Coronavirus

[Inverted_Trough]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

No economic impacts? Have you looked at the GDP?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

GDP is supposed to grow 30% this quarter though.  I think that’s his point.  Economy is mostly open now.  Definitely not going back to “normal” until next summer though.  

[StormfanaticInd]

I'd be very careful about comparing mortality rate. We do not know yet how this virus is going to behave this winter. Especially when combined with the regular seasonal flu

[dan11295]

In terms of severity, Covid is not in the same league as Spanish Flu, primarily due to the W-shaped mortality curve and higher observed mortality rates mentioned above. Besides these facts, its hard to make estimates how the numbers for both pandemics would be different if Covid was in 1918 and Spanish Flu occurred now. In general, populations are older now with more of the comorbidities that make them more vulnerable to Covid, but medical care has much advanced since 1918.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Michigan had its highest amount of new cases since March today, with a major outbreak in the schools in my county reported today 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Didn't Spanish flu have a fatality rate of 2.5% or something like that?  Covid-19 is probably more like 0.5% when you try to account for the large amount of undocumented cases.

And it seemed like the affected ages were different too...20-40-somethings were dropping like flies (and that ironically that included the grandfather of the president)

[StormfanaticInd]

Another basically 60k positive cases today. Almost a thousand deaths also. Definitely heading in the wrong direction 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Another basically 60k positive cases today. Almost a thousand deaths also. Definitely heading in the wrong direction 

A couple months from now we may be looking back on October as the good old days.  The projections farther out in time should be used with caution, but the IHME has the US at 2000+ deaths per day again by the time we get to late December.  Honestly, given the current situation, descent farther into fall/winter and a series of events which will present opportunities for more spread (halloween, in-person voting, Thanksgiving, etc) the IHME doesn't seem too unrealistic.

[Inverted_Trough]

What happened to T-cell memory?  I guess that theory is bunk.

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A couple months from now we may be looking back on October as the good old days.  The projections farther out in time should be used with caution, but the IHME has the US at 2000+ deaths per day again by the time we get to late December.  Honestly, given the current situation, descent farther into fall/winter and a series of events which will present opportunities for more spread (halloween, in-person voting, Thanksgiving, etc) the IHME doesn't seem too unrealistic.

Whats the latest on the vaccines?

[madwx]

the ride never ends

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

We’re having problems with training and onboarding due to this pandemic. We’ve got a few people in positions hired similar to mine that are basically doing intern-type work because we cannot relocate them or train them properly at this time.

I swear when all this dies down the amount of business travel I’ll have to do will be enormous.

[mention]Stebo [/mention] I think it’s okay to work from home, it’s not okay to make it illegal for a supply chain analyst or accountant to go into work.

Go into work and do what though, work on a computer? I mean there really isn't a reason for either to physically be in an office other than wanting to be in an office.

[Stebo]

32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Another basically 60k positive cases today. Almost a thousand deaths also. Definitely heading in the wrong direction 

We are rapidly flying off the rails and people seem to think that we should be back to normal, it just makes absolutely zero sense.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Whats the latest on the vaccines?

A couple of the trials were paused over safety concerns.  

Vaccine may come out before the end of the year, but that's not going to really help us through the rest of 2020.  The antibody therapies, even if they get approved for emergency use sometime soon, probably won't be widely available enough early on to really put a big dent in things.

[mississaugasnow]

3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

It's worth noting that in the first 25 weeks of the Spanish Flu in excess of 25 million people died.

 

Covid isn't even remotely close to that sort of disaster.

 

While I agree that currently this isn't the Spanish flu and unlikely to reach that magnitude. What I am positive about is when not if another Spanish flu scenario happens there will still be large parts of the population that will say "meh, I need that gym pump so ill roll the dice" or the guy saying masks won't save us ect.. 

[Hoosier]

It's too bad that the calendar isn't different and that there's not like 6 more months to work on vaccines/better treatments before fall/winter.  

[nwohweather]

Go into work and do what though, work on a computer? I mean there really isn't a reason for either to physically be in an office other than wanting to be in an office.

Distractions! Haha I’m going to lose my mind with all these Zoom meetings and calls that have to wait because people are home schooling their kids and what not.

I so miss people being in an office so I could just give them a ring or walk into their office. The pace of work seems to have slowed down

[StormfanaticInd]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's too bad that the calendar isn't different and that there's not like 6 more months to work on vaccines/better treatments before fall/winter.  

Yeah, time of year is definitely working against us right now. Through in a election and it just a very dire situation 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

We are rapidly flying off the rails and people seem to think that we should be back to normal, it just makes absolutely zero sense.

Its the very definition of insanity. 

[Guest ovweather]

39 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

What happened to T-cell memory?  I guess that theory is bunk.

I don’t think it’s a theory at all and why some people who test positive are asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms. There’s also the genetic aspect to the virus whereas some people might have a “Covid gene” making them more prone to the virus. And then there’s the whole certain blood types may be more immune to the virus. These are interesting theories that probably all have legitimacy but it’s just going to take a lot more time / research to understand how everything is linked.

[nwohweather]

Its the very definition of insanity. 

Not at all. Lol people don’t have a lot of patience and perseverance.

It’s clear at this point fatigue has set in

[Inverted_Trough]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Go into work and do what though, work on a computer? I mean there really isn't a reason for either to physically be in an office other than wanting to be in an office.

Socializing at the water cooler.  Running to the coffee machine five times a day.  Stopping by everyone's office to chat with people about their weekend plans.  Talking about the football games this weekend.  Schmoozing with the boss.  Gossiping about co-workers.  Half of the day is spent doing those things.  The other half of the day is spent commuting to the office so you can do those things.

[WaryWarren]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

We are rapidly flying off the rails and people seem to think that we should be back to normal, it just makes absolutely zero sense.

It makes sense if you listen to how the current administration has regarded masks in the past and how the President claims he's immune and the cure is Regeneron, which everyone will be able to access soon and for free. There's a gathering of 30 maskless college students two doors down from my girlfriend's place right now, listening to loud music and yelling and screaming at each other. I'd love to call the cops, but then they'd know who "ratted" them out. So annoying and hopeless.

[Inverted_Trough]

 

1 hour ago, ovweather said:

I don’t think it’s a theory at all and why some people who test positive are asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms. There’s also the genetic aspect to the virus whereas some people might have a “Covid gene” making them more prone to the virus. And then there’s the whole certain blood types may be more immune to the virus. These are interesting theories that probably all have legitimacy but it’s just going to take a lot more time / research to understand how everything is linked.

But some people argued that T-cell memory was the reason the virus basically disappeared from NYC and other northern states.  I thought that was bunk - the real reason is seasonality.  There appears to be a strong seasonal component to this virus.  I mentioned back in July how the Southern Hemisphere (and southern latitudes of the US) had most of the cases.  As the seasons change in the northern latitudes, cases are now decreasing in Brazil, India and South Africa, but drastically increasing in the northern US as well as Europe.

As far as how it relates to being asymptomatic....I'm not sure about that either.  I think the amount of viral exposure (viral load) has more to do with whether someone becomes symptomatic.  There also appears to be more symptomatic cases right now, compared to back over the summer.

[OSUmetstud]

8 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

What happened to T-cell memory?  I guess that theory is bunk.

The researchers who saw that were specifically concerned about its effect on vaccine trials. They've also been adamant that they don't know what it means. Cross reactive T cells could lead to less mild disease, could mean nothing, or could actually make thing worse. Cross reactive T cells were then weaponized by the right who then act as if the herd immunity threshold is 20% because 50% were immune. 

 

 

[dan11295]

6 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

 

But some people argued that T-cell memory was the reason the virus basically disappeared from NYC and other northern states.  I thought that was bunk - the real reason is seasonality.  There appears to be a strong seasonal component to this virus.  I mentioned back in July how the Southern Hemisphere (and southern latitudes of the US) had most of the cases.  As the seasons change in the northern latitudes, cases are now decreasing in Brazil, India and South Africa, but drastically increasing in the northern US as well as Europe.

As far as how it relates to being asymptomatic....I'm not sure about that either.  I think the amount of viral exposure (viral load) has more to do with whether someone becomes symptomatic.  There also appears to be more symptomatic cases right now, compared to back over the summer.

The fact that India/Southern Hemisphere is going down in cases combined with the spikes across board in Europe, Canada and U.S. Midwest argues strongly for a seasonal component (India flu season has a peak coinciding with the monsoon in many areas of the country and cases are going down despite reopening more of their economy).

[NEOH]

8 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Socializing at the water cooler.  Running to the coffee machine five times a day.  Stopping by everyone's office to chat with people about their weekend plans.  Talking about the football games this weekend.  Schmoozing with the boss.  Gossiping about co-workers.  Half of the day is spent doing those things.  The other half of the day is spent commuting to the office so you can do those things.

  You watch too many sitcoms. What type of environment do you work in?! So instead of wasting time IN the office (see examples above), many employees are now losing productivity OUT of the office with the many distractions at home. As a business owner I will say that employees are more productive in the office. This may be somewhat unique to my industry but we have software to track employee productivity -- and it has fallen off of a cliff since people started working from home. There's just no disputing the reporting I receive. 

[A-L-E-K]

18 minutes ago, NEOH said:

  You watch too many sitcoms. What type of environment do you work in?! So instead of wasting time IN the office (see examples above), many employees are now losing productivity OUT of the office with the many distractions at home. As a business owner I will say that employees are more productive in the office. This may be somewhat unique to my industry but we have software to track employee productivity -- and it has fallen off of a cliff since people started working from home. There's just no disputing the reporting I receive. 

lol sucks 

[IWXwx]

This graph from the New York Times shows that our subforum sucks.

[NEOH]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol sucks 

40 somethings -  porn, sports and news websites - 32% of day spent on those sites

30 somethings - apparel, sports, social networks - 40% of day spent on those sites

20 somethings - social networks, apparel - 44% of day spent on those sites

[A-L-E-K]

get a load of this narc^