Coronavirus

[nwohweather]

Do you think that China is being honest with their numbers ?  Just speculation on my part... but the American population as a whole is very unhealthy, and considering chronic conditions play a significant role in deaths I'm guessing that's why the USA is at the top the list. 

I have zero faith in China’s numbers. They went months without restrictions in a heavily urbanized area.

[StormfanaticInd]

About to hit 80k again. Facepalm

[Hoosier]

We are actually running a little above the IHME projection... the model that has 2000 US deaths per day in late December.  It had ~800 deaths per day right now, and the daily average from the past 7 days is over 800.

[Hoosier]

Pritzker is banning indoor dining in Chicago and Mayor Lightfoot doesn't like it

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/rising-covid-19-rates-hospitalizations-in-chicago-hit-illinois-limit-as-most-regions-see-added-restrictions/amp/

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pritzker is banning indoor dining in Chicago and Mayor Lightfoot doesn't like it

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/rising-covid-19-rates-hospitalizations-in-chicago-hit-illinois-limit-as-most-regions-see-added-restrictions/amp/

We need a big stimulus package to get us through this winter. Why is this so hard for these idiots in Washington to understand?

[WaryWarren]

9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We need a big stimulus package to get us through this winter. Why is this so hard for these idiots in Washington to understand?

 

 

[nwohweather]

10 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We need a big stimulus package to get us through this winter. Why is this so hard for these idiots in Washington to understand?

I won't lie, I'm not sure how much more we can realistically afford. Tax revenues have absolutely plummeted due to this. I know this is going to come off as quite political but the coronavirus has crushed so much of what will likely be a liberal led DC for the next few years simply due to a lack of funding. 

This is what I face daily at work. We constantly worry about the next few years of our company as states will simply not have the money to do major infrastructure projects without significant tax hikes on both corporations and people. I see no way we can continue with stimulus packages and not cut spending drastically/increase taxes by 5% on anyone making under $150K & 8-10% on anyone making over that

[Inverted_Trough]

10 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We need a big stimulus package to get us through this winter. Why is this so hard for these idiots in Washington to understand?

Sadly, filling a vacant court seat was obviously more important to the Senate.  I think even the President wanted a big stimulus (for his re-election chances).

[Hoosier]

New high of over 3600 new cases in IN.  Per capita it's like having 7,000 cases in Illinois or almost 12,000 in Florida.

Also, ICU bed availability statewide has dropped into the 20s percent.  The total number of ICU beds is less than it was in the spring though, so they should be able to add more if necessary.   

[BuffaloWeather]

Treatment at the beginning of the pandemic was terrible, deaths are declining while cases increase. The virus is not nearly as deadly as once thought. Regeneron helps reduce viral load in patients. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-by-the-numbers-mortality-rates-in-u-s-decrease-despite-uptick-in-cases/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

The most recent data (from the week ending October 10) showed excess deaths only 0 and 2.9 percent higher than historic data.

A look at the data shows that excess deaths peaked the week ending April 11, with 35.6% to 40.6% more deaths than usual, then began a downward trajectory through June 20, when the incidence of COVID-19 rose in Sunbelt states after declining in the North and Northeast.

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Treatment at the beginning of the pandemic was terrible, deaths are declining while cases increase. The virus is not nearly as deadly as once thought. Regeneron helps reduce viral load in patients. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-by-the-numbers-mortality-rates-in-u-s-decrease-despite-uptick-in-cases/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

The most recent data (from the week ending October 10) showed excess deaths only 0 and 2.9 percent higher than historic data.

A look at the data shows that excess deaths peaked the week ending April 11, with 35.6% to 40.6% more deaths than usual, then began a downward trajectory through June 20, when the incidence of COVID-19 rose in Sunbelt states after declining in the North and Northeast.

While this is certainly true compared to March and April. From about mid-summer on the calculated CFR using a 3 week time lag between cases and deaths has been steady at 1.5-1.8%. Worth noting that right now we are about 3 weeks after cases really started to rise again.

[Inverted_Trough]

The denominator was much lower in March/April because we were only testing the sickest patients.  Lower denominator will always make the mortality rate appear higher.  I think treatments have improved but I think most of the decrease in mortality rate is due to us increasing the denominator with more testing.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Treatment at the beginning of the pandemic was terrible, deaths are declining while cases increase. The virus is not nearly as deadly as once thought. Regeneron helps reduce viral load in patients. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-by-the-numbers-mortality-rates-in-u-s-decrease-despite-uptick-in-cases/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

The most recent data (from the week ending October 10) showed excess deaths only 0 and 2.9 percent higher than historic data.

A look at the data shows that excess deaths peaked the week ending April 11, with 35.6% to 40.6% more deaths than usual, then began a downward trajectory through June 20, when the incidence of COVID-19 rose in Sunbelt states after declining in the North and Northeast.

From the article about Regeneron's treatment:

"Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said."

.........

When it is released, won't it have to be administered in a hospital setting?  I don't think you can pop a pill.

[OSUmetstud]

24 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

While this is certainly true compared to March and April. From about mid-summer on the calculated CFR using a 3 week time lag between cases and deaths has been steady at 1.5-1.8%. Worth noting that right now we are about 3 weeks after cases really started to rise again.

The October 10th excess death data is now 4.9 to 9 percent. You got to be careful about using the last few weeks as its quite incomplete. 

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From the article about Regeneron's treatment:

"Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said."

.........

When it is released, won't it have to be administered in a hospital setting?  I don't think you can pop a pill.

My friend in California works on covid floor stated that it is only being used in Beverly Hills west hollywood hospital, but if you're wealthy enough you can probably get your hands on it. Their hospital is too poor for it. But looks like its only available in a hospital setting at this moment. 

[mattb65]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My friend in California works on covid floor stated that it is only being used in Beverly Hills west hollywood hospital, but if you're wealthy enough you can probably get your hands on it. Their hospital is too poor for it. But looks like its only available in a hospital setting at this moment. 

Kinda in a pickle when the antibody treatments appear to show benefit in the prehospitalization setting. It's going to take some logistical creativity to pick which pre hospitalization patients will receive these sort of treatments.

These treatments will probably help eventually but definitely are not poised to put a dent in the morbidity and mortality of this fall/winter wave, unfortunately.

[OSUmetstud]

13 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Kinda in a pickle when the antibody treatments appear to show benefit in the prehospitalization setting. It's going to take some logistical creativity to pick which pre hospitalization patients will receive these sort of treatments.

These treatments will probably help eventually but definitely are not poised to put a dent in the morbidity and mortality of this fall/winter wave, unfortunately.

I'd have to imagine they'd identify the most at risk people and give this therapy to people in outpatient after they develop symptoms?

All the stuff with antivirals and antibodies therapy has been consistently "may work, if given early" but how do you accomplish that? 

[BuffaloWeather]

He said the main therapeutic they are using is Remdesevir. It lowers the number of days in the hospital by approximately 50%. 

[OSUmetstud]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

He said the main therapeutic they are using is Remdesevir. It lowers the number of days in the hospital by approximately 50%. 

Remdesivir at the moment only really has shown benefit for the hospital system in reducing length of stay. Theres no good data on reduced mortality for individual patients. Hopefully they can manage more early course studies.

The steroids and care has been the main reason for the decrease in mortality in the hospital. 

I dont think overall mortality has decreased by, let's say more than 40%? Since the beginning. 

In the second wave, the median age of hospitalization was younger which also helped to reduce mortality from the first wave. 

This wave already looked worse than the summer one...our baseline is higher than June and Rt (1.12) hasn't begun to go down yet even as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surge. 

[madwx]

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

This.  Always good to look for the light at the end of the tunnel.  Granted it's tough especially if you've lost your job or are struggling financially.

[StormfanaticInd]

Indiana and Illinois break records again. With Halloween this weekend has the potential to make things even worse 

[StormfanaticInd]

9 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

I agree 100 percent. Hard to do going into this winter admittedly for me. They appear to be getting closer to a vaccine so their is hope no doubt 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

My good friends best friend committed suicide 3 days ago. 3 kids and a wife, no warning signs. This pandemic is definitely affecting people. 

[StormfanaticInd]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My good friends best friend committed suicide 3 days ago. 3 kids and a wife, no warning signs. This pandemic is definitely affecting people. 

Sorry to hear that. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Interesting 

[Jonger]

On 10/28/2020 at 3:42 PM, A-L-E-K said:

classic jon

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1550451/

 

Just because something is worsening doesn't mean it's not still lower than most countries.

[StormfanaticInd]

We could hit 90k today

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We could hit 90k today

Maybe.  Should be in the mid to upper 80,000s at least as several states have yet to report and some states do multiple data dumps per day (i.e. California)

[osubrett2]

Record day in Ohio: 3,509. Prior high was last Saturday ~2,600.