Coronavirus

[nwohweather]

12 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yes I am pro-lockdown because I trust the doctors making the call and because I work in an airport terminal and don't want thousands of sick people here. I will cast whatever judgement I want though if people are going to be purposely obtuse.

See this is the one problem I have, strict measures need to be in place, but a lockdown is just too far. I understand your personal worry, but at the end of the day business has to run in some function. I mean personally we are working with sales desperately to outpace their drop due to this virus, and if our team cannot reduce costs at a greater value than our sales dip then it's not I the supply chain analyst that will be jobless, it's the guy making $23 an hour in a plant that will. I by no means grew up with money, so it's a tough burden I take personally.

Also I have two $200K approx. projects happening in Michigan that I need to fly into Detroit for. It doesn't matter if I have to wear scuba diver suit, we have to get the ball rolling in the meeting room to hammer out a good deal for these projects. You can only do so much over a Zoom call, so one way or another I'll be in Detroit in July.

The reason the lockdown is so damaging is because it is a small business killer, and that is wildly important because small businesses cannot be outsourced.  Your local hardware stores, restaurants, bars, construction (HVAC, roofing etc.) are huge to local economies, so keeping things entirely closed is going to be devastating to an area that does not need more of it. Lol the last thing Michigan needs is more blight

[Hoosier]

Big increase in new cases in my county... I think it might be the highest day total yet but if not it's close.  Almost tied Marion county in new cases despite us having half of their population. 

The positive percentage rate on this new round of results was just under 18%, which is actually a bit higher than the long-term positive percentage rate in my county (which is just under 16%).  It is one day and hopefully the numbers/rates are better in the coming days.

[Jonger]

17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

There have been 104 confirmed cases in the entire UP.  MOST of the 10 deaths(13 total up-wide) in Marquette county have been at a nursing home, as well as a good deal of the confirmed cases in general. I will wear a mask where required, but other than that I am living my life and enjoying my freedoms.  If that makes me a careless egotistical asshole, good.

My county has a similar population as the entire U.P and we have had around 25 deaths....

This targets people with RAGING uncontrolled diabetes and elderly folks who would have died from a light breeze blown on them.

Of course out of the 100,000 people, you'll find statistical noise that makes great headlines and examples for partisans to point to.

[Jonger]

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big increase in new cases in my county... I think it might be the highest day total yet but if not it's close.  Almost tied Marion county in new cases despite us having half of their population. 

The positive percentage rate on this new round of results was just under 18%, which is actually a bit higher than the long-term positive percentage rate in my county (which is just under 16%).  It is one day and hopefully the numbers/rates are better in the coming days.

That means you had more tests conducted than normal.

[Jonger]

15 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Yes there are hot spots in the country.   The majority of MI counties tho, are just like here in the UP. The cases in MI are mostly in a "tri-county" area.  You have to understand the frustration the majority of Michiganders feel who's lives have been not only disrupted (to say the least), but in some cases, changed forever... for a virus that didn't really affect the community they live in. There's two sides to every argument, and tbh, I'm a little tired of only one side being considered.  Somehow, if I want to live my life, I'm then selfish and don't care about humanity. **** that.  And **** your narrow mind.

Livingston is being screwed over by being lumped in with Detroit. I wore a mask twice in 3 months and that was when I had to enter Wayne county businesses. 

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, nwohweather said:

See this is the one problem I have, strict measures need to be in place, but a lockdown is just too far. I understand your personal worry, but at the end of the day business has to run in some function. I mean personally we are working with sales desperately to outpace their drop due to this virus, and if our team cannot reduce costs at a greater value than our sales dip then it's not I the supply chain analyst that will be jobless, it's the guy making $23 an hour in a plant that will. I by no means grew up with money, so it's a tough burden I take personally.

Also I have two $200K approx. projects happening in Michigan that I need to fly into Detroit for. It doesn't matter if I have to wear scuba diver suit, we have to get the ball rolling in the meeting room to hammer out a good deal for these projects. You can only do so much over a Zoom call, so one way or another I'll be in Detroit in July.

The reason the lockdown is so damaging is because it is a small business killer, and that is wildly important because small businesses cannot be outsourced.  Your local hardware stores, restaurants, bars, construction (HVAC, roofing etc.) are huge to local economies, so keeping things entirely closed is going to be devastating to an area that does not need more of it. Lol the last thing Michigan needs is more blight

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. 

I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice.  However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole.  It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. 

It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons.  This should not need to happen.  It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over.  In other words, incentivize people to stay home.  Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society.  And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process.

Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils.  As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits.  Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country.  We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life.    

The government deserves a ton of blame for this.  Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

That means you had more tests conducted than normal.

That is true... there were more tests conducted than average, which is why I mentioned the 18% positive test rate from that batch of results.  That is not a good percentage... you want it to be in the single digits.  But again, it's one day.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Jonger said:

My county has a similar population as the entire U.P and we have had around 25 deaths....

This targets people with RAGING uncontrolled diabetes and elderly folks who would have died from a light breeze blown on them.

Of course out of the 100,000 people, you'll find statistical noise that makes great headlines and examples for partisans to point to.

It isn't a diabetic or elderly only virus. Sure they get it the worst but it has impacted millions and killed over 100k just in this country alone. Stats back this up no matter what you think.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. 

I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice.  However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole.  It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. 

It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons.  This should not need to happen.  It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over.  In other words, incentivize people to stay home.  Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society.  And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process.

Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils.  As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits.  Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country.  We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life.    

The government deserves a ton of blame for this.  Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

This post is so on point.

[Hoosier]

Some guy in Indiana is trolling Michigan with these billboards.  

https://www.wlns.com/news/national/indiana-billboards-poke-fun-at-michigan-coronavirus-restrictions/amp/

[nwohweather]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. 

I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice.  However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole.  It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. 

It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons.  This should not need to happen.  It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over.  In other words, incentivize people to stay home.  Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society.  And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process.

Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils.  As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits.  Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country.  We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life.    

The government deserves a ton of blame for this.  Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

It's got its downsides for sure but that wealth is a product of that ruthless nature. Its not perfect but it makes us so resilient towards major disruptions which is why the American economy has lapped the world. I understand this is an unsettling thought to many, especially if you have a more left wing view of the world. I by no means am saying this to brag but my first offer out of college was $65K with a $5K signing bonus and was one of the lower paid people among my friends. One girl I was friends with got $80K from Dow Chemical lol.

Could things be better? Yes. But even going to Canada it's shocking how much more personal wealth we have than them. 

[Stebo]

23 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's got its downsides for sure but that wealth is a product of that ruthless nature. Its not perfect but it makes us so resilient towards major disruptions which is why the American economy has lapped the world. I understand this is an unsettling thought to many, especially if you have a more left wing view of the world. I by no means am saying this to brag but my first offer out of college was $65K with a $5K signing bonus and was one of the lower paid people among my friends. One girl I was friends with got $80K from Dow Chemical lol.

Could things be better? Yes. But even going to Canada it's shocking how much more personal wealth we have than them. 

But very much disproportionately distributed here.

[nwohweather]

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

But very much disproportionately distributed here.

It is. I mean I won't lie I admire the fact that you and other meteorologists on this board actually went into this field. I personally love weather and history, and considered strongly becoming a history teacher/coach. Ultimately I couldn't refuse the allure of money and the opportunities in life it offers. 

There isn't much you can do about the way things are. I think ultimately major reform is needed in the public school systems as opportunities are stunningly unequal based on where you live. But this past presidential primary season was a good example of how something like Beavis said could never be accepted here. Bernie Sanders was absolutely railroaded by the democratic establishment for long time favorites such as Hillary and now Joe Biden. 

When even the liberal party doesn't allow itself to go in that direction well you have your answer

[nwohweather]

Well I guess this thread is done. Lol social distancing pretty much took a nose dive with the nation going full 1968 race riots. Stay safe people, this year keeps rolling down hill

[King James]

Well I guess this thread is done. Lol social distancing pretty much took a nose dive with the nation going full 1968 race riots. Stay safe people, this year keeps rolling down hill

How else were they going to change the news cycle. Hard to drop 3 months of non stop coverage without having something else queued up

Our reality is carefully crafted. TV is programming of the mind, nothing more

We should all be outside doing what we love, enjoying the weather

Love your family and be good to your neighbors all.

[Chambana]

Had to take the Covid-19 test yesterday. 3 co workers came back positive, 2 of which are exhibiting symptoms, and I came in direct contact with them. 

[Hoosier]

52 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Had to take the Covid-19 test yesterday. 3 co workers came back positive, 2 of which are exhibiting symptoms, and I came in direct contact with them. 

Did you get the swab from hell or something less invasive?

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Did you get the swab from hell or something less invasive?

I'm a little bothered by that indiana serology survey that you posted a week or two ago. The results of the study showed 1.1 % with antibodies and another 1.7 % with active infections as of 4/29. It appears they divided the dead at of the end of the study, 1099, by 2.8 percent of the indiana population. I think that's flawed methodology. It takes like two weeks on average to die from symptom onset...if they wanted to included active infections than they ought to have lagged the ifr calculation and included deaths that occurred at least week or two after 4/29.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'm a little bothered by that indiana serology survey that you posted a week or two ago. The results of the study showed 1.1 % with antibodies and another 1.7 % with active infections as of 4/29. It appears they divided the dead at of the end of the study, 1099, by 2.8 percent of the indiana population. I think that's flawed methodology. It takes like two weeks on average to die from symptom onset...if they wanted to included active infections than they ought to have lagged the ifr calculation and included deaths that occurred at least week or two after 4/29.

Good point.  Didn't think of that at the time.  

Either way, most of the data from Indiana and elsewhere is pointing to an IFR between 0.5% and 1%... on average.  Some areas may be less and others may be higher. 

[Chicago Storm]

The ‘rona is old news.

Riot watch now.


.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The ‘rona is old news.

Riot watch now.


.

Gotta admit, I didn't know what would be able to knock the virus down in the news cycle since it is still killing about 1000 per day in this country.

Interesting times we are living in.  And probably more potential than usual for this stuff to persist and get worse since it is paired with the pandemic and the massive economic downturn.  

[madwx]

Many Americans have been unhappy for years.  With the leadership gap at the top and the pandemic putting more pressure on the lower and middle class this was inevitable unfortunately.

[nwohweather]

What a horrible night nationally. I’d say it is safe to say this is the worst night for riots since the King assassination in our country. Apparently 50% of Charleston businesses have been vandalized

[Hoosier]

18 hours ago, nwohweather said:

What a horrible night nationally. I’d say it is safe to say this is the worst night for riots since the King assassination in our country. Apparently 50% of Charleston businesses have been vandalized

The magnitude/scope of this does have a different feel than the stuff that has happened from time to time in the past several years, and I think the effects of the pandemic are certainly playing a role.  Lots of stores and gas stations are shutting down early around here out of an abundance of caution, and there has been a lot of looting just across the border in IL this afternoon.  This isn't just a big city thing.  It has moved into the smaller cities and suburbs.

[King James]

The magnitude/scope of this does have a different feel than the stuff that has happened from time to time in the past several years, and I think the effects of the pandemic are certainly playing a role.  Lots of stores and gas stations are shutting down early around here out of an abundance of caution, and there has been a lot of looting just across the border in IL this afternoon.  This isn't just a big city thing.  It has moved into the smaller cities and suburbs.

Protestors in Kankakee and around Olivet university

[nwohweather]

The magnitude/scope of this does have a different feel than the stuff that has happened from time to time in the past several years, and I think the effects of the pandemic are certainly playing a role.  Lots of stores and gas stations are shutting down early around here out of an abundance of caution, and there has been a lot of looting just across the border in IL this afternoon.  This isn't just a big city thing.  It has moved into the smaller cities and suburbs.

Absolutely. When you have 41 million people laid off that’s a lot of unhappy people with free time on their hands. I do worry these protests are going to lead to a huge increase in the virus, in 1918 the war bond drive parades and anti-war demonstrations spurred the Spanish Flu on significantly

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Absolutely. When you have 41 million people laid off that’s a lot of unhappy people with free time on their hands. I do worry these protests are going to lead to a huge increase in the virus, in 1918 the war bond drive parades and anti-war demonstrations spurred the Spanish Flu on significantly

I have noticed quite a bit of mask wearing in the crowds.  Not everyone of course but it has to help.  But then all the yelling and screaming that goes on expels more droplets.   

[nwohweather]

Yeah I’m thinking it’s going to spike like crazy here shortly

[purduewx80]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Yeah I’m thinking it’s going to spike like crazy here shortly

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/covid19/

[nwohweather]

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/covid19/

Meh hasn’t been too much to this point, but we will see what happens if the protests accelerate it. I think as a country we did pretty good overall adjusting to life with it in such short time, and current market data has been very robust.