Coronavirus

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

In all seriousness, it shows the issues with the testing, particularly the rapid result tests.  As a layperson, I am not sure if the technology is there to have highly accurate rapid result testing for this virus.  

All I know is the rapid result tests have a garbage response accuracy. Almost to the point that you'd be better off not taking one.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Georgia Students Suspended for Sharing Viral Pictures of Packed School Hallway

Yeah I didn't quite understand that...suspended for voicing a legit concern? 

[dta1984]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

In all seriousness, it shows the issues with the testing, particularly the rapid result tests.  As a layperson, I am not sure if the technology is there to have highly accurate rapid result testing for this virus.  

So what you're saying is....there's alot of false positives out there?  On top of the people who have left testing and get a letter saying they tested positive.  Hmm interesting...

[Powerball]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I didn't quite understand that...suspended for voicing a legit concern? 

Well, it is exurban Georgia...

[NEOH]

59 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

So what you're saying is....there's alot of false positives out there?  On top of the people who have left testing and get a letter saying they tested positive.  Hmm interesting...

Its just crazy. I've have several friends who are Cleveland Clinic doctors that indicated testing is almost useless. According to them, you can test positive due to having past common colds. DeWine even said his only symptom was a headache -- which appears to actually be quite common in those with COVID so who knows. The docs I know said that essentially everyone will be exposed to this... there is just no getting around it regardless of mask wearing. And the shocking part is that they don't seem overly concerned about it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Its just crazy. I've have several friends who are Cleveland Clinic doctors that indicated testing is almost useless. According to them, you can test positive due to having past common colds. DeWine even said his only symptom was a headache -- which appears to actually be quite common in those with COVID so who knows. The docs I know said that essentially everyone will be exposed to this... there is just no getting around it regardless of mask wearing. And the shocking part is that they don't seem overly concerned about it. 

The antibody testing is even worse. Has like a 30% success rate. Matthew Stafford also had a false positive covid test. I spoke with a client of mine who works at department of health in erie county and shes seen several as well. 

[wisconsinwx]

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

The problem with doing it in those areas, which are mostly rural, if an outbreak does happen you immediately exacerbate the limited medical facilities and testing in those areas.

He’s right though, I bet that church wasn’t following common precautions like mask wearing.  I think if schools opening do follow precautions like that it will be manageable. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

15 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

A significant portion of our population is anti-science and anti-expert.  Everything is a conspiracy to them.  QAnon has gotten very popular over the past few months.

Absolutely. You add in the contrarians who are opposed to the precautions just for the sake of being opposed and you pretty much have a "how to spread a virus" playbook. 

[Powerball]

Their leaders are finally admitting what those protests in Michigan with the confederate flags were all about...

Michigan Commissioner Blames Black People For Virus, Uses N-Word

"When asked by a colleague why he wasn’t wearing a mask before the meeting on Tuesday, Leelanau County road commissioner Tom Eckerle said “well this whole thing is because of them (racial slur) down in Detroit,"

[OSUmetstud]

11 hours ago, Stebo said:

All I know is the rapid result tests have a garbage response accuracy. Almost to the point that you'd be better off not taking one.

Not sure this is true stebo. Theres a strong push to get more frequent antigen testing off the ground with cheaper paper strip type testing. We are testing a great deal of the people far too late in the disease course for any benefit for contract tracing. On average, the people who are testing positve are no longer infectious so its only serving as a diagnosis, nothing more. 

 

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

With the Atlantic hurricane season now expected to have at least 25 named storms, and the heat wave earlier this summer in Siberia, is it just me or does anyone else think that COVID-19 (the virus itself and the effects) might actually be altering the weather this year?  This article thinks so and is using the early Arctic ice melt as an example:

https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/climate-conundrum-could-covid-19-be-linked-to-early-arctic-ice-melt/

[OSUmetstud]

False negatives are way more common than false positives. False positives are extremely rare and are most likely the result of contamination.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/covid-19-false-positives-1.5555322

[Hoosier]

Record daily number of confirmed cases in Indiana.  Of course the positive percentage is important to look at as well.  That has been hovering in the high single digits.

Some states have gotten down to 1% or 2% positivity rate.  Never really got it down as far in this state, but otoh, didn't spike as bad as some others.  Been more of a slow to moderate burn.

[SchaumburgStormer]

52 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Record daily number of confirmed cases in Indiana.  Of course the positive percentage is important to look at as well.  That has been hovering in the high single digits.

Some states have gotten down to 1% or 2% positivity rate.  Never really got it down as far in this state, but otoh, didn't spike as bad as some others.  Been more of a slow to moderate burn.

IL with over 2,000 cases today. Full blown 2nd wave occurring. 

[mattb65]

This virus is relentless and constantly waiting in the shadows to emerge if given even the slightest opportunity.

Here in Hawaii we avoided the first wave but the second wave is upon us and our cases are rising the fastest of anywhere in the country. We were lucky to have started from a very low level of prevalence in the community but it's crazy how fast it can take off if left unchecked. The state has closed bars, pushed back school openings, pushed back plans to open tourism and now closed beaches and public parks.

It's pretty disheartening. There's been a surge of hospitalizations that is rising quickly over the last week+.  They are discussing another stay at home type order if we continue to have >50 cases a day on average but trying to implement as many measures that dont significantly impact businesses as they can before going further.

[Santa Clause]

It’s sad, but I think this virus would have to have the impact of an Ebola or Avian Flu for everyone to take it seriously(impossible, because symptoms and death rate would kill it out). There’s just enough doubt seeded that it won’t be bad for them or their family, or just doubt in the virus altogether that we have a perfect storm. This thing will be spreading like wildfire for the foreseeable future.

[dta1984]

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

False negatives are way more common than false positives. False positives are extremely rare and are most likely the result of contamination.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/covid-19-false-positives-1.5555322

How do we really know though?  If you get a test and are positive, you are then supposed to quarantine.  How would you know if you never really were positive? 

[OSUmetstud]

13 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

How do we really know though?  If you get a test and are positive, you are then supposed to quarantine.  How would you know if you never really were positive? 

The scientists aren't making up the the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. 

[madwx]

39 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

How do we really know though?  If you get a test and are positive, you are then supposed to quarantine.  How would you know if you never really were positive? 

if you get a test and are negative you don't have to quarantine.  How would you know if you never really were negative?

[dta1984]

8 minutes ago, madwx said:

if you get a test and are negative you don't have to quarantine.  How would you know if you never really were negative?

True, it goes both ways.  My point, the data doesn't seem too reliable. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

IL with over 2,000 cases today. Full blown 2nd wave occurring. 

Bad timing as hardly any schools have reopened yet, outside of a district here and there.  I saw that Chicago public schools will be doing all virtual learning.  That will help keep the Illinois numbers lower than they would have been.

Will be interesting to see what happens as we get into the fall and winter.  There has been much speculation about the "2nd wave" as the seasons change.  I think there is some merit to that, but a lot of the case trends with this are driven by how open a particular state is.  Most states are going to be having in person schooling at least in parts of the state, so imo that additional "reopening" will be what sets off a 2nd round in areas that are currently at low levels.   

[madwx]

12 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

True, it goes both ways.  My point, the data doesn't seem too reliable. 

That's the tough thing about this.  There is no telltale symptom that everyone has so for a good portion of people, without getting testing you have no idea if you have/had it.

[OSUmetstud]

19 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

True, it goes both ways.  My point, the data doesn't seem too reliable. 

How do we know ANYTHING???

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Not sure this is true stebo. Theres a strong push to get more frequent antigen testing off the ground with cheaper paper strip type testing. We are testing a great deal of the people far too late in the disease course for any benefit for contract tracing. On average, the people who are testing positve are no longer infectious so its only serving as a diagnosis, nothing more. 

 

I am for rapid response testing, my point is the current rapid response tests are not good.

[OSUmetstud]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I am for rapid response testing, my point is the current rapid response tests are not good.

I'm pretty sure the current rapid tests (like the Abbott idnow) are the similar ones Michael Mina is talking about in that twitter thread. We dont need the sensitivity of the pcr test for community survaillance and beating down R. The pcr test only outperforms the rapid tests when there's a very little viral RNA. 

[weatherbo]

No one mentioning NYC deciding it's safe to reopen schools and students to return this fall?    

I mean, if NY can do it safely, most us po-dunk places should be able to.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

No one mentioning NYC deciding it's safe to reopen schools and students to return this fall?    

I mean, if NY can do it safely, most us po-dunk places should be able to.

After getting ravaged in the winter/spring, NY did a good job in beating it down.  They have been running like 1% positivity rate there for quite a long time I think.  It is the right decision to open the schools there, but obviously have to keep an eye on the data.  Given what they went through, I would think they will have a hair trigger there if it trends too far in the wrong direction.

[weatherbo]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

After getting ravaged in the winter/spring, NY did a good job in beating it down.  They have been running like 1% positivity rate there for quite a long time I think.  It is the right decision to open the schools there, but obviously have to keep an eye on the data.  Given what they went through, I would think they will have a hair trigger there if it trends too far in the wrong direction.

I think it bodes well for the rest of the country and will signal a trend in what most schools decide to do.

[Hoosier]

NYC schools opening may be beneficial in a way.  Since that area had more widespread infection than the rest of the country, it may give a better idea of how prevalent that getting reinfected is.  So far you hear some anecdotes here and there, but we should start hearing a lot more stories if immunity tends to wane within months.

[OSUmetstud]

16 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I think it bodes well for the rest of the country and will signal a trend in what most schools decide to do.

NYS school metrics are based on community transmission. I really wish we ge to the point where we regularly test students but that's the best alternative. You just can't open normally if you're having lots of community transmission.