Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

How are they going to keep that vaccine that cold(-95). Seems like a logistical nightmare. 

(dry) ice ice baby.

But yes, it is a challenge, probably in more rural areas especially.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, Hoosier said:

(dry) ice ice baby.

But yes, it is a challenge, probably in more rural areas especially.

Thats a lot of dry ice. Will there be enough dry ice???

[StormfanaticInd]

Illinois below 10k cases for the first time in a while.

[dan11295]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

Illinois below 10k cases for the first time in a while.

Looks like their numbers may be stabilizing. Would be a good sign.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, dan11295 said:

Looks like their numbers may be stabilizing. Would be a good sign.

Right. Take any good news we can get at this point 

[KokomoWX]

51 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

How are they going to keep that vaccine that cold(-95). Seems like a logistical nightmare. 

I know FedEx has been working on the infrastructure for this and has cold storage facilities on all continents but Africa.  Like many things, the end of the chain will be the hardest to manage.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Looks like their numbers may be stabilizing. Would be a good sign.

Hopefully people don't take it as "yay, I'll have my big Thanksgiving gathering now"

[StormfanaticInd]

11 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I know FedEx has been working on the infrastructure for this and has cold storage facilities on all continents but Africa.  Like many things, the end of the chain will be the hardest to manage.

I see modena's vaccine as being the more practical option as it can be stored much longer in a regular freezer 

[mattb65]

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I see modena's vaccine as being the more practical option as it can be stored much longer in a regular freezer 

Thankfully we have the best and brightest putting together a well organized, well coordinated distribution plan with strong coordination between the outgoing and incoming teams responsible /s...

 

In all seriousness I genuinely hope whomever in the Trump admin is responsible for this has a good plan and will eventually be able to provide continuity with the Biden admin. It's a huge, complex effort.

[dan11295]

I am starting to think we are getting close to our peak average close load. There is unfortunately likely to be a spike from Thanksgiving. But then restriction put into place but some states should begin to have an effect. I think the 7-day average stays below 175k (we are at 160k now). May be a long-ish plateau as some states may resist restrictions longer. I also think (hopefully) we never see a 200k day.

[nwohweather]

I feel as though as the resident Supply Chain Analyst on here I'll chime in about it's distribution.

So will it be difficult, absolutely! But supply chain is in general. To keep tabs on the entire life of the development of a product and rid of inefficiencies is never easy, that's why it pays so well relatively (median salary of $85K, $60-70K out of college). Where these companies are in a good spot to pull this off is that they have 1. Almost no government constraints & 2. An unlimited checkbook with a massive profit windfall. Truthfully government regulations bog things down more than anything, so anyone who is getting 100% assistance from the government is in a great spot. Secondly, these companies can throw gobs of money at it, budgetary constraints are the other thing that can be quite an obstacle.

I think we can expect hiccups at the beginning (implementation is always the hardest part of any new venture) but those kinks will be figured out relatively quick. I'd imagine by Spring we're cooking pretty good with delivery. Honestly the biggest issue I see is Americans lack of preventative care. As a country it shocks me how few people have a family doctor. So getting on that list for your shot is going to be very difficult when you have no PCP.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Wisconsin almost 8k new cases and 40% positive. Not good. 

[dan11295]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wisconsin almost 8k new cases and 40% positive. Not good. 

With the Governors handcuffed with regards to being able to due any mitigation they are really not in a good place.

[StormfanaticInd]

22 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I am starting to think we are getting close to our peak average close load. There is unfortunately likely to be a spike from Thanksgiving. But then restriction put into place but some states should begin to have an effect. I think the 7-day average stays below 175k (we are at 160k now). May be a long-ish plateau as some states may resist restrictions longer. I also think (hopefully) we never see a 200k day.

Tomorrow and Friday is numbers will interesting. Hopefully we have peaked

[StormfanaticInd]

Either way the damage has already been done. These cases from the past several days will start showing up in the hospitals soon if not already. 

[BuffaloWeather]

New shut downs in Erie county here. Went from Yellow to Orange. Schools closed, Gyms closed, Hair Salons, any "unnecessary business", limited to 10 people gatherings, indoor dining closed (takeout only). It will stay this way until infection rate drops below 3% for the county. (will likely take months with winter coming) Going to see loads of businesses closing around here soon. 

[on_wx]

Doug Ford warned new restrictions are coming on Friday. My county moved to Orange (3/5) on the weekend, and our public health has warned we could move to Red (4/5) this week. Most counties in the Golden Horseshoe are already in Red, so we could see lockdown (5/5) issued there on Friday.

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I am starting to think we are getting close to our peak average close load. There is unfortunately likely to be a spike from Thanksgiving. But then restriction put into place but some states should begin to have an effect. I think the 7-day average stays below 175k (we are at 160k now). May be a long-ish plateau as some states may resist restrictions longer. I also think (hopefully) we never see a 200k day.

Going to take a magic act to avoid hitting 200k, imo.  Even if the stabilization places like IL is real, others will probably start picking up the slack so to speak.  I am keeping an eye on testing numbers though.  We still have not had 2 million tests in a day and have had very few days over 1.5.  As long as that is the case, then the documented case numbers will have some sort of cap.

[StormfanaticInd]

Currently already sitting at 1339 deaths on worldometers

[StormfanaticInd]

Noticing yesterday's numbers were revised upward

[Hoosier]

40 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Your forgetting the "heat wave".

You talking about the warm weather earlier this month?  That is an interesting point and something that was brought up in this thread back then.  

This would be about the time when you would expect to see some stabilization or at least a slowdown in case growth... if that is playing a role.  The other Midwest states are not slowing down to the extent that Illinois has in the last few days though, and it's not like Illinois had a monopoly on the warm days.  So there may be multiple factors at work.   

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Going to take a magic act to avoid hitting 200k, imo.  Even if the stabilization places like IL is real, others will probably start picking up the slack so to speak.  I am keeping an eye on testing numbers though.  We still have not had 2 million tests in a day and have had very few days over 1.5.  As long as that is the case, then the documented case numbers will have some sort of cap.

The nationwide positive test rate is up to 10% but still rising. I tend to agree that it'll be hard to go over 200k until test numbers get up closer to 2 million.

I think it's too early to say whether the nationwide trajectory is slowing down. Illinois does look promising that they are hopefully leveling off though.

[dan11295]

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You talking about the warm weather earlier this month?  That is an interesting point and something that was brought up in this thread back then.  

This would be about the time when you would expect to see some stabilization or at least a slowdown in case growth... if that is playing a role.  The other Midwest states are not slowing down to the extent that Illinois has in the last few days though, and it's not like Illinois had a monopoly on the warm days.  So there may be multiple factors at work.   

May be a factor, of course some states are seeing increases without cold weather, see the 8,000 out of Florida. It may provide some short term mitigation by keeping people outside more. Also it was warm here in the northeast too, and everything is still rising here.

[RyanDe680]

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

Test came back negative for me, took 3 days to get results.

Do you need to go back for another?  

 

My wife had a potential exposure - test took 3.5 days to come back as well, somewhat ridiculous as I'm sure the labs are swamped. 

[etudiant]

Is there any value to the case numbers other than the obvious, to show that the virus is still here?

It does seem that public policy needs to focus on things such as hospitalizations, where there is a possibly reasonable response. I'm baffled as to what the logical response is to a rising infection case number. Shut down the various public venues, restaurants, airports, train stations? Is the remedy not worse than the disease in these cases?

[UMB WX]

2 hours ago, dan11295 said:

With the Governors handcuffed with regards to being able to due any mitigation they are really not in a good place.

over 250k passed on now. I mean to have created such creatures on this earth with no empathy, is mind boggling. wisc legislators, wisc tavern league and 45 can burn in hell.

[mattb65]

1 minute ago, etudiant said:

Is there any value to the case numbers other than the obvious, to show that the virus is still here?

It does seem that public policy needs to focus on things such as hospitalizations, where there is a possibly reasonable response. I'm baffled as to what the logical response is to a rising infection case number. Shut down the various public venues, restaurants, airports, train stations? Is the remedy not worse than the disease in these cases?

I would think it should be pretty obvious that case numbers are a leading indicator to hospitalizations and deaths.

My observation has been that policy changes have primarily been in response to hospitalization and healthcare worker capacity issues however the two are intricately linked.

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Is there any value to the case numbers other than the obvious, to show that the virus is still here?

It does seem that public policy needs to focus on things such as hospitalizations, where there is a possibly reasonable response. I'm baffled as to what the logical response is to a rising infection case number. Shut down the various public venues, restaurants, airports, train stations? Is the remedy not worse than the disease in these cases?

Here's the issue. As is evident, we are perfectly capable of restricting our social activities and movement around the planet, even if it is an inconvenience. Why is it so bad to shut down various public venues? What you may have forgotten is that all of this is a temporary solution until we have an effective vaccine, at which point covid will theoretically become just another disease that is largely avoidable. But until covid stops killing 1,500 people a day in the US alone, no, the remedy is not worse than the disease. 

[RyanDe680]

IL's positivity rate is going in the right direction, today only.  One day  doesn't make a trend so we'll see.  Again, I enjoy those who say that of course there are more cases because we are testing more... uh, okay so today the positivity rate is in the 8s vs. the 12s it was in for the past few days, but yet the number of tests is still around 100k per day.  Percentages are more meaningful than flat numbers.

[Hoosier]

I read the summaries or even occasionally watch the weekly covid briefings by the governor and health officials, and I gotta say the tone of today's briefing sounded like the ones back in spring.

The health commissioner used the words exponential growth.  There's a lot of concern about hospitals being able to handle the increasing numbers and increasing fatigue and illnesses among hospital workers.  Testing is also becoming an issue with supply and long wait times, and in some areas you can now only get tested if you have symptoms.  They also encouraged students returning home from college to stay home as much as possible and wear a mask inside, even at home.