RobertSul Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think we see a dramatic rise in cases for several months but deaths won't likely keep up with the trends of previous months due to better treatment. Vaccines likely start early next year. Going to be a rough couple months though. Treatments have improved, and hospital stays have shortened as a result. The problem is balancing that against a bigger swell in cases and the flu season - though as someone mentioned earlier, the flu by itself might not be as big this year with people being more conscientious about handwashing, mask-wearing and social distancing. It’s still a sustainability issue, and now rural areas with reduced access to proper medical equipment are getting slammed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Significant rises in case numbers are now occurring in many states at once. we are down to 5-6 states not seeing either steady rise or sharp spike. Those states all are lower latitude/warmer areas, besides the OH Valley much of the plains saw a sharper increase this past week, same with the northeast. My state (Mass.) was up 50% this week, and we have high mask use compliance here. Really suggesting to me seasonality factors are taking over and causing Rt to rise compared to the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: The Europe rise has been insane. They had more of a break in summer than the US though. It’s why I’m a fan of limited yet reasonable restrictions. People are more likely to have their guard up in public and forced to in those establishments/places. Forcing people to basically stay home and visit “essential businesses” only raises the chance for home gatherings and cookouts where it’s really going to spread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think we see a dramatic rise in cases for several months but deaths won't likely keep up with the trends of previous months due to better treatment. Vaccines likely start early next year. Going to be a rough couple months though. Just curious, what is the better treatment being done now that wasn't being used in the first few months? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, metallica470 said: Just curious, what is the better treatment being done now that wasn't being used in the first few months? Medical professionals were caught off guard and did not know what they were dealing with initially with covid. It took some time to come up with proper treatment plans. People were being put on ventilators almost right away at the start of this pandemic which led to the high mortality rate initially. That rate has since been declining. Now we have theuropetics that work quite well against it. Look at Trump for instance, 3 days and almost back to full health. Regeneron and Remdesevir are able to take a big hit in the symptoms of patients and hospital stays. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Speaking of Regeneron, they are not enrolling very sick people Regeneron to stop enrolling very sick COVID-19 patients in antibody trial By Ankur Banerjee (Reuters) - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said on Friday it would stop enrolling patients receiving advanced COVID-19 care in a trial testing its experimental antibody treatment in hospitalized patients, based on the recommendation of an independent safety board. The recommendation was based on a potential safety signal and an unfavorable risk-benefit profile at this time, the company said. Rival Eli Lilly & Co stopped enrolling such patients based on a similar suggestion earlier this week. "It appears a trend is emerging in the class, and it may be that neutralizing antibodies simply do not work and/or are not safe in this (hospitalized) population," JP Morgan analyst Cory Kasimov said in a note. Both treatments belong to a class of drugs known as monoclonal antibodies. Regeneron's drug, which was administered to U.S. President Donald Trump before he was hospitalized, was credited by him for his recovery from COVID-19. Regeneron continues to enroll other types of patients for trials and its enrollment in non-hospitalized patients as well as hospitalized patients requiring either no or a low level of oxygen has been backed by the independent data monitoring committee. https://news.yahoo.com/regeneron-stop-enrolling-very-sick-151542504.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 If hospitals are already filled, and the case numbers are still skyrocketing, this is going to get worse very quickly. You have to assume a growing number of hospitalizations with a growing number of cases, and the hospitals don't have room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Set a new daily case record in my county with 379. Continue to have similar case numbers to Indianapolis/Marion county despite having half the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 7900 new cases in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 The numbers are going up so fast the even Saturdays are breaking records. Thats really saying something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 7900 new cases in Illinois. Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today. As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 CFR's are way down from the spring as we are catching more cases. Same is true in Europe, countries like Italy are posting CFRs ~1%, compared to ~10% from the spring. So calm down people, things are not quite as bad as they were in the spring -- yet. It would also help if hospitals were allowed to administer HCQ+AZ+Zn and/or ivermectin+doxycycline therapies to improve patient throughput. But I'm not holding my breath there. In the meantime, just gotta keep taking Vitamin D and zinc. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today. As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak. As has been posted, places in Illinois are defying the orders anyway. The defiance doesn't seem to be isolated either. Illinois has a list of outbreaks that has been kept secret up until now. They traced a lot of cases back to gatherings at people's houses and what not. Not good when you consider what is coming up on the calendar. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-covid-19-outbreak-list-is-so-secret-even-local-officials-arent-told-of-cases/2361878/?amp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today. As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak.As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening. I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures. It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt. The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I half expect to come in here one day and see a post about gold falling out of the sky in the magical land of South Carolina. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, ikcarsky said: CFR's are way down from the spring as we are catching more cases. Same is true in Europe, countries like Italy are posting CFRs ~1%, compared to ~10% from the spring. So calm down people, things are not quite as bad as they were in the spring -- yet. It would also help if hospitals were allowed to administer HCQ+AZ+Zn and/or ivermectin+doxycycline therapies to improve patient throughput. But I'm not holding my breath there. In the meantime, just gotta keep taking Vitamin D and zinc. Why would hospitals prescribe medications that have repeatedly failed to show any benefit in RCTs? Those medications were given liberally during the first surge in NYC and those patients did terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I half expect to come in here one day and see a post about gold falling out of the sky in the magical land of South Carolina. I wouldn’t say magical. I just agree with the approach this region has over what the Midwest is doing. Hell I believe even golf courses were closed up there until mid Summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a second national lockdown for England to prevent a "medical and moral disaster" for the NHS. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54763956 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening. I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures. It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt. The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there Restaurants have been reopened forever, and bowling alleys reopened a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 ^only a partial shutdown in the UK though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I wouldn’t say magical. I just agree with the approach this region has over what the Midwest is doing. Hell I believe even golf courses were closed up there until mid Summer April is not mid-summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I'm starting to get worried about Italy. There death rate is climbing fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: As I said earlier that’s probably the worst idea. People have had it and are doing tons of private gatherings where the spread is happening. I’d rather have people at a Michigan-Michigan State football game with 20% capacity or a restaurant with limited capacity spaced out as you’re allowing people that recreation with safety measures. It’s why numbers with the exception of Florida are fairly low here in the South. The fatigue is not nearly what you have in the Rust Belt. The amount of family and friends I have trying to visit is wild right now. While cold weather plays a factor, they all talk about how they’re sick of not being able to go to games or how restricted things like bowling alleys and restaurants are up there Seeing how much people piss & moan about not being able to go out to eat & to other places is hysterical at this point. I guess I am a little biased being deployed and pinned with concrete walls for 7 months, but still. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, mattb65 said: Why would hospitals prescribe medications that have repeatedly failed to show any benefit in RCTs? Because they work. HCQ looks good when given early, see image. Ivermectin looks good even with late treatment. And your statement is false. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, ikcarsky said: Because they work. HCQ looks good when given early, see image. Ivermectin looks good even with late treatment. And your statement is false. Take it up with the FDA I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I half expect to come in here one day and see a post about gold falling out of the sky in the magical land of South Carolina. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Looking like 90k+ today. On a Saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Not sure what we are going to do in this country if we are at/near the brink on a widespread level as we approach Thanksgiving. There were the initial stay at home orders back in spring. There were also limits on group sizes, but the limits have been relaxed or even ended depending on where you are. The reality is that it's a numbers game and while any particular individual gathering that is "small" is not likely be attended by somebody carrying the virus, it happens. Considering there are a gazillion gatherings for Thanksgiving, it is a recipe for spread. You can do it more safely outdoors of course but even that is not completely safe and it's not really an option in a large part of the country. And then we go through it all over again in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure what we are going to do in this country if we are at/near the brink on a widespread level as we approach Thanksgiving. There were the initial stay at home orders back in spring. There were also limits on group sizes, but the limits have been relaxed or even ended depending on where you are. The reality is that it's a numbers game and while any particular individual gathering that is "small" is not likely be attended by somebody carrying the virus, it happens. Considering there are a gazillion gatherings for Thanksgiving, it is a recipe for spread. You can do it more safely outdoors of course but even that is not completely safe and it's not really an option in a large part of the country. And then we go through it all over again in December. America is definitely not giving up Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings unless things get very dire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Can't wait to skip 'em 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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