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51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think we see a dramatic rise in cases for several months but deaths won't likely keep up with the trends of previous months due to better treatment. Vaccines likely start early next year. Going to be a rough couple months though.

Treatments have improved, and hospital stays have shortened as a result. The problem is balancing that against a bigger swell in cases and the flu season - though as someone mentioned earlier, the flu by itself might not be as big this year with people being more conscientious about handwashing, mask-wearing and social distancing.

It’s still a sustainability issue, and now rural areas with reduced access to proper medical equipment are getting slammed. 

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Significant rises in case numbers are now occurring in many states at once. we are down to 5-6 states not seeing either steady rise or sharp spike. Those states all are lower latitude/warmer areas, besides the OH Valley much of the plains saw a sharper increase this past week, same with the northeast. My state (Mass.) was up 50% this week, and we have high mask use compliance here. Really suggesting to me seasonality factors are taking over and causing Rt to rise compared to the summer.

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The Europe rise has been insane.  They had more of a break in summer than the US though.

It’s why I’m a fan of limited yet reasonable restrictions. People are more likely to have their guard up in public and forced to in those establishments/places. Forcing people to basically stay home and visit “essential businesses” only raises the chance for home gatherings and cookouts where it’s really going to spread

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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think we see a dramatic rise in cases for several months but deaths won't likely keep up with the trends of previous months due to better treatment. Vaccines likely start early next year. Going to be a rough couple months though.

Just curious, what is the better treatment being done now that wasn't being used in the first few months?

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3 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Just curious, what is the better treatment being done now that wasn't being used in the first few months?

Medical professionals were caught off guard and did not know what they were dealing with initially with covid. It took some time to come up with proper treatment plans. People were being put on ventilators almost right away at the start of this pandemic which led to the high mortality rate initially. That rate has since been declining. Now we have theuropetics that work quite well against it. Look at Trump for instance, 3 days and almost back to full health. Regeneron and Remdesevir are able to take a big hit in the symptoms of patients and hospital stays.

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Speaking of Regeneron, they are not enrolling very sick people

Regeneron to stop enrolling very sick COVID-19 patients in antibody trial

By Ankur Banerjee

(Reuters) - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said on Friday it would stop enrolling patients receiving advanced COVID-19 care in a trial testing its experimental antibody treatment in hospitalized patients, based on the recommendation of an independent safety board.

The recommendation was based on a potential safety signal and an unfavorable risk-benefit profile at this time, the company said. Rival Eli Lilly & Co stopped enrolling such patients based on a similar suggestion earlier this week.

"It appears a trend is emerging in the class, and it may be that neutralizing antibodies simply do not work and/or are not safe in this (hospitalized) population," JP Morgan analyst Cory Kasimov said in a note.

Both treatments belong to a class of drugs known as monoclonal antibodies. Regeneron's drug, which was administered to U.S. President Donald Trump before he was hospitalized, was credited by him for his recovery from COVID-19.

Regeneron continues to enroll other types of patients for trials and its enrollment in non-hospitalized patients as well as hospitalized patients requiring either no or a low level of oxygen has been backed by the independent data monitoring committee.

https://news.yahoo.com/regeneron-stop-enrolling-very-sick-151542504.html

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

7900 new cases in Illinois.

Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today.

As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak.

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CFR's are way down from the spring as we are catching more cases.  Same is true in Europe, countries like Italy are posting CFRs ~1%, compared to ~10% from the spring.  So calm down people, things are not quite as bad as they were in the spring -- yet.

It would also help if hospitals were allowed to administer HCQ+AZ+Zn and/or ivermectin+doxycycline therapies to improve patient throughput.  But I'm not holding my breath there.  In the meantime, just gotta keep taking Vitamin D and zinc.

divoc.thumb.png.cd63c474c4d9abea515c219c2733cdd3.png

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12 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today.

As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak.

As has been posted, places in Illinois are defying the orders anyway.  The defiance doesn't seem to be isolated either.

Illinois has a list of outbreaks that has been kept secret up until now.  They traced a lot of cases back to gatherings at people's houses and what not.  Not good when you consider what is coming up on the calendar.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-covid-19-outbreak-list-is-so-secret-even-local-officials-arent-told-of-cases/2361878/?amp

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Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today.
As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak.

As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening.

I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures.

It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt.

The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there
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1 hour ago, ikcarsky said:

CFR's are way down from the spring as we are catching more cases.  Same is true in Europe, countries like Italy are posting CFRs ~1%, compared to ~10% from the spring.  So calm down people, things are not quite as bad as they were in the spring -- yet.

It would also help if hospitals were allowed to administer HCQ+AZ+Zn and/or ivermectin+doxycycline therapies to improve patient throughput.  But I'm not holding my breath there.  In the meantime, just gotta keep taking Vitamin D and zinc.

divoc.thumb.png.cd63c474c4d9abea515c219c2733cdd3.png

Why would hospitals prescribe medications that have repeatedly failed to show any benefit in RCTs? Those medications were given liberally during the first surge in NYC and those patients did terrible.

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:


As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening.

I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures.

It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt.

The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there

Restaurants have been reopened forever, and bowling alleys reopened a month ago. 

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2 hours ago, nwohweather said:


As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening.

I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures.

It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt.

The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there

Seeing how much people piss & moan about not being able to go out to eat & to other places is hysterical at this point.

I guess I am a little biased being deployed and pinned with concrete walls for 7 months, but still.

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Not sure what we are going to do in this country if we are at/near the brink on a widespread level as we approach Thanksgiving.  

There were the initial stay at home orders back in spring.  There were also limits on group sizes, but the limits have been relaxed or even ended depending on where you are.  The reality is that it's a numbers game and while any particular individual gathering that is "small" is not likely be attended by somebody carrying the virus, it happens.  Considering there are a gazillion gatherings for Thanksgiving, it is a recipe for spread.  You can do it more safely outdoors of course but even that is not completely safe and it's not really an option in a large part of the country. 

And then we go through it all over again in December.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure what we are going to do in this country if we are at/near the brink on a widespread level as we approach Thanksgiving.  

There were the initial stay at home orders back in spring.  There were also limits on group sizes, but the limits have been relaxed or even ended depending on where you are.  The reality is that it's a numbers game and while any particular individual gathering that is "small" is not likely be attended by somebody carrying the virus, it happens.  Considering there are a gazillion gatherings for Thanksgiving, it is a recipe for spread.  You can do it more safely outdoors of course but even that is not completely safe and it's not really an option in a large part of the country. 

And then we go through it all over again in December.

America is definitely not giving up Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings unless things get very dire

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