OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769034 This study, the SK study, and the GA summer camp outbreak aren't particularly favorable for the hope that kids don't transmit well. I think you have to assume that kids transmit just as well as adults as the default when planning for reopening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: No one mentioning NYC deciding it's safe to reopen schools and students to return this fall? I mean, if NY can do it safely, most us po-dunk places should be able to. I am very skeptical they can pull it off, but they are one of the few places that are still trending in the right direction. They have to have a hair trigger though if the numbers go up considering how many people live in and around NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am very skeptical they can pull it off, but they are one of the few places that are still trending in the right direction. They have to have a hair trigger though if the numbers go up considering how many people live in and around NYC. Really comes down to how much virus they are willing to tolerate. The infection rate there is low enough right now that it wouldn't surprise me if it takes a while to reseed enough for a big increase, but the counter to that the numbers can take off quickly in such a big city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Really comes down to how much virus they are willing to tolerate. The infection rate there is low enough right now that it wouldn't surprise me if it takes a while to reseed enough for a big increase, but the counter to that the numbers can take off quickly in such a big city. Considering how many people have died in that state alone, and knowing it is the most populated area in the entire country, they are assuredly going to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 https://www.mediaite.com/news/cdc-data-shows-207000-excess-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-far-eclipsing-160000-confirmed-death-count/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 30 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: https://www.mediaite.com/news/cdc-data-shows-207000-excess-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-far-eclipsing-160000-confirmed-death-count/ One clear way to give even more credence to this story is post a graph showing all deaths from 1900 through current. It clearly shows the spikes attributed to these pandemics such as the 1917 period and others. I have seen some of these around and they are most telling. I suspect the huge jump in deaths this year would capture these additional unreported deaths that clearly would have to be attributed to the current virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 15 hours ago, Stebo said: I am very skeptical they can pull it off, but they are one of the few places that are still trending in the right direction. They have to have a hair trigger though if the numbers go up considering how many people live in and around NYC. Ontario is going ahead with full in class for grades 1-8 and high school is 50% of the week in class. We have a population of 14.5M and have now had 6 consecutive days below 100 new cases in the entire province. The entire province has seemed to accept the masks and I just came out of the beer store and people had no problem with waiting 10 minutes outside because it was 2 people in the store at a time. I think it all came down to leadership to set the example and our conservative premier (governor equivalent) stressed since early march the severity of this and only had a few hiccups along the way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 17 hours ago, Hoosier said: After getting ravaged in the winter/spring, NY did a good job in beating it down. They have been running like 1% positivity rate there for quite a long time I think. It is the right decision to open the schools there, but obviously have to keep an eye on the data. Given what they went through, I would think they will have a hair trigger there if it trends too far in the wrong direction. What exactly did Sweden do to mirror the situation in NY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Jonger said: What exactly did Sweden do to mirror the situation in NY? I think both places got the nursing home outbreaks under control. In general I know Sweden has had a more voluntary approach in dealing with the virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: I think both places got the nursing home outbreaks under control. In general I know Sweden has had a more voluntary approach in dealing with the virus. Maybe, maybe not... I can't help but believe that we're seeing the natural cycle of a respiratory virus. The vulnerable are taken out first and that's what led to the above chart in each location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Jonger said: Maybe, maybe not... I can't help but believe that we're seeing the natural cycle of a respiratory virus. The vulnerable are taken out first and that's what led to the above chart in each location. This is a pretty long read but I think it provides a more nuanced explanation for how the epidemic evolves in a newly hard hit area as shown in NY initially and more recently in Florida, Arizona, etc. In particular the discussion around "herd immunity threshold" which is another way of saying what is the natural amount of infection before the epidemic starts burning itself out. This is a variable number and is entirely dependent on what mitigation measures are in place to reduce R(t). In other words if we go back to no restrictions then the R(t) increases and the epidemic takes off again after getting contained. https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/ From the article: "Looking at the data, we see that transmissions in many severely-impacted states began to slow down in July, despite no clear policy interventions. This is especially notable in states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas. While we believe that changes in human behavior and changes in policy (such as mask mandates and closing of bars/nightclubs) certainly contributed to the decrease in transmission, it seems unlikely that these were the primary drivers behind the decrease. We believe that many regions obtained a certain degree of temporary herd immunity after reaching 10-35% prevalence under the current conditions. We call this 10-35% threshold the effective herd immunity threshold, eHIT." "One thing to note is that original definition of the herd immunity threshold is derived from the basic reproduction number, R0, and assumes no intervention and no social distancing. Hence, by definition, the HIT of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains unchanged over time, between 50-80%. But the effective herd immunity threshold (eHIT) in the context of COVID-19 is changing over time because the effective reproduction number, Rt, decreases as a result of society adjusting to the virus. That’s why we are seeing infections and cases plateau and decline after prevalence reaches 10-35% as people gain temporary immunity. A removal of current restrictions and interventions, as well as a loss of immunity over time, may cause this threshold to return to its original levels of 50-80%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Sweden does nothing and their situation resolves itself on its own, but ours won't eh? I'm skeptical. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 38 minutes ago, Jonger said: Sweden does nothing and their situation resolves itself on its own, but ours won't eh? I'm skeptical. Dittos. The increased positives via increased testing is a no-brainer. IF death rates start spiking around here I'll be more concerned but that number (which never seems the first focus of our main media outlets) continues flat-lining. All the hoopla over that MSU campus bar that opened and was flooded with student-aged patrons that couldn't wait to get back to their drinking hangout resulted in 100+ positives. But the last article I saw nobody was ill, let alone hospitalized. And they tested all known contacts even outside the establishment per the news article. I say Mask Up Open Up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 41 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Dittos. The increased positives via increased testing is a no-brainer. IF death rates start spiking around here I'll be more concerned but that number (which never seems the first focus of our main media outlets) continues flat-lining. All the hoopla over that MSU campus bar that opened and was flooded with student-aged patrons that couldn't wait to get back to their drinking hangout resulted in 100+ positives. But the last article I saw nobody was ill, let alone hospitalized. And they tested all known contacts even outside the establishment per the news article. I say Mask Up Open Up! What is still closed in Michigan? Here's where we are in IN. Click the image if the print is blurry. We have been in what's called stage 4.5 for a while and my guess is it will probably be extended past August 27. Basically everything is open (or at least allowed to be open) with certain things at 50 or 75 percent limits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Sweden is widely seen in non brain work circles as a massive failure with significant excess death. But whatever, we've been in bizzaro world for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Sweden is widely seen in non brain work circles as a massive failure with significant excess death. But whatever, we've been in bizzaro world for years. They apparently didn't admit many of the 70-80+ year old patients into ICU care...just gave them pain meds and let them die. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-taking-a-high-toll-on-swedens-elderly-families-blame-the-government-11592479430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 56 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What is still closed in Michigan? Here's where we are in IN. Click the image if the print is blurry. We have been in what's called stage 4.5 for a while and my guess is it will probably be extended past August 27. Basically everything is open (or at least allowed to be open) with certain things at 50 or 75 percent limits. On the MI closed list iiuc, would be bars that mainly serve just alcohol w/o a true kitchen. Cinemas and gyms. Large auditorium events. Schools. And businesses that have taken a financial torpedo to the bow and won't be seen floating again when this is over. That's all I've got. Some other Michigander here feel free to clarify.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Sweden does nothing and their situation resolves itself on its own, but ours won't eh? I'm skeptical. Their population density is about 25% of ours and they don't have a city even close to the density of all the major cities here. Not to mention their medical system and insurance is much better than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: They apparently didn't admit many of the 70-80+ year old patients into ICU care...just gave them pain meds and let them die. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-taking-a-high-toll-on-swedens-elderly-families-blame-the-government-11592479430 Yeah just what some in this country want, the old to die and go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: On the MI closed list iiuc, would be bars that mainly serve just alcohol w/o a true kitchen. Cinemas and gyms. Large auditorium events. Schools. And businesses that have taken a financial torpedo to the bow and won't be seen floating again when this is over. That's all I've got. Some other Michigander here feel free to clarify.. Yeah all places that are known high spreaders... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Anyone able to look up firm 2020 total death numbers (all causes) for the US? I'm not super-search savvy but my attempts via Google and Bing have ended in frustration. Tons of hits about C-19 this and C-19 that but still can't pin down a chart/graph/list of the total count (to date). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Anyone able to look up firm 2020 total death numbers (all causes) for the US? I'm not super-search savvy but my attempts via Google and Bing have ended in frustration. Tons of hits about C-19 this and C-19 that but still can't pin down a chart/graph/list of the total count (to date). 200700 excess deaths per NYT/CDC through July 25th https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: On the MI closed list iiuc, would be bars that mainly serve just alcohol w/o a true kitchen. Cinemas and gyms. Large auditorium events. Schools. And businesses that have taken a financial torpedo to the bow and won't be seen floating again when this is over. That's all I've got. Some other Michigander here feel free to clarify.. Ok. I don't know what the hospital situation is like in Michigan, but if the numbers are good then maybe one could argue for limited opening of some of those places. Hopefully some good can come from all of this and people use it as an opportunity to try to get their health in check as much as possible. I supppement with vit D (especially in fall/winter when you can't really get adequate sun exposure), magnesium, and zinc for general health and to maintain healthy T levels. Been doing that long before covid came along but if it would help against that in some direct or indirect way, great. We have a ton of obese/morbidly obese people walking around in this country, which obviously doesn't help if you contract this virus. I check off a couple of the risk factor boxes myself... and they are not necessarily readily apparent when you look at me. I have been operating under the assumption that whatever I had in March was not this virus and am continuing to avoid higher risk situations to the best of my ability. Still have not physically been inside of a restaurant since February. I agree with the thinking that a majority of us will catch it (with many not realizing they had it) but my philosophy has been to try to delay it as much as possible. You never know if catching it down the road could alter the course of your illness (particularly for someone with one of the more severe cases if better treatment comes out) or possibly even save your life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 17 hours ago, Stebo said: Their population density is about 25% of ours and they don't have a city even close to the density of all the major cities here. Not to mention their medical system and insurance is much better than here. Nice illustration of why comparing our situation to that of New Zealand and successful European countries like some are doing is ill-advised as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 On 8/9/2020 at 5:17 PM, A-L-E-K said: Sweden is widely seen in non brain work circles as a massive failure with significant excess death. But whatever, we've been in bizzaro world for years. Right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 On 8/9/2020 at 6:13 PM, RogueWaves said: On the MI closed list iiuc, would be bars that mainly serve just alcohol w/o a true kitchen. Cinemas and gyms. Large auditorium events. Schools. And businesses that have taken a financial torpedo to the bow and won't be seen floating again when this is over. That's all I've got. Some other Michigander here feel free to clarify.. The juice was never worth the squeeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Another day, another 50 something thousand cases another 1400 deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Not much attention is paid to long-term morbidities that will spring from the virus (and in some cases, already are) that could run into the millions or tens of millions. Only focusing on the death count is a myopic view of the situation, imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Not much attention is paid to long-term morbidities that will spring from the virus (and in some cases, already are) that could run into the millions or tens of millions. Only focusing on the death count is a myopic view of the situation, imo. Agreed, long term ailments should be another major point in dealing with this virus, it seems to be a wide range of issues. These 1000 plus death a days get very discouraging too, seems endless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 58 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Another day, another 50 something thousand cases another 1400 deaths. At this point can pretty much only count on the slower reporting days of Sun/Mon to come in less than 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts