Hoosier Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 IHME updated. 470k deaths by March 1. Hospitalizations peak at over 160k. This projection is assuming decreased mobility/increased restrictions with time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 23 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: You know what's another really horrifying fact. That our death toll is now basically equal with Madison's total population. That means we have lost an amount of people equivalent to the entire city of Madison in all of 8 months. Holy s*** that is a lot of people just gone now. And that is not even talking about excess deaths and the people affected by all of these deaths. Edit: Or for all of you don't know how truly big that is. That is equivalent in Ohio to 92% of Toledo just being gone. Or in Illinois it would be the new 2nd largest city in the state. Or in Indiana it would be 93% of Fort Wayne. It would be the new largest city in Iowa. You get the picture. It's an unimaginably large number that is just going to get higher quicker unless we do something. From the beginning it caught my attention that COVID-19 was causing daily death tolls in Italy greater than just about all the weather disasters in the U.S. this century apart from Hurricane Katrina. That's when I knew this was no flu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: IHME updated. 470k deaths by March 1. Hospitalizations peak at over 160k. This projection is assuming decreased mobility/increased restrictions with time. At the rate we are going that would actually be best case seneario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 If the USA holds at 2,000 fatalities a day, that will be 14,000 a week. Assuming a lot of these fatalities were from infections 2-3 weeks ago, then what will it look like in 2-3 weeks from now? 14,000-21,000 a week? I can't wrap my head around these 150,000-200,000 infections a day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: At the rate we are going that would actually be best case seneario. They do simulate what amounts to a "let it rip" scenario. That one leads to about 660k deaths by March 1. I heard they were going to start to factor vaccinations in to the projection, but I'm not sure if it happened on this week's update. And if we're being honest... the vaccines aren't going to arrive and take effect in time this winter for the vast majority of Americans. http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Covid is already an F on the report card. Best case scenario, I'm hoping that America realizes that this shit is not a one-time fluke; rather, novel outbreaks are a permanent consequence of a globalized world with nearly ten billion humans on it. I am willing to bet my life that it will be less than a decade before the next major disease outbreak; and next time, the virus may not be as forgiving as Covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Anyone see the Denmark mask study that is making the rounds? It is being used by some to discredit mask wearing. It has several limitations though and did not examine whether an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to transmit to someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anyone see the Denmark mask study that is making the rounds? It is being used by some to discredit mask wearing. It has several limitations though and did not examine whether an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to transmit to someone else. So in other words a useless study that will get pimped by stupid people as a reason not to wear masks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anyone see the Denmark mask study that is making the rounds? It is being used by some to discredit mask wearing. It has several limitations though and did not examine whether an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to transmit to someone else. Looks like it was more focused on if a mask prevents the wearer from getting sick. Didn't read it all. A total of 3030 participants were randomly assigned to the recommendation to wear masks, and 2994 were assigned to control; 4862 completed the study. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 42 participants recommended masks (1.8%) and 53 control participants (2.1%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 The infectious disease specialist at our local hospital told staff earlier this week that if the public doesn't begin doing a better job of taking precautions soon, the cases will begin to double every week. Sounds like a little bit of a stretch.Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 54 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The infectious disease specialist at our local hospital told staff earlier this week that if the public doesn't begin doing a better job of taking precautions soon, the cases will begin to double every week. Sounds like a little bit of a stretch.Thoughts? That's exponential growth. IF nothing changes, then that's what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: 500k+ fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 36 minutes ago, Frog Town said: That's exponential growth. IF nothing changes, then that's what will happen. You put it correctly, as in a big IF. Right now without federal government assistance, state and local authorities are reluctant to push for restrictions that would strongly affect the economy, so not much is going to change there. Also, it is obvious that there is a large portion of the population that aren't taking universal precautions for a number of reasons and not much is going to change there either until the horrors of the disease personally affects them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Covid is already an F on the report card. Best case scenario, I'm hoping that America realizes that this shit is not a one-time fluke; rather, novel outbreaks are a permanent consequence of a globalized world with nearly ten billion humans on it. I am willing to bet my life that it will be less than a decade before the next major disease outbreak; and next time, the virus may not be as forgiving as Covid. If the lab is still open in Wuhan they are probably working on developing other awful viruses. Who knows, maybe COVID is just the tip of the Chinese biological weapon spear. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEOH said: If the lab is still open in Wuhan they are probably working on developing other awful viruses. Who knows, maybe COVID is just the tip of the Chinese biological weapon spear. If you actually believe this, then you are a spit in the face of every person who has ever had -or will have- this virus. Shame on you and your voodoo bullshit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: If you actually believe this, then you are a spit in the face of every person who has ever had -or will have- this virus. Shame on you and your voodoo bullshit. Please tell everyone what is voodoo about the virus originating from the lab in Wuhan? Dude... you're off your rocker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, NEOH said: Please tell everyone what is voodoo about the virus originating from the lab in Wuhan? Dude... you're off your rocker. Yep, several here seem to be losing it lately. May be wearing masks too tightly sitting in front of the keyboard alone.. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 To return to the drug use discussion, as someone who supervises defendants for the courts; I can say unequivocally that drug use has increased. This is not as a "direct" result of COVID per se, but a tertiary effect resulting from probation, parole, and court systems modify their meeting and drug testing procedures. With many court hearings being done virtually, it makes it much easier for usage to go unnoticed. However, to a certain degree, those taking advantage of the current situation and using would have likely taken any opportunity to use. Drug use is a different pandemic upon itself. Lets not try to compare covid deaths to drug use increases/suicide deaths as if there are equivocal. The are not even close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Look. I'm really not going to waste my time here because clearly neither of you have the foggiest clue about how this shit works, but basically, the idea is that it would be painfully obvious if Covid were a humanly modified disease because there would be a clear backbone genome, and plenty of obvious changes to the backbone. Instead, what we have is a relatively benign disease in comparison to things such as Ebola or Marburg (as you guys love to point out) that is incredibly similar to several other viruses that exist naturally. Maybe Covid was in a lab in Wuhan at some point after its discovery, but it certainly wasn't made in one. Please stop projecting your slowly-loosening grip on reality onto me. Kiss my ass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: Look. I'm really not going to waste my time here because clearly neither of you have the foggiest clue about how this shit works, but basically, the idea is that it would be painfully obvious if Covid were a humanly modified disease because there would be a clear backbone genome, and plenty of obvious changes to the backbone. Instead, what we have is a relatively benign disease in comparison to things such as Ebola or Marburg (as you guys love to point out) that is incredibly similar to several other viruses that exist naturally. Maybe Covid was in a lab in Wuhan at some point after its discovery, but it certainly wasn't made in one. Please stop projecting your slowly-loosening grip on reality onto me. Kiss my ass. But.. But... My Freedomz... 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 12 hours ago, Stebo said: There have been several packages sent through the house some with bipartisan support. It is the turtle slowing everything down in the Senate. Sociopaths, all of them.. Easy to spot them all out now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, NEOH said: If the lab is still open in Wuhan they are probably working on developing other awful viruses. Who knows, maybe COVID is just the tip of the Chinese biological weapon spear. LOL. And if you actually believe this....LMAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: LOL. And if you actually believe this....LMAO. Oh you're right. The Chinese government are wonderful, terrific people who have the best interest of the US in mind. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Local hospitals here in PA creating extra wings and bringing in literally any doctor and or nurse from practices or possibly out of practice possible. Head of health system said if rate continues there is no way possible they can keep up. Sobering to see in your own backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, NEOH said: Oh you're right. The Chinese government are wonderful, terrific people who have the best interest of the US in mind. The vast majority of scientists and scientific papers from all of the world point to natural origin for sars cov 2. I understand the want to go to a more nefarious origin given issues with Chinese govt but the genomic data doesn't support it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, NEOH said: Oh you're right. The Chinese government are wonderful, terrific people who have the best interest of the US in mind. They certainly don't. But that doesn't mean they're cooking up viruses in labs. Do you also believe that AIDS was created by our government to decimate the African American population? Do you believe in Q? What other conspiracies do you believe in? Maybe it's time to step outside and get some fresh air. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: The vast majority of scientist and scientific papers from all of the world point to natural origin for sars cov 2. I understand the want to go to a more nefarious origin given issues with Chinese govt but the genomic data doesn't support it. Unfortunately, conspiracy theorists don't read scientific papers nor evidence-based reasoning. That's why I just laugh at them nowadays. There is no point debating them. They live on the dark web and 4chan message boards. It's sad that many seemingly smart people actually believe this nonsense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Pennsylvania has gone down hill in a hurry. Crazy how fast this virus can get into a area and explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 40 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Sociopaths, all of them.. Easy to spot them all out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I was under the impression that everyone who would consider themselves a weather enthusiast would have at least a basic grasp of science. It appears I was wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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