Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

There is a collection of states in the West and the Plains that is on the rise.  It's not every state in that area of the country though, which could be because if your state has already been hit very hard, you probably have more restrictions in place with more of the population taking it seriously.  

I remember reading that exposure to smoke from the wildfires could make a person more susceptible to the virus.  I assume that meant a higher likelihood of having a more serious case and not a higher likelihood of contracting the virus itself, but I'm not sure.  Those states have had a higher frequency of smoke making it to ground level.  Another possibility could be the reopening of K-12 and colleges.  It is easier to pick out the spikes in smaller population states since the numbers are not high in an absolute sense.  A state that goes from 100 cases one day to 200 cases another day is more noticeable than a state that goes from 1200 to 1300.

[Hoosier]

This is an informative read.  Some good and bad news on reinfections and vaccines with covid.  The takeaway is that we are probably going to be battling this virus for a long time even after the vaccines come out.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

[Hoosier]

Pretty big number out of IL today, though it can partially be attributed to testing numbers creeping up.  Will have to keep an eye on hospitalizations... there was a pretty big jump in those yesterday but need to see upcoming days to ascertain any trend.

[Hoosier]

So obviously there has been a lot of attention on older people and those with comorbidities being at greater risk of serious illness, but what about an individual's risk profile changing throughout the year?  I haven't heard much about that.

In particular, for people living in northern climates, is your risk of a more significant case elevated in the colder months when you are more likely to have lower vitamin D levels?  After all, D is one thing that is thought to play a key role in immune health.

[madwx]

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So obviously there has been a lot of attention on older people and those with comorbidities being at greater risk of serious illness, but what about an individual's risk profile changing throughout the year?  I haven't heard much about that.

In particular, for people living in northern climates, is your risk of a more significant case elevated in the colder months when you are more likely to have lower vitamin D levels?  After all, D is one thing that is thought to play a key role in immune health.

Living in the upper midwest, especially if I had darker skin I would be taking daily vitamin D supplements.  I'm as pale as a ghost but I'm still taking daily vitamin D.

[CoachLB]

[madwx]

36 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

classic misinterpretation of the percentage or as some people like to say today, fake news.   The actual data is in a ratio but this mainstream media org just slapped a percent at the end instead of moving the decimal two places to the right like you should when converting from a ratio to a percent.  so it's really .003% for 0-19, 0.02% from 20-49, 0.5% for 50-69 and 5.4% for 70+.  

[RobertSul]

3 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Considering out of the 7 million confirmed infections there’ve been 200,000 deaths, which leads to an infection fatality percentage of 2.8%, I don’t think those numbers you posted are related to COVID. 

[madwx]

6 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Considering out of the 7 million confirmed infections there’ve been 200,000 deaths, which leads to an infection fatality ratio of 2.8%, I don’t think those numbers you posted are related to COVID. 

see my post above with the actual CDC data.  Fox News was using bad math

[RobertSul]

Just now, madwx said:

see my post above with the actual CDC data.  Fox News was using bad math

That makes more sense. In other words, 100 times deadlier than what was posted. 

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, CoachLB said:

Pretty embarrassing post here. For both you and the fox news network. Yikes.

[Malacka11]

I used to watch this tv show called Monsters Inside Me, which was all about people having horrible diseases/parasites. Gruesome, I know. The messed up episodes had fatality rates of maybe 10%. The fact that Covid is even approaching that, even just for a certain age group is terrifying. 

[CoachLB]

2 hours ago, madwx said:

classic misinterpretation of the percentage or as some people like to say today, fake news.   The actual data is in a ratio but this mainstream media org just slapped a percent at the end instead of moving the decimal two places to the right like you should when converting from a ratio to a percent.  so it's really .003% for 0-19, 0.02% from 20-49, 0.5% for 50-69 and 5.4% for 70+.  

Okay 

[madwx]

1 hour ago, CoachLB said:

Okay 

Lol still not understanding the difference between percent and ratio.  I just used that same chart to prove what was wrong with the numbers. Look on the left side.   Infection fatality ratio.  

[Hoosier]

This shouldn't be that difficult.  Typing 1 divided by 10 into a calculator results in 0.1

We all know that 1 out of 10 is 10 percent.  To convert 0.1 to 10 percent, you move the decimal point 2 places to the right. 

[Hoosier]

This is fascinating.  Sometimes it almost seems like it has a mind of its own

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

[RyanDe680]

40,000 + cases during a weekend is significant , considering reporting is low.  

[Stebo]

22 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Okay 

Cool lets do number of infected now. No one wants to get this and you are talking deaths, how many had to be hospitalized or how many have had some permanent damage? It is really really simple just to look at deaths and say no big deal, which 200k deaths is a big deal btw, than it is  to look at number of cases and number of hospitalizations which are much much higher. Judging by your sourcing though above, I can guess that you think this is a nothing virus, no big deal.

[nwohweather]

On 9/26/2020 at 11:04 AM, CoachLB said:

It's time to shut this down folks

[madwx]

7 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's time to shut this down folks

 shut down the bad math and lack of fact checking that pervades our media.  I agree

[Maestrobjwa]

22 hours ago, Stebo said:

Cool lets do number of infected now. No one wants to get this and you are talking deaths, how many had to be hospitalized or how many have had some permanent damage? It is really really simple just to look at deaths and say no big deal, which 200k deaths is a big deal btw, than it is  to look at number of cases and number of hospitalizations which are much much higher. Judging by your sourcing though above, I can guess that you think this is a nothing virus, no big deal.

Ya know...I sometimes wonder if folks today would be using that same logic back in 1918...I could see it now: "Oh, the fatality rate is ONLY 3%! 97% of people are fine!" (I know the percentages aren't the same, but you get my drift, lol)

[Snowstorms]

700 new cases today in Ontario setting a new single-day high record. 60% of them were in Toronto. After spending most of the summer with <100 cases per day, we've been rising exponentially since late August. 

Ironically, the province reopened Casino's today. Casinos in Ontario are run by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation which is a crown corporation owned by the Government. Schools have also resumed, and we've had dozens of cases linked to various schools. I feel as though a second lockdown is coming and could be far worse than anything we experienced back in Spring.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

700 new cases today in Ontario setting a new single-day high record. 60% of them were in Toronto. After spending most of the summer with <100 cases per day, we've been rising exponentially since late August. 

Ironically, the province reopened Casino's today. Casinos in Ontario are run by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation which is a crown corporation owned by the Government. Schools have also resumed, and we've had dozens of cases linked to various schools. I feel as though a second lockdown is coming and could be far worse than anything we experienced back in Spring.

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

[madwx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

lockdowns aren't really practical at this point in terms of limiting spread.  Really two things can help things from getting out of hand, rapid testing like the kind that was approved by the WHO today and no large indoor events.  

[weatherbo]

Owner of the bakery in Negaunee that I have worked at off and on for 6 years is currently hospitalized with covid.  I haven't seen her since February but I know she is a strong woman, only in her mid-50's and doesn't smoke or drink.  She has controlled diabetes but is otherwise healthy. Sucks because the business had been so careful with masks and carryout/outside seating only since opening back up in June but was hoping to add a few tables inside since it's getting cold.  She will mostly likely be fine I hope but I feel terrible.  It's a very small business and it's been one obstacle after another since March.  After 24 years in business, 2019 was her best year too.  The bakery is closed until Oct 12th. 

[Stebo]

27 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Owner of the bakery in Negaunee that I have worked at off and on for 6 years is currently hospitalized with covid.  I haven't seen her since February but I know she is a strong woman, only in her mid-50's and doesn't smoke or drink.  She has controlled diabetes but is otherwise healthy. Sucks because the business had been so careful with masks and carryout/outside seating only since opening back up in June but was hoping to add a few tables inside since it's getting cold.  She will mostly likely be fine I hope but I feel terrible.  It's a very small business and it's been one obstacle after another since March.  After 24 years in business, 2019 was her best year too.  The bakery is closed until Oct 12th. 

So sorry to hear that, hopefully she pulls through. I was quite surprised how busy the UP was overall when I was up there. Great news for up there.

[Cary67]

On 9/26/2020 at 2:03 PM, madwx said:

Lol still not understanding the difference between percent and ratio.  I just used that same chart to prove what was wrong with the numbers. Look on the left side.   Infection fatality ratio.  

Most of the info I've looked at placed the infection mortality rate at around .40-.65% averaged across the entire age spectrum. Those aged 0-20 much lower at .003% up to 1-3% for those over 70. This is not even counting the numbers of individuals who recover but may have lingering issues or just plain go through one of the most difficult illnesses of their lives.  This pandemic has exposed our country's lagging education in the sciences and the damage misinformation can cause on social media. The same attacks can be seen with climate change. While most will come down with milder cases its interesting to see the lack of patience our community has in following simple mask mandates to help lower community spread. I was just up in rural Wisconsin just north of Portage and many people at bars and restaurants were not adhering to any of the guidelines. I think Wisconsin's positivity rate hit 27% on Saturday. I want the economy and businesses to stay open as much as possible with reasonable safety precautions in place.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Really worried this virus could explode in the coming weeks. Add to that flu season and its not looking good. Wonder how they will be able to tell the difference 

[KokomoWX]

Last week I took the CDC stats and made a chart.  I skipped over underlying conditions since I was lazy.  

[on_wx]

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

Montreal and Quebec City are on a form of lockdown for the next 28 days. I don't think a lot of us are expecting another lockdown for various economic reasons, but its surprising to see parts of Quebec are going ahead with it.