Coronavirus

[dan11295]

Still trying to explain how the numbers in places like WI/IA have come down so much with no mitigation. Maybe its just something in now epidemics waves work. Even without true herd immunity you can have a peak caused by herd resistance following by at least a short term decline. Wave started in upper Midwest and propagated through rest of the country. Basically everywhere outside of that region is continuing to spike. With many high population states involved (e.g. PA, NY, CA) they will offset any Midwest declines for now. Also of note: VA/NC/SC/AZ all had record numbers of cases today.

[Scorpion]

Probably hit herd immunity here in Wisconsin. Vast majority of cases like mine not even as bad as a common cold. The media and folks begging for lockdowns are probably in for disappointing numbers next few days.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Real effects from Thanksgiving should start showing up starting about now. A lot of tests from Wednesday are now starting to come back, which would be 1-2 days after many people would get symptoms (which would be 4-5 days after Thanksgiving generally).

 

It will start showing up next week and then God help us.

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Still trying to explain how the numbers in places like WI/IA have come down so much with no mitigation. Maybe its just something in now epidemics waves work. Even without true herd immunity you can have a peak caused by herd resistance following by at least a short term decline. Wave started in upper Midwest and propagated through rest of the country. Basically everywhere outside of that region is continuing to spike. With many high population states involved (e.g. PA, NY, CA) they will offset any Midwest declines for now. Also of note: VA/NC/SC/AZ all had record numbers of cases today.

I seem to remember Iowa putting in a mask mandate a while back, but 1) I'm not 100% sure on that, and 2) if they did, I'm not sure when it happened.

The part about some partial/small herd immunity makes sense, though is a bit speculative.  The next several days will be revealing to see if those states were able to make it through Thanksgiving and still not have any rise in cases. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, Scorpion said:

Probably hit herd immunity here in Wisconsin. Vast majority of cases like mine not even as bad as a common cold. The media and folks begging for lockdowns are probably in for disappointing numbers next few days.

Highly doubt that. Just look at Arizona and New York 

[Hoosier]

I think there's a difference between true herd immunity and some potential partial immunity after some threshold get sick within a certain period of time.  In true herd immunity, cases would plummet to extremely low levels and essentially be background noise, which is not the case in the upper Midwest states even though there have been declines.  

[StormfanaticInd]

10 minutes ago, Scorpion said:

Probably hit herd immunity here in Wisconsin. Vast majority of cases like mine not even as bad as a common cold. The media and folks begging for lockdowns are probably in for disappointing numbers next few days.

Also to achieve herd immunity in Wisconsin even with just 1 percent mortality would mean 58,000 dead

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think there's a difference between true herd immunity and some potential partial immunity after some threshold get sick within a certain period of time.  In true herd immunity, cases would plummet to extremely low levels and essentially be background noise, which is not the case in the upper Midwest states even though there have been declines.  

There haven't even been declines, anyone that thinks we are going toward any sort of immunity is just an idiot. We won't have any sort of appreciable immunity until the vaccine.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There haven't even been declines, anyone that thinks we are going toward any sort of immunity is just an idiot. We won't have any sort of appreciable immunity until the vaccine.

I mean, look at states like ND, SD, IA, WI.  The numbers have gone down there.  I will be very interested to see if that can continue through the next week or two though as the Thanksgiving period is accounted for.

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

I mean, look at states like ND, SD, IA, WI.  The numbers have gone down there.  I will be very interested to see if that can continue through the next week or two though as the Thanksgiving period is accounted for.

They will go up then.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

They will go up then.

Yeah, it's hard to believe they won't go up to some extent, even if the theory about some partial immunity is true (have to remember that per capita, those northern Plains/upper Midwest areas have had more cases than just about anybody).  There would've been many opportunities for spread on Thanksgiving.  If the numbers do have a rebound, the next question is if it's a smallish rebound or does it get all the way back to the levels from a few weeks ago?

[vortex]

Me and 3 coworkers all tested positive for the antibodies (we all caught COVID a month ago). We donated blood to The Red Cross last Friday and they automatically test for the antibodies.  
Took a week for test results to come back. 
So now we signed up to donate our plasma in 50 days.  Make a few bucks doing it too.  

[BuffaloWeather]

History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. (October-December) Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think.

I thought the CDC recently estimated the number to be 50 some million cases.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Hoosier said:

I thought the CDC recently estimated the number to be 50 some million cases.

58 million through Sep 30th. It didn't include Oct-December cases. If you extrapolate, we're near 120 million based on how many cases we've had the last 2 months.

[StormfanaticInd]

Illinois Reports 9,887 New Coronavirus Cases, 208 Additional Deaths Saturday

The state’s hospitalization numbers continued their slow decline on Saturday, with 5,331 patients currently hospitalized due to the virus. Of those patients, 1,134 are currently in intensive care units, while 694 are on ventilators.

[Hoosier]

I don't think we're still only catching 1 in 8 cases in the US.  Would like to think we are better than that.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations are getting slightly better here in Indiana but still at record levels 

[StormfanaticInd]

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think we're still only catching 1 in 8 cases in the US.  Would like to think we are better than that.

Here is the full breakdown, sorry was 53 million by end of Sep, not 58.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

Results

We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0–3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8–9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020.

That was based on 6,891,764 confirmed infections by Sep 30th. We've more than doubled that already and rising quickly.

[dan11295]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think we're still only catching 1 in 8 cases in the US.  Would like to think we are better than that.

Has to be better than that now. 10.8% of ND has tested positive. no way ~85% has been exposed would be beyond expected herd immunity levels. 1 in 4-5 today is a better estimate.

[StormfanaticInd]

I think the current hospitalizations is the last of the Halloween surge. Thanksgiving surge in hospitalizations should really taking off in about 2 weeks 

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Has to be better than that now. 10.8% of ND has tested positive. no way ~85% has been exposed would be beyond expected herd immunity levels. 1 in 4-5 today is a better estimate.

If you set it at 1 in 5 since October 1 and add that onto the estimate ending September 30, it would mean an actual number of cases around/over 90 million.

[StormfanaticInd]

[RyanDe680]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sounds like a good plan to me.

"Former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate John Delaney has suggested giving Americans who are willing to take a coronavirus vaccine a $1,500 stimulus check."

https://www.wane.com/news/stimulus-checks-would-a-1500-payment-make-you-more-likely-to-get-a-covid-vaccine/

I agree with this, but we need stimulus now.  I think that those that are unemployed or have earned under a certain pay should be entitled to $1k now, and those willing to vaccinate receive $500 and perhaps up to $900 per family...  similar to healthcare deductibles.  

 

but the stimulus now is necessary.

 

I know this because I am in business.  

[dan11295]

Looking at the Ohio data, its a mixed bag with continued high numbers of cases (10k+ past 2 days) and rising positivity yet hospitalizations have started to steadily fall past 4 days. Indiana is very similar.

[RyanDe680]

1 in 2.5, 1 in 8, 1 in 4 - its all speculation.  no one has any idea

 

we're no where close to herd immunity.

[dan11295]

Just watching a report on potential risks associated with retail shopping.  Very pertinent with the start of holiday shopping season. Places like Big Box stores have already been linked to spread in cities like El Paso. You get stores not enforcing capacity limits and people not wearing masks or wearing them correctly its just a recipe for accelerated spread.

[Hoosier]

52 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Looking at the Ohio data, its a mixed bag with continued high numbers of cases (10k+ past 2 days) and rising positivity yet hospitalizations have started to steadily fall past 4 days. Indiana is very similar.

Keep an eye on the number of new admits to the hospitals as well.  Covid Tracking provides that data, but only some states report it.  Ideally, that number would trend consistently downward.  As I said yesterday, if the reason that the current hospital census is dropping in some states is because the number of deaths (you are released from the hospital if you die, of course) has reached the point that it is tipping the numbers, that is a hollow victory and only good from a capacity standpoint.

Recent data on new admissions for IN:

12/4:  436

12/3:  382

12/2:  430

12/1:  406

11/30:  386

11/29:  303

11/28:  389

 

Recent data on new admissions for Ohio:

12/4:  392

12/3:  396

12/2:  436

12/1:  585

11/30:  357

11/29:  245

11/28:  302

[IWXwx]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure how this would work.  People need the money ASAP and many won't have access to the vaccine for a few more months.  

 

2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

I agree with this, but we need stimulus now.  I think that those that are unemployed or have earned under a certain pay should be entitled to $1k now, and those willing to vaccinate receive $500 and perhaps up to $900 per family...  similar to healthcare deductibles.  

 

but the stimulus now is necessary.

 

I know this because I am in business.  

I agree with people needing help asap. I know that it makes it more complicated, but I would propose that form to be filled out similar to a W-4 sinifiying that you will get the shot when it becomes available. If you don't receive it when offered, it becomes a tax liability and the IRS would ultimately be responsible for collecting it if not voluntarily repaid.