Coronavirus

[A-L-E-K]

a real loss

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

What exactly are you quoting here?

Just kinda tired of the arguments about masks and herd immunity.

One of the anti-mask talking points is that 'well, Dr. Fauci said in March...'.  Let's say you were told not to expect much of a refund on your income taxes, but then it turns out that you are getting $5,000.  Will you accept it or turn it down because of what you were told earlier?

As far as herd immunity, it doesn't take an epidemiologist to understand how that is not really an option.  Some assumptions still need to be made about this particular virus due to its relatively short existence, but it seems plausible that immunity wears off after a period of months.  That would more or less be in line with other coronaviruses.  It does not appear to be like the chickenpox where if you get it once, you are just about guaranteed to not get it again (do have a risk of developing shingles later in life though).  In order to try to execute a herd immunity strategy for covid-19, you'd have to get a tremendous number of people sick within a relatively short period of time before the immunity starts to wear off.  Doing so would overwhelm hospitals, because non-trivial numbers of people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s need hospital care, even though they are very, very unlikely to die.  Also, the more people that have the virus, the more likely it will inevitably spread to older/more vulnerable people no matter how hard you try to protect them.  This has already been observed in the summer wave in the US, when the cases started out biased toward young people but then crept into the more vulnerable.  So unless we are ok with needing widespread field hospitals (never mind the extra staff that would be required for that) and a large amount of needless deaths, herd immunity is not a sound strategy. 

[Chicago Storm]

 
[mention=14]Hoosier[/mention] might be time to shut this down. This has turned into a meme war followed by sanctimonious replies from meteorologists. Time to end this thread.

na, this thread is fine.

just the rando ohio folk being of issue. probably because they already know their winter is doomed, per usual.


.

[CoachLB]

My question is. How can you be in the same household with someone that has covid and not get it. Not once but twice.

[dta1984]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

na, this thread is fine.

just the rando ohio folk being of issue. probably because they already know their winter is doomed, per usual.


.

Not sure where in ohio you're talking about, but we usually do pretty well thanks 

[dta1984]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just kinda tired of the arguments about masks and herd immunity.

One of the anti-mask talking points is that 'well, Dr. Fauci said in March...'.  Let's say you were told not to expect much of a refund on your income taxes, but then it turns out that you are getting $5,000.  Will you accept it or turn it down because of what you were told earlier?

As far as herd immunity, it doesn't take an epidemiologist to understand how that is not really an option.  Some assumptions still need to be made about this particular virus due to its relatively short existence, but it seems plausible that immunity wears off after a period of months.  That would more or less be in line with other coronaviruses.  It does not appear to be like the chickenpox where if you get it once, you are just about guaranteed to not get it again (do have a risk of developing shingles later in life though).  In order to try to execute a herd immunity strategy for covid-19, you'd have to get a tremendous number of people sick within a relatively short period of time before the immunity starts to wear off.  Doing so would overwhelm hospitals, because non-trivial numbers of people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s need hospital care, even though they are very, very unlikely to die.  Also, the more people that have the virus, the more likely it will inevitably spread to older/more vulnerable people no matter how hard you try to protect them.  This has already been observed in the summer wave in the US, when the cases started out biased toward young people but then crept into the more vulnerable.  So unless we are ok with needing widespread field hospitals (never mind the extra staff that would be required for that) and a large amount of needless deaths, herd immunity is not a sound strategy. 

That's fine, but what really seems to fall on deaf ears is when it's mentioned the reasons for the mask less crowd and covid fatigue.   It's like some just don't want to hear that or even acknowledge those things exist. It's a real problem, and it's an increasing problem. 

Herd immunity....was simply posting an article.  It's a topic that is routinely brought up and should be discussed. That's what an open and free society does.

There's too strong of a mindset in here that some are right and don't want to hear otherwise.  There is a very clear bias.  

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

It was well known understanding Coronavirus's through the years there is no herd immunity. This was known fact. Its like the common cold(rhinovirus, the cousin of Covid) with its rapid mutations compared to influenza. Your just being a thumb nosing babe. Elitism is action.

Meh. It seems that most scientists are operating under the premise that herd immunity is a real thing with this infection and with hopefully vaccine(s) coming reasonably soon. 

Seasonal coronavirus infection from the other cornaviruses isn't evidence that herd immunity is unattainable. Hardly anyone gets severe disease from them and they spread in the winter and then go away again. This virus has been very stable despite some typical mutations and could easily become endemic like the other coronaviruses where it produces mild or asymptomatic disease every winter. 

It would be really unusual if the virus kept producing severe disease in people as a whole in subsequent infections. 

  

[dta1984]

12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

It was well known understanding Coronavirus's through the years there is no herd immunity. This was known fact. Its like the common cold(rhinovirus, the cousin of Covid) with its rapid mutations compared to influenza. Your just being a thumb nosing babe. Elitism is action.

Wtf are you talking about, it's definitely a topic right now.  

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

418,000 Americans died in WW2 over the course of roughly 6 years of combat. 

Over 215,000 Americans have died so far in less than a year of Covid with studies on excess death indicating the deaths from the direct and indirect effects of the virus exceed this number.

 

Meme all you want. It's pretty heartless.

That meme is almost one of the worst out there. We're really going to compare traveling to Europe to fight Nazis that have conquered most of Europe and North Africa to being nervous of Covid? Being lock downed for most of us is challenging but lets not compare going to War to liberate Europe as the same thing as risking my health to go to a shitty mid level manager job in a random 3 story suburban office. 

[OSUmetstud]

This is a good thread on herd immunity. 

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is a good thread on herd immunity. 

Did you notice on that same guy's twitter page, there's a link to a study that throws cold water on various treatments, including Remdesivir?  That is disappointing. 

 

CONCLUSIONS These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.

[Hoosier]

10,000 new cases in Italy.  They were consistently under 2000 per day as recently as 3 weeks ago.

[WaryWarren]

Oh, ah, ah, ah, ah
Get up, come on get down with the sickness

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Michigan hit it's record high cases for the second day in a row

And of course now the governor can't do anything about it thanks to the state Supreme Court, and it'll be up to the state health department which most small towns will just ignore 

[StormfanaticInd]

We may make a run at 69k cases today on worldometers 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We may make a run at 69k cases today on worldometers 

I think the only thing that could prevent us from having 100k case days in the coming weeks is if testing capacity stays about the same.  Right now we are running around or sometimes a little over 1 million tests per day.

[Inverted_Trough]

Just imagine if we strived for herd immunity.  We'll be a country full of zombies in a few years.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111

[StormfanaticInd]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the only thing that could prevent us from having 100k case days in the coming weeks is if testing capacity stays about the same.  Right now we are running around or sometimes a little over 1 million tests per day.

Make that 70k! This getting crazy!!

[StormfanaticInd]

Smh

[Geoboy645]

I don't come in this thread very much, but holy crap Wisconsin is doing absolutely terrible. Our state positivity rate is 26.5%!!! right now. We have had over 3k new cases a day for the last week and I wouldn't be surprised if we break 4k or 5k new cases a day next week the way we are going. Some counties in this state have over a 50% positivity rate right now. Nowhere is safe either, as rural counties are getting as slammed as the urban counties are. Areas as rural as Mountain or Stratford are over 100 confirmed cases in their census tracts. Our deaths are starting to go up too. We just had 19 reported today and had over 30 at one point last week. And yet life is still totally normal here. Not a lot of masks or social distancing. Everytime our governor tries to do something, it gets shot down in court. Our Grade A legislature hasn't met in 140 (!) Days. Also we got a Trump rally in Rock County tomorrow, where 1 in every 138 people have COVID rn. That event is going to be the mother of all superspreaders. And we aren't even close to the peak of this yet. 

[dan11295]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Make that 70k! This getting crazy!!

Case numbers in the US always follow a weekly pattern, with Friday as highest and Sunday lowest. Still a big jump from last Friday

Couple of observations comparing the case, hospitalization and average deaths between last June- early July and now: First there are less reported hospitalizations relative to caseload, compared to the summer. Presumably do to testing more and catching more cases. But the 7-day average deaths are still above the average back in June (700 vs 550), despite  reported hospitalizations  being basically identical. Don't have a theory on why that is the case.

In Addition to Wisconsin mentioned above, North Dakota in particular is really doing bad. They get ignored due to small raw numbers, but per capita its terrible. >0.1% of their population was reported positive today alone!

[RyanDe680]

Feels like things are progressively getting worse and no actions taken.  I wish there was more demographic info as to where these increases are coming from. 

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Case numbers in the US always follow a weekly pattern, with Friday as highest and Sunday lowest. Still a big jump from last Friday

Couple of observations comparing the case, hospitalization and average deaths between last June- early July and now: First there are less reported hospitalizations relative to caseload, compared to the summer. Presumably do to testing more and catching more cases. But the 7-day average deaths are still above the average back in June (700 vs 550), despite  reported hospitalizations  being basically identical. Don't have a theory on why that is the case.

In Addition to Wisconsin mentioned above, North Dakota in particular is really doing bad. They get ignored due to small raw numbers, but per capita its terrible. >0.1% of their population was reported positive today alone!

I think I read that either North Dakota or South Dakota was down to 1 available ICU bed or something like that.

[Hoosier]

Difference between now and the summer is that it was basically 4 or 5 states really driving the big increase back then.  Now it's more states.

[madwx]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Difference between now and the summer is that it was basically 4 or 5 states really driving the big increase.  Now it's more states.

North Dakota only has 13 ICU beds available.  The city of Bismarck only has 1 left.  I'm guessing the closest city with ICU beds is hours away

[nwohweather]

Difference between now and the summer is that it was basically 4 or 5 states really driving the big increase back then.  Now it's more states.

Well yeah everyone is going to school. Combine that with college spread and overall fatigue, Covid is going to take off.

[luckyweather]

I think there’s a slice of people who take it seriously and are taking the key precautions to prevent spread, there’s a slice who are skeptical and begrudgingly take precautions when convenient or under social pressure but when nobody’s looking they do whatever, and then there’s a slice who either a) have somehow connected their rejection of the precautions / disbelief in the virus to their identity or B are just stubborn and it’s not an identity thing but a selfish small mindedness thing.

 

I think all of the groups I listed above except the “identity” folks will take things a lot more seriously when an NYC style tent hospital has to go up in their Southern/Western/Midwestern city. KC is sounding the alarms now, ICU beds are also filling up there. Wisco is quickly spiraling and today’s rally should help amplify things in the south central part of the state at least.

 

I think we are getting real close to the inevitable happening which I think will cause quite a few more people to change their mindset, maybe, optimistically, ahead of the potential Thanksgiving to New Years disaster that is looming.

 

Chris Christie and his change in rhetoric as a result of him getting it firsthand I think is a nice example of what I think will happen when Joe Public sees the tent hospital and refrigerated morgue trucks along hospital lane in KC, Bismarck, Madison, etc.

 

And if that doesn’t happen (the full ICUs), then those groups I listed are never going to take it seriously unless it hits them personally. But I think it’s happening. Now. Next 10 days. We will see.

 

[dta1984]

14 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

I think there’s a slice of people who take it seriously and are taking the key precautions to prevent spread, there’s a slice who are skeptical and begrudgingly take precautions when convenient or under social pressure but when nobody’s looking they do whatever, and then there’s a slice who either a) have somehow connected their rejection of the precautions / disbelief in the virus to their identity or B are just stubborn and it’s not an identity thing but a selfish small mindedness thing.

 

I think all of the groups I listed above except the “identity” folks will take things a lot more seriously when an NYC style tent hospital has to go up in their Southern/Western/Midwestern city. KC is sounding the alarms now, ICU beds are also filling up there. Wisco is quickly spiraling and today’s rally should help amplify things in the south central part of the state at least.

 

I think we are getting real close to the inevitable happening which I think will cause quite a few more people to change their mindset, maybe, optimistically, ahead of the potential Thanksgiving to New Years disaster that is looming.

 

Chris Christie and his change in rhetoric as a result of him getting it firsthand I think is a nice example of what I think will happen when Joe Public sees the tent hospital and refrigerated morgue trucks along hospital lane in KC, Bismarck, Madison, etc.

 

And if that doesn’t happen (the full ICUs), then those groups I listed are never going to take it seriously unless it hits them personally. But I think it’s happening. Now. Next 10 days. We will see.

 

If needed, hopefully they can figure out how to actually utilize the secondary hospitals after nyc

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/508303-new-york-city-spent-52-million-on-coronavirus-hospital-that-served-79

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, luckyweather said:

I think there’s a slice of people who take it seriously and are taking the key precautions to prevent spread, there’s a slice who are skeptical and begrudgingly take precautions when convenient or under social pressure but when nobody’s looking they do whatever, and then there’s a slice who either a) have somehow connected their rejection of the precautions / disbelief in the virus to their identity or B are just stubborn and it’s not an identity thing but a selfish small mindedness thing.

 

I think all of the groups I listed above except the “identity” folks will take things a lot more seriously when an NYC style tent hospital has to go up in their Southern/Western/Midwestern city. KC is sounding the alarms now, ICU beds are also filling up there. Wisco is quickly spiraling and today’s rally should help amplify things in the south central part of the state at least.

 

I think we are getting real close to the inevitable happening which I think will cause quite a few more people to change their mindset, maybe, optimistically, ahead of the potential Thanksgiving to New Years disaster that is looming.

 

Chris Christie and his change in rhetoric as a result of him getting it firsthand I think is a nice example of what I think will happen when Joe Public sees the tent hospital and refrigerated morgue trucks along hospital lane in KC, Bismarck, Madison, etc.

 

And if that doesn’t happen (the full ICUs), then those groups I listed are never going to take it seriously unless it hits them personally. But I think it’s happening. Now. Next 10 days. We will see.

 

I think you're onto something.  

In a weird way, if a really dire situation is inevitable, we should hope it gets really bad prior to Thanksgiving so that people modify their behavior before then.

[Hoosier]

Unsurprisingly, another record case day in IN.  Also starting to get some days of 30+ deaths, which was happening more often in spring.