Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Italy... good God. Almost 1000 more deaths. They just have a perfect combo of factors there to make this really bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Bill Gates on coronavirus: 'Extreme shutdown' of 6 to 10 weeks needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 we have chosen to let grandpa die instead, i've come to terms with it, u should too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 If anything this is proof that America's healthcare system is superior to Italy's. We have more cases and far fewer deaths 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, nwohweather said: If anything this is proof that America's healthcare system is superior to Italy's. We have more cases and far fewer deaths They do serve as a good example of why you don't want to overwhelm the hospital system. Some people who would otherwise survive end up dying when they can't get adequate care. Questions about testing aside, their death rate has trended higher over time. When Italy had about 1500 deaths (close to what the US has now), their death rate was about 6.7%. Now it has surpassed 10%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Michigan numbers aren't good. 32 more deaths since yesterday. It is sort of surprising. I would've had it hitting Illinois hardest first because of Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Michigan numbers aren't good. 32 more deaths since yesterday. It is sort of surprising. I would've had it hitting Illinois hardest first because of Chicago. With it so focused in Metro Detroit, one has to wonder if the large Muslim community and it's ties to their native lands has anything to do with it? Citing the "Shoe Bomber" incident, you have to presume there's a fair amount of air travellers that come into/out of DTW to that part of the globe. Edit: Not to mention U of M Ann Arbor has a large foreign student population! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 On 3/26/2020 at 2:36 PM, Chicago Storm said: 673 new cases and 7 new deaths in IL. 2,536 cases and 26 deaths total now. 3,026 cases and 34 deaths total in IL now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Cautiously optimistic of how this is unfolding in Canada. Cases are growing daily but not exponentially (and much of the growth likely a result of increased testing). Right now only 6% of cases require hospitalization, and less than 1% are proving fatal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Truck driver from New York who knew he had the virus drove to northwest IN anyway. Idiot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: With it so focused in Metro Detroit, one has to wonder if the large Muslim community and it's ties to their native lands has anything to do with it? Citing the "Shoe Bomber" incident, you have to presume there's a fair amount of air travellers that come into/out of DTW to that part of the globe. Edit: Not to mention U of M Ann Arbor has a large foreign student population! Chicago has a lot of international travel too. And just the sheer number of people living in the Chicago metro area... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 IL MAY not be in that bad of shape compared to some locations 488 new cases (19% increase)which is a drop from yesterday. ..yet almost 5000 more tests then then yesterday...(30% increase) also about a 10% positive rate..much lower then NY time will tell if this trend continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 U.S. just passed 100,000 cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 39 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: With it so focused in Metro Detroit, one has to wonder if the large Muslim community and it's ties to their native lands has anything to do with it? Citing the "Shoe Bomber" incident, you have to presume there's a fair amount of air travellers that come into/out of DTW to that part of the globe. Edit: Not to mention U of M Ann Arbor has a large foreign student population! wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: With it so focused in Metro Detroit, one has to wonder if the large Muslim community and it's ties to their native lands has anything to do with it? Citing the "Shoe Bomber" incident, you have to presume there's a fair amount of air travellers that come into/out of DTW to that part of the globe. Edit: Not to mention U of M Ann Arbor has a large foreign student population! WTF is this nonsense. Everyone is getting it, doesn't matter age race sex. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing. Random sampling always a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Looks like we are going to have 300+ deaths in the US today. That is probably comparable to a day in flu season but the problem is the trend. Some recent modeling projected 2000+ US deaths per day at the peak (April). Hopefully it's not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like we are going to have 300+ deaths in the US today. That is probably comparable to a day in flu season but the problem is the trend. Some recent modeling projected 2000+ US deaths per day at the peak (April). Hopefully it's not that bad. There's always a silver lining if one looks hard enough. Thankfully, the fatality rate isn't anything close to some other notorious virus outbreaks in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Indeed, that is why some people are still questioning whether all this social upheaval is necessary/worth it. You have only to look at what has been happening in Italy/some other places in Europe and is starting to happen in New York to see why it's necessary. ...and if the US and the rest of the developed world was caught so much at the mercy of this virus, imagine a pandemic of a similarly communicable disease with a much higher case fatality rate (basically the plot of Contagion). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Cautiously optimistic of how this is unfolding in Canada. Cases are growing daily but not exponentially (and much of the growth likely a result of increased testing). Right now only 6% of cases require hospitalization, and less than 1% are proving fatal. Interesting how QC has 2,024 cases and 18 deaths (0.9% fatal) and Ontario has 994 and 18 (1.8% fatal) Has me suspicious a lot are slipping through the cracks here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing. 50% of those positive tests in Iceland were of people who were asymptomatic. Makes you wonder just how many people in the US (and around the world) will test positive right now if given a test? How many people have Covid right now and don't even know it and properly never will unless antibody tests are eventually given? But I doubt that Covid-19 is any different than other viruses in regards to being asymptomatic vs having symptoms. I bet that at any given time, most of us would test positive for some kind of respiratory virus, but it's just we don't know it because our immune systems are working behind the scenes to destroy it. Occasionally, if our immune system / body as a whole is stressed, symptoms of a virus will show and we will feel / be sick. But since there are hundreds, if not thousands, of viruses out there, tests are only given for the really severe ones like the flu and now Covid. Will Covid change forever how we now approach the flu and other illnesses? Will we start self-isolating and practicing social-distancing in order to save hundreds of thousands from dying from the flu and other illnesses every year? Sadly, even when / if a Covid vaccine is available, not everyone will want the vaccine for irrational fears, just like the flu vaccine, so this virus is probably here to stay and will kill every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, on_wx said: Interesting how QC has 2,024 cases and 18 deaths (0.9% fatal) and Ontario has 994 and 18 (1.8% fatal) Has me suspicious a lot are slipping through the cracks here Without question a lot are slipping through the cracks. Quebec includes presumptive cases in their totals. Ontario (and everywhere else, I think) doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 A positive coronavirus story out of Italy, for a change. No doubt she has good genes. She’s not the only 100+ year old to recover from Covid-19. I know a 103 year old lady also recovered. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-28-20-intl-hnk/h_621a06dfd17af984912e4d1c4d94cbac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ovweather said: A positive coronavirus story out of Italy, for a change. No doubt she has good genes. She’s not the only 100+ year old to recover from Covid-19. I know a 103 year old lady also recovered. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-28-20-intl-hnk/h_621a06dfd17af984912e4d1c4d94cbac "We got serological samples, she is the first patient we know that might have gone through the ‘Spanish flu’ since she was born in 1917," Sicbaldi explained, referring to the 1918/1919 flu pandemic that killed at least 50 million people worldwide, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention." Tough cookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Work, aka the circuit court system out here, has indicated that we should at least be prepared for the possibility of another 4 to 6 weeks of remote work. It’s absolutely unprecedented to have the entire court system essentially frozen for any time period, much less 2+ months. IL will be nowhere near peaking by April 7th based on the current trajectory. I assume the stay at home order would get extended at least 7 additional days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: There's always a silver lining if one looks hard enough. Thankfully, the fatality rate isn't anything close to some other notorious virus outbreaks in the past. The biggest silver lining in that article is thank your choice/no choice of deity that none of those had the asymptomatic characteristics of this one. That is what really differentiates this one from the others. Neither SARS nor MERS had substantial asymptomatic characteristics. That is people were sick before they could pass along the virus (That's why the majority of initial SARS cases were in clinical settings like hospitals etc.) therefore once identified a containment strategy could be implemented, ending with only about 8000 cases and about 800 deaths in SARS case, less with MERS. Ebola is a different kind of virus spread by direct exchange of bodily fluids, has very short incubation time and quite obvious symptoms so it is much harder to spread and "easier" to contain when an outbreak occurs. But it is also 1000% more deadly and scary. That's why it gets the widespread attention when an outbreak occurs. What we are slowly discovering is that this virus has much higher asymptomatic characteristics than SARS or MERS. It's starting to look like a person can show no symptoms and spread the virus and/or very mild cold like symptoms and spread the virus. I really think this is the case and this is the MAIN reason this sneaky little booger got on the fast train to where it's at. Viruses by their very nature exploit weaknesses in their hosts in order to replicate (technically they're not living things like we think of, they're copy machines in a sense). This one "found" a weakness not just in our bodies but in our overlying social structure. Double whammy. Force Concentration if you want to think of it as warfare lol. I think in the coming months and years we may discover that this virus possibly originated in extreme rural China months or even years earlier where populations are much more sparse, medical care much more inadequate or non existent, hiding itself as a cold or the flu or pneumonia, originating from mutated bat virus, infecting an intermediate host that has close contact with humans like chickens or pigs for example. (i.e. SARS host was the Masked Palm Civet which is wild caught and served in restaurants in China). That intermediate host is key to interspecies transmission of viruses. A virus just doesn't "appear" out of nowhere at a seafood market in a city of 11 million, it hitched a ride. Wuhan is the major trade and transportation point for central China, makes sense it would end up there, and by so, be discovered there because it wasn't knocking off a couple old farmers a couple times a month, it became focused and noticed when it started knocking off a bunch of old citizens all at once. I've always been fascinated by viruses. For something so simple in structure they are so difficult to predict, and for that matter, prevent. They are probably the oldest most important genetic material on the planet and also the most deadly. Fascinating that single nanoscopic strings of RNA/DNA that aren't really "alive" yet can evolve/replicate on their own and affect, shape and impact all of the complex living biology on this planet. Truly the missing link between rock and life. The TRUE silver lining will be that we get rid of our arrogance that we have teched ourselves into some insane darwinian future, that we be humbled by this little string of RNA, and properly educate and prepare because this viruses really nasty uncle is lurking somewhere. Mother Nature has warned us. Yeah I'm bored lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 This forecasting exercise will come up, so I figured I would post it embedded as this guy works through the inbuilt assumptions. Click thru show thread, 20 odd tweets in chain, no 1-page collated version because thread aggregator was janky for me. Must read for model lovers, cause for cautious optimism and serious concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 File this under "hope I don't regret this" Late Friday afternoon, the city of Hammond announced that its first employee had tested positive for COVID-19. A Hammond police officer has tested positive for the virus, Mayor Tom McDermott Jr. said, while two others who were in close contact with that officer were sent home. The two other individuals won’t be ordered into quarantine, he said, because the city can’t afford to lose first responders at a time like this. "Just because you've been exposed but are not showing symptoms, I can't have them quarantined for two weeks," McDermott said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-indiana-coronavirus-update-0329-20200328-ke5pcj7qlfgqpemdxnagr6yehe-story.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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