successfully caught about 1 out of 2.5 cases (I understand the lag with testing and getting results, but just keeping it simple). That goes against basically everything I have read.  I acknowledge that there is state by state variance on how many cases have been caught, but 1 out of 2.5 sounds like an awfully damn good success rate.  I was wondering if I'm missing something and there's some word gaming, like does a confirmed case not always equal an infection, but I don't know.

If the 10.6% is somehow right, and I have my doubts, it's bad news as the state has already had well over 5k deaths and vaccines are still weeks to months away. 

I would think 1 out of 2.5 is good considering I’ve seen numbers indicating that testing is catching 1 out of every 8 in some places 

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

I would think 1 out of 2.5 is good considering I’ve seen numbers indicating that testing is catching 1 out of every 8 in some places 

We are certainly catching greater than 1 in 8 now. In the spring it was much less, but not now. I don't think 80% of North Dakota has had it, for example.

[RyanDe680]

Keep in mind that this is only an estimate through September, before the increase.  
 

More Than 15% of Americans Have Had Covid-19, CDC Estimates

By Brianna Abbott

Some 53 million people in the U.S. likely had had Covid-19 by the end of September, according to a modeling estimate from researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Roughly 6.9 million infections had been confirmed within that time period, suggesting that roughly one in every eight cases was identified.

The CDC estimates are also in line with studies that have looked at blood samples for disease-fighting antibodies as a sign of a person’s past infection and arrived at similar conclusions: Many more people have had Covid-19 in the U.S. than have been reported, but the majority of people is still at risk.

“This indicates that approximately 84% of the U.S. population has not yet been infected, and thus most of the country remains at risk, despite already high rates of hospitalization,” the authors wrote.

The report, posted online on Wednesday by the academic journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, doesn't include data from the past two months, when the pandemic has raged the strongest across many places in the U.S.

The seven-day average of new daily Covid-19 cases in the U.S. is nearly 165,000, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Hospitalizations have nearly doubled in November and surpassed highs seen in the spring, pushing rural hospitals to their limits. More than 263,000 people have died, according to the data.

 

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

I would think 1 out of 2.5 is good considering I’ve seen numbers indicating that testing is catching 1 out of every 8 in some places 

Keep in mind it would mean about 1 in 2.5 infections have been caught since March.  Just doesn't smell right to me.  We all remember early on how hard it was to get a test in most states, including Indiana.  We certainly weren't like New York, but the virus was already here a fair amount in March/April. 

The image that OSU posted does show a pretty wide range of possible infection numbers.  

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Keep in mind it would mean about 1 in 2.5 infections have been caught since March.  Just doesn't smell right to me.  We all remember early on how hard it was to get a test in most states, including Indiana.  We certainly weren't like New York, but the virus was already here a fair amount in March/April. 

The image that OSU posted does show a pretty wide range of possible infection numbers.  

Yeah the nature of testing is that there's larger error bars when the seroprevalence is lower. 

[Hoosier]

Anecdotal reports of tooth loss

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/health/covid-teeth-falling-out.amp.html

[dan11295]

Covid Tracking Project showed nationwide hospitalizations dropping by 600 today. although the rates of increase for cases/hospitalizations has slowed, I suspect that drop is an artifact connected to the holiday. Take Texas, supposedly -200 today. Doesn't jive with their case trends prior to Thursday.

It is obvious how much the holiday effected case/death reporting as well.

Next 2 weeks will have messy data. depressed numbers first have of week, then potentially an artificial spike due to backlog catchup late next week (not this is too early to see holiday effects). Dec 7-11 is when you would see any holiday impact on numbers.

[StormfanaticInd]

4 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Covid Tracking Project showed nationwide hospitalizations dropping by 600 today. although the rates of increase for cases/hospitalizations has slowed, I suspect that drop is an artifact connected to the holiday. Take Texas, supposedly -200 today. Doesn't jive with their case trends prior to Thursday.

It is obvious how much the holiday effected case/death reporting as well.

Next 2 weeks will have messy data. depressed numbers first have of week, then potentially an artificial spike due to backlog catchup late next week (not this is too early to see holiday effects). Dec 7-11 is when you would see any holiday impact on numbers.

What a nightmare. 

[dan11295]

Going to be a rather ugly data dump if not today then early next week. Probably about 1600 backlogged deaths from Thursday/Friday.

[Winter Man]

Saw some people dining at a restaurant indoors last night.

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Saw some people dining at a restaurant indoors last night.

Omg how dare them!  Did you report? 

[StormfanaticInd]

Illinois has almost lost 13k people! That's 13k inside of nine months. Truly staggering when you really think about it 

[Winter Man]

4 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Omg how dare them!  Did you report? 

Nah, it's a free country. If people want to jump off a cliff, let them.

[Hoosier]

Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitals just keep filling up. The U.S. government needs to pass a big stimulus so states can shut down without hurting businesses and employees

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitals just keep filling up. The U.S. government needs to pass a big stimulus so states can shut down without hurting businesses and employees

Even Trump is pushing for a big stimulus now

[dan11295]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US.

I suspected the apparent drop yesterday was a holiday effect. The effects on testing and death reporting is obvious. Going to be some nasty data dumps during next week.

[StormfanaticInd]

Vaccines should start rolling out soon but even then you need two doses separated by at least 20 days. Talk about a logistical nightmare 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Vaccines should start rolling out soon but even then you need two doses separated by at least 20 days. Talk about a logistical nightmare 

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid

[WaryWarren]

We're still on target for 500k.

[dan11295]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid

We have to remember the initial vaccinations will targeted for HC workers, first responders, etc. It wont be until we get significant vaccination of at risk, elderly population that vaccination will meaningfully impact numbers

[Hoosier]

Interesting that the Pfizer vaccine has already been flown into O'Hare with EUA likely still a couple weeks away lol

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?fbclid=IwAR0nDQzsVrGJ0cbhk2XBnyYJhTnFnD3NYEYKyipyVPx8zS-ItRz7wyGjoJQ&amp

[dan11295]

Looking at trends is this general subforum area ND, WI, IA are off 20-25% off their hospital peak. They are currently 3 out of top 4 total reported cases/capita. Maybe some herd resistance going on. Don't think it was just weather. Warm spell did nothing in OH/PA or here in Mass. either.

Stuff has leveled off in IL, but OH/PA mentioned above are still not on a good trend. Almost 5000 in hospital in OH and 4400 in PA. both +150 today.

Elsewhere the country trends in California are really ugly. +514 hospitalized today, 8200 total (600 below July peak but could easily blow by that in a few days).

A note on hospitalizations numbers. Some states only count confirmed cases in those numbers (i.e. Texas). So the holiday backlog might be suppressing hospital numbers in certain states.

[Cary67]

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? 

I don't know.  Will be interesting to see the recommendations that come out.

[RyanDe680]

Hospitalizations up 2,400 nationally today and up 9,500 over the last 7 days. 

[StormfanaticInd]

93,238 hospitalizations now. Well on our way to 100k this week. 

[StormfanaticInd]

When the data finally catches up we are probably going to see some ugly numbers then the Thanksgiving wave hits

[Hoosier]

Something I was thinking about is that the surveillance testing that has been going on at colleges/universities will largely be coming to an end for a while.  I know some schools have already switched to remote learning for the rest of the semester.  Not sure how noticeable of an impact this will have overall, but something to keep in mind.