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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Staring down the barrel of 100k cases.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow, it will be by late next week.  

Last  four Fridays: 52k, 61k, 71k, 81k. Not quite a steep as slope as the summer spike. Big difference are we are already above the summer spike peak numbers now, it is much more spread out throughout the entire country, and we are heading toward winter which is more conductive to viral transmission due to more people gathering indoors, colder/drier air in general etc.

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IHME model updated.  Even with "universal" mask use (which is considered 95%), it has between 1000-1300 deaths per day from November through January.  And we are nowhere near 95% on a nationwide level.  

This is not to bash mask use whatsoever.  It just shows what we're up against.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Said it before and I know it is a bit macabre, but I think we need to spike this as much as possible prior to Thanksgiving.  Scare as many people as possible into not holding gatherings, especially larger ones.  

The large gatherings are already taking place. The polling place I went to at Town Hall had hundreds of people in line through small corridors all tightly packed together. Far more people are congregated together in voting right now then will be at thanksgiving. Everyone in line was talking about how many Covid violations are being made the entire 30 minute wait to vote.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The large gatherings are already taking place. The polling place I went to at Town Hall had hundreds of people in line through small corridors all tightly packed together. Far more people are congregated together in voting right now then will be at thanksgiving. Everyone in line was talking about how many Covid violations are being made the entire 30 minute wait to vote.

I've been wondering about the impact that voting could have on spreading the virus.  That is a bit of a tricky thing to figure out though.  I early voted and was in and out.  Everyone I saw was wearing a mask.

The holiday gatherings are sort of like being in a restaurant or bar in that you have to take your mask off at some point.  I question whether many people would wear a mask to their holiday gatherings to begin with.  

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've been wondering about the impact that voting could have on spreading the virus.  That is a bit of a tricky thing to figure out though.  I early voted and was in and out.  Everyone I saw was wearing a mask.

The holiday gatherings are sort of like being in a restaurant or bar in that you have to take your mask off at some point.  I question whether many people would wear a mask to their holiday gatherings to begin with.  

Everyone was wearing a mask in line but no one was 6 feet apart. This article explains how wearing a mask inside does limit spread, but it will still infect at least a few in an environment of long term close contact inside.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Everyone was wearing a mask in line but no one was 6 feet apart. This article explains how wearing a mask inside does limit spread, but it will still infect at least a few in an environment of long term close contact inside.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Nice link showing various scenarios.  Thanks.

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've been wondering about the impact that voting could have on spreading the virus.  That is a bit of a tricky thing to figure out though.  I early voted and was in and out.  Everyone I saw was wearing a mask.

The holiday gatherings are sort of like being in a restaurant or bar in that you have to take your mask off at some point.  I question whether many people would wear a mask to their holiday gatherings to begin with.  

At this point I am not sure the mitigation restrictions of banning indoor dining/bar service etc will reverse this trend. The behavior of the population I think has been pretty stable the last several months. A segment follows all the protocols, another follows protocols but cheats based on activities important to them. ie indoor dining, having private gatherings etc.  Finally another segment that thinks its nonsense and no worse than the flu. The seasonal component to the spread of covid is becoming the overriding factor. Lower humidities and colder air more readily transmit covid just as it does seasonally for most coronaviruses. Virus particles stay afloat longer in drier air and travel further in indoor environments. Holiday gatherings may give a booster charge to this thing but I think this winter will be ugly anyways and unless we go back to phase 3 shut downs, which I don't think will happen, its going to infect alot of people by next spring. Unfortunately a significant number of people have had it with the restrictions and there's enough misinformation or studies wrongly interpreted to justify in their minds not following all the restrictions. Also their is legitimate economic fallout in the  restaurant/ bar industry that has to be considered. Especially if there is no widespread bailout of those small businesses. Many businesses are defying those shutdown orders. Not sure there is an answer at this point.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

500k+

When you game it out, it seems like it will be hard to avoid hitting that number in 2021.

Obviously have some uncertainty on precisely how bad it will get this winter and if some places will have to go back into shutdowns to reduce the spread, but let's say the IHME projection of 400k by February is reasonably accurate.  We aren't even through winter at that point.  Vaccines should be out by then but still somewhat limited availability, less than perfect efficacy, and a healthy chunk of the public is skeptical and won't get one anyway.  Situation improves late spring/early summer and then the question is whether we can avoid a repeat of what happened in the South in summer.  Unfortunately I think a sort of best case scenario would be if we can delay hitting 500k until late next year, but it certainly could happen well before then. 

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