Hoosier Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 From March through July... 1,336,561 people died in the US. The expected number (which is typically remarkably stable, outside of a freak occurrence like a pandemic of course) is 1,111,031, which is 225,000 more than expected. Not all of the excess is directly because of the virus, but many are. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3948 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The whole mask argument just won't quit. Anti-maskers keep flaunting "studies" that show that masks don't work, while ignoring the fact that the medical profession has worn them for many years due to their effectiveness. I feel like the problem is that the public thinks they are safe if they have their mask on when around people who aren't wearing them and therefore do not worry about social distancing. That, combined will improper mask usage, leads to virus spread. I see dozens of people every day wearing a mask and not having their nose covered. Why even bother wearing one if you're going to do that? I'm positive that some of these same people are the ones who claim that they contacted COVID even though they wear a mask. This right here is the big key. If masks didn't work they wouldn't be standard in the medical profession. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 The fact that someone unironically posted the federalist in here just proves that some will never understand the issues 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: From March through July... 1,336,561 people died in the US. The expected number (which is typically remarkably stable, outside of a freak occurrence like a pandemic of course) is 1,111,031, which is 225,000 more than expected. Not all of the excess is directly because of the virus, but many are. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3948 Those statistics are telling. The case keeps being made that the many of the deaths are occurring to those with preexisting conditions/immuno-compromised individuals, and those with histories of substances abuse. The jury is still out on an increase in suicides. I propose that almost all of the increase in the number of deaths over average from March through July were caused by COVID, even if indirectly. Statistically, they wouldn't have died when they did if it weren't for the virus. Just because they didn't directly die of the virus, they are still a victim of it. I've lost patience with those who continue to poo-poo the idea that if they didn't die from it directly that they don't count. Everybody counts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 hours ago, dta1984 said: Ya I've wondered the same, but seems most want to discount that to a conspiracy theory.. There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year. Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected. So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme. I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme. They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all. Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world. Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too? https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists. Because they are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Nickysixes said: This info suggests the mask mandates are here to prolong the silly "Covid" crisis... https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/12/cdc-study-finds-overwhelming-majority-of-people-getting-coronavirus-wore-masks/ The point of masking is to protect others, not yourself. That point has been stressed over and over. Up to 40% of spread is from asymptomatic carriers who don't realize they are carrying it, hence why masks have been promoted as public health policy. It doesn't offer that much protection to the wearer -- especially if everyone surrounding you is not wearing a mask. If you can find me some documented examples of super spreader events where everyone was wearing a mask throughout the event, that would be more noteworthy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory This is happening all over the country though. Lots of states have travel restrictions from other states. For most of the summer, Florida was requiring all travelers arriving from NY to quarantine for two weeks. Even though NY had much, much fewer Covid cases than Florida did over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said: There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year. Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected. So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme. I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme. They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all. Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world. Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too? https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists. Because they are. Ironically, the first person (of several) that I am friends with to contract Covid, and in fact died from it, was a mortician. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The Johnson & Johnson vaccine trial and the Eli Lilly antibody trial are both paused due to unexplained illness in participants. Hopefully just a minor blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said: There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year. Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected. So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme. I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme. They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all. Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world. Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too? https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists. Because they are. Obviously not every single one lol. Are some getting miss-marked for financial gain...sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, dta1984 said: Obviously not every single one lol. Are some getting miss-marked for financial gain...sure. Yes, I'm sure that it happens. Health insurance fraud is a big problem in general -- especially Medicare fraud. That was the case before Covid too. My issue is that some people hear about a few cases where this might have occurred, so then they extrapolate this to all cases, and then try to convince everyone that the disease isn't real or it's a hoax. If anything, you could infer from the excess death statistics that we are undercounting a bit. Some countries appear to be undercounting by a lot (e.g. Peru, Mexico, Ecuador) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 7/13/2020 at 3:20 PM, Angrysummons said: I don't think a vaccine will matter as the rate of infection is likely to peter out by December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf actual study from cdc in reference to the article posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 CDC did a commercial lab survey over all 50 states. The results from mid August show an estimated just under 20 million infections. The reported cases at the time was about 5.5 million. Confirmed/probable deaths at that time were about 175000. So the number of exposed Americans now is probably around 9 or perhaps 10%. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The earlier quoted 10 missed infections for every 1 found was true back in April in the hard hit areas especially, but since then the number of missed infections is more like 2-5 for every one found. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory Well said sir! It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor. Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Well said sir! It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor. Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office. Just to be clear, you have a problem with people who can work remotely working remotely? Why? Mind you attempting to hire someone isn't something I would deem as a remote work activity, if your job does that it is a mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, Stebo said: Just to be clear, you have a problem with people who can work remotely working remotely? Why? Mind you attempting to hire someone isn't something I would deem as a remote work activity, if your job does that it is a mistake. We were able to hire and train a forecasters remotely over the past several weeks. Definitely a bit different but its gone pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Well said sir! It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor. Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office. We’ve done all interviews on skype and it’s been fine. Certainly better than face to face with masks on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: We’ve done all interviews on skype and it’s been fine. Certainly better than face to face with masks on. Chicago Booth economists found that roughly 34% of U.S. jobs can be performed at home. That means 66% of people have to go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We were able to hire and train a forecasted remotely over the past several weeks. Definitely a bit different but its gone pretty well. Yeah that would be interesting for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: fwiw, I thought there would be a higher surge in the summer, but I forgot it was the summer. If 200-250 thousand people a week had officially gotten it, the temporary immunity would have been enough for awhile by December. New York's problem is the massive 19 million NYC corridor. Its a disease center. They move all over the state, up and down from NYC to Albany to Buffalo. That said, its moved to Phase 3 of restrictions. Cases are rising. As expected. Going to phase 4 would trigger more cases and hospitalizations. Older people are hard to mask and socially distance. My view is if they wan to take the chance, let them. Has been that way since April. But they will die, in large large numbers. People between the age of 60-90 are very weak against this cold. They clog up hospitals. Do you mean per day? Because we were getting 200,000 to about 400,000 confirmed cases per week in the summer. Widespread herd immunity seems like it would be really hard to pull off with covid-19, especially with it becoming more clear that reinfections can happen some months after getting it. It would sort of be like a hamster running on the wheel. You'd have to get so many people sick so fast (before the immunity starts to wear off), which the hospitals wouldn't be able to handle. Trying to keep it contained to younger people isn't a bad idea on paper, but it inevitably ends up spreading to older/more vulnerable as time goes by. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Indiana's health commissioner, who has been a fixture at the news briefings, has tested positive. She is asymptomatic as of now but her daughter and infant grandson have symptoms. https://www.wishtv.com/news/indiana-news/indiana-health-commissioner-contracts-coronavirus-mask-mandate-extended-to-nov-14/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 ALEK - why is anyone getting this laugh worthy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Didn't Spanish flu have a fatality rate of 2.5% or something like that? Covid-19 is probably more like 0.5% when you try to account for the large amount of undocumented cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Indeed. The official global death toll is currently around 1.1 million. There has probably been significant undercounting, with some countries severely undercounting. Even if the current toll is 2 million or 3 million, that is a long way from Spanish flu levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: Your survival rate is incorrect. Its about the same as the Spanish flu, which effected the opposite end of the spectrum. For the most part, half of the US is wide open. There are no economic restrictions. The next 25% have modest restrictions(Ohio is one of those). The final 25% have harder restrictions. Nobody is locked down anymore. Economic problems were there before COVID. The debt bubble in CRE/Corporate debt imploded and was headed that way by the end of 2020. Covid just sped it up. No economic impacts? Have you looked at the GDP? https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Medicine was pretty crappy during the Spanish flu days. You can’t compare IFRs. The IFR of Covid would be > 2.5% had it occurred in 1918 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 We’ve done all interviews on skype and it’s been fine. Certainly better than face to face with masks on.We’re having problems with training and onboarding due to this pandemic. We’ve got a few people in positions hired similar to mine that are basically doing intern-type work because we cannot relocate them or train them properly at this time. I swear when all this dies down the amount of business travel I’ll have to do will be enormous. [mention]Stebo [/mention] I think it’s okay to work from home, it’s not okay to make it illegal for a supply chain analyst or accountant to go into work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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