Coronavirus

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

At this point it's no longer newsworthy that the federal government is not stepping up to address the rapidly worsening situation with the virus.  Rather, it would be newsworthy if they did.  Unfortunately it was not hard to forsee this happening in the post-election period.  Call your Senators and put pressure on them to get something done.  At least it has a small chance of working, unlike bemoaning it on a message board.

There is one side of the fence that litereally doesn’t give a ****. You can't combat sociopathology.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Snownado said:

Biden is essentially the president at this point. Who cares if Trump is golfing or whatever ? Biden is our leader now. From now on everything bad that happens i will hold Biden accountable.

He has no power yet to do anything. This kind of thought really is dense, especially since the person who is in charge is purposely doing nothing out of spite.

[dan11295]

Cases in the upper Midwest look to be plateauing with a slight drop in positivity. Hopefully its a sign the case  numbers will start to come down a bit at least in the short term. Note that Thanksgiving will probably mess with the data reporting this week.

As far as a spike from Thanksgiving, its almost certain. Even though I certainly won't be, you have many people who will still be engaging in eating a meal probably inside with extended family they don't normally have interactions with. They think that just because they feel fine or got a test a week ago, they are not putting anyone at risk (if they are worried about it at all, which many aren't). Its still a guess on how bad its going to be.

[StormfanaticInd]

83,227 hospitalizations. Continues to grow 

[StormfanaticInd]

8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Cases in the upper Midwest look to be plateauing with a slight drop in positivity. Hopefully its a sign the case  numbers will start to come down a bit at least in the short term. Note that Thanksgiving will probably mess with the data reporting this week.

As far as a spike from Thanksgiving, its almost certain. Even though I certainly won't be, you have many people who will still be engaging in eating a meal probably inside with extended family they don't normally have interactions with. They think that just because they feel fine or got a test a week ago, they are not putting anyone at risk (if they are worried about it at all, which many aren't). Its still a guess on how bad its going to be.

America is just not going to go along with not seeing family on Thanksgiving unfortunately. Admittedly it is a very hard thing to do

[StormfanaticInd]

The data next week is going to be tricky. 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

America is just not going to go along with not seeing family on Thanksgiving unfortunately. Admittedly it is a very hard thing to do

Will be interesting to see the travel data and how it compares to a typical Thanksgiving.  Even if it's down 10 or 20 percent, that would still be a huge number of people traveling.  The act of traveling may not be so risky if you're being careful... it's what you do when you get to your destination.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Will be interesting to see the travel data and how it compares to a typical Thanksgiving.  Even if it's down 10 or 20 percent, that would still be a huge number of people traveling.  The act of traveling may not be so risky if you're being careful... it's what you do when you get to your destination.

So far the last few days have been ghost town at the airport. So maybe some are hesitant.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

So far the last few days have been ghost town at the airport. So maybe some are hesitant.

I'm sure some people are.  The real test is next week, especially Wednesday.  But the airport traffic is only one part.  If people who normally fly are deciding to drive instead, then it doesn't really matter.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like I was right about the early voting in my town of Hamburg. A crowded hallway with a line that ran through the entire building, no one was social distancing. Most had a mask, but few wore it correctly.

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/hamburg-supervisor-suspects-early-voting-a-super-spreader-for-towns-covid-19-surge/article_25e2baea-2c3e-11eb-97a5-17bd5b37dc1f.html

[BuffaloWeather]

Some good news tonight.

FDA authorizes Regeneron’s Covid treatment, taken by Trump, for emergency use

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/covid-treatment-fda-authorizes-regeneron-drug-used-by-trump.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR3TStU97Q44aT5WkM-x1NIXaxuNYOlysVHi5EN3SkYl19arIlEy7VpNQ4o

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some good news tonight.

FDA authorizes Regeneron’s Covid treatment, taken by Trump, for emergency use

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/covid-treatment-fda-authorizes-regeneron-drug-used-by-trump.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR3TStU97Q44aT5WkM-x1NIXaxuNYOlysVHi5EN3SkYl19arIlEy7VpNQ4o

From what i remember, the supply is limited.  They gotta do whatever they can to ramp up production.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just came from the store and the shelves are just about bare. Usually the shelves are stocked for Thanksgiving  but I suspect a combination of Thanksgiving shopping and panic shopping is responsible 

 

[IWXwx]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

From what i remember, the supply is limited.  They gotta do whatever they can to ramp up production.

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

[StormfanaticInd]

50 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

How much will this treatment cost?

[dan11295]

29 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early.

This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

[dta1984]

Good to see people traveling and out spending money again

On Friday, the number of travelers screened at US airport security checkpoints topped 1 million for only the second time since March,

https://abc13.com/thanksgiving-travel-aaa-tsa-air/8171417/

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early.

This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

Think of it this way.  We are confirming almost 200k cases per day.  Now how many of those are considered "at risk", who knows.  Would a 55 year old with hypertension qualify or is that not enough?  Would like to be optimistic but you outlined the challenges well.

[dan11295]

I know the potential benefits of the warmer weather a couple weeks ago in reducing transmission rates was discussed. Its certainly hasn't helped PA very much. They had 6500 cases today, with no Philly,

[Hoosier]

About 6200 cases in IN, which is down a bit from last Sunday.

[luckyweather]

Good to see people traveling and out spending money again
On Friday, the number of travelers screened at US airport security checkpoints topped 1 million for only the second time since March,
https://abc13.com/thanksgiving-travel-aaa-tsa-air/8171417/
 

Outright trolling.

[RyanDe680]

14 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

Outright trolling.

Or just being a Richard 

[StormfanaticInd]

Illinois with another 10k plus day

[StormfanaticInd]

New York has been steadily surging. Hopefully it doesn't get out of hand again 

[Hoosier]

Looks like we're heading to 1000+ deaths.  Bad news for a Sunday and not seen since the spring.

[dan11295]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Illinois with another 10k plus day

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

[UMB WX]

at least 5 slobs passed me not wearing a mask in Restaurant Depot this AM while i shopped. This state rivals the trash down south now and is barely hanging on.

[dan11295]

Today may actually be lower than last Sunday. Nationwide plateau may be being reached.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

Did some math on Wisconsin.  If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected.  The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about.  I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving.  If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back.  Very speculative though.

[dan11295]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did some math on Wisconsin.  If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected.  The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about.  I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving.  If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back.  Very speculative though.

Would think this would happen in the Dakotas very soon. 9.5% of ND has tested positive Would imply 40%+ in state exposed.