Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

Well this will be interesting.  If you want to dine-in at a restaurant in Washington state, you will have to provide your contact info so they can reach you for contact tracing in the event that someone ends up getting sick.  

I have a feeling we are not going to see that policy in many red states.  Just a hunch. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/to-reopen-washington-state-restaurants-will-have-to-keep-log-of-customers-to-aid-in-contact-tracing/?fbclid=IwAR0XczlZRtJkXhb5l_EtwY1JDZMZHQzRxtZeamndkfAdEtFQyuVBeoNEToU

[RyanDe680]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

But also had the highest test count as well,  around 30k.

True, but 2,400 positives with 20k tests means the same as 4,000 positives with 30k tests.  Today was the worst day in terms of % positive. 

[RogueWaves]

5 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Yeah we had little choice. Tourism is soooo important to this area, that a lot of the talk is why would someone visit from Detroit or Chicago if these coastal communities are full of shuttered businesses. 

 

Honestly you you guys are lucky in the Rust Belt to be so dependent on manufacturing right now. Because the service industry is king, the state was basically saying we will be broke unless we figure out some way to open things.

In a twist of irony, the shutdown to "save the medical establishment" in the short term is now in jeopardy of hosing that same medical industry which is suffering real financial hardship and going broke here in "perpetual corona hell" Michigan. Somebody has finally woken up to the fact and yet another lawsuit was filed to re-open business. 

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/05/health-care-groups-sue-governor-claim-michigan-coronavirus-curve-flattened-and-call-emergency-orders-unconstitutional.html

 

Quote

The lawsuit claims the basis for Whitmer’s March 10 state of emergency declaration was, in part, “grossly inaccurate” data from the Centers for Disease Control in March forecast between 160 million and 214 million coronavirus cases and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths nationally in a worst-case scenario.

 

As of May 10, there had been 1.3 million confirmed cases and 79,756 deaths, between 5% and 40% of the CDC’s March projection.

 

“Thankfully, the goal of flattening the curve has been achieved, and the dire predictions of overwhelmed hospitals have not come to pass,” the lawsuit said. " ... Michigan is under an unlawfully re-declared state of emergency, with the Executive Branch dictating the law, and there is no end in sight.

 

[RyanDe680]

this is a great read:
 

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

[Jonger]

6 hours ago, UMB WX said:

ronger strikes again.

Oh look... an Ampol poster.

[RogueWaves]

12 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

this is a great read:
 

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

"Infectious dosage"

Back in 1918 pandemic they tried every way possible to prove exposure=automatic illness. Every attempt failed. There was no such thing as guaranteed transmission. Apparently if your immunity was decent you weren't likely to become a victim.

[wisconsinwx]

8 hours ago, Jonger said:

Oh look... an Ampol poster.

I have to say it, but wrong again (although you're not wrong as often as the liberal bunch would have you believe).

[nwohweather]

Just thought I would post this article from today..

Fauci praises South Carolina's response to Covid-19

His exact quote is...

SC's measures in his opinion “ would optimize your capability of reopening.”

“I’d almost want to clone that and make sure other people hear about that and see what you’ve been doing"

Our department of health or DHEC is vigorously ramping up tests, hiring contact tracers, and people to maintain the database. In my opinion this is the greatest failure of the Midwest on the whole, instead of finding solutions to open reasonably with strict measures and tracking, those governors by and large have resorted in extreme measures. Why in South Carolina have we not had armed protests and death threats? Because the reasonable solutions have led to mostly reasonable responses from the public. We have curbed a spike in this disease and increased testing considerably, already have statewide antibody testing, and tonight I'm going to play in a golf league and then get BBQ with friends. That is a pipe dream in many of the Great Lakes states because the focus seems off. 

I love talking weather with you all and seeing how things are going back home, so my heart goes out to everyone for how this is affecting you guys.  My fear is the extreme measures are going to lead to greater tragedy and economic loss in an area that needs none of that.

[madwx]

8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Just thought I would post this article from today..

Fauci praises South Carolina's response to Covid-19

His exact quote is...

SC's measures in his opinion “ would optimize your capability of reopening.”

“I’d almost want to clone that and make sure other people hear about that and see what you’ve been doing"

Our department of health or DHEC is vigorously ramping up tests, hiring contact tracers, and people to maintain the database. In my opinion this is the greatest failure of the Midwest on the whole, instead of finding solutions to open reasonably with strict measures and tracking, those governors by and large have resorted in extreme measures. Why in South Carolina have we not had armed protests and death threats? Because the reasonable solutions have led to mostly reasonable responses from the public. We have curbed a spike in this disease and increased testing considerably, already have statewide antibody testing, and tonight I'm going to play in a golf league and then get BBQ with friends. That is a pipe dream in many of the Great Lakes states because the focus seems off. 

I love talking weather with you all and seeing how things are going back home, so my heart goes out to everyone for how this is affecting you guys.  My fear is the extreme measures are going to lead to greater tragedy and economic loss in an area that needs none of that.

It's a good thing y'all are ramping up testing because your current testing numbers are paltry.

 

[nwohweather]

7 minutes ago, madwx said:

It's a good thing y'all are ramping up testing because your current testing numbers are paltry.

 

The goal was to match the ramp up with the opening. Right now the majority of testing is being done in healthcare facilities, nursing homes and minority-heavy communities where it is disproportionately affecting them. But SC is right in line with the vast majority of states who have tested per 1M people, most are in that $15-25K range with a few outliers.

[madwx]

5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

The goal was to match the ramp up with the opening. Right now the majority of testing is being done in healthcare facilities, nursing homes and minority-heavy communities where it is disproportionately affecting them. But SC is right in line with the vast majority of states who have tested per 1M people, most are in that $15-25K range with a few outliers.

I think you guys are doing a reasonable job opening up but to say you are in line with the rest of states in testing is an outright lie,  you have the second least amount of tests per capita in the nation, the US average is 30k tests per million and there are 20 states with over 30k test per 1M so no there aren't just "a few outliers"

[Hoosier]

Ugly death count in IL.  I think it might be their highest daily number yet but someone from there would probably know better.

[Hoosier]

Saw a study came out that found lower transmission rate in hotter weather.  

I think it's obvious at this point that we will be dealing with this in a significant way throughout the summer, even if transmission is lower than we've seen so far.  The extent of a summer dropoff won't be nearly like it is with the flu. 

[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ugly death count in IL.  I think it might be their highest daily number yet but someone from there would probably know better.

It is. Previous high was <180.

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

I think you guys are doing a reasonable job opening up but to say you are in line with the rest of states in testing is an outright lie,  you have the second least amount of tests per capita in the nation, the US average is 30k tests per million and there are 20 states with over 30k test per 1M so no there aren't just "a few outliers"

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21193848/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths-tests-by-state

Need to chill man I'm just going off of this chart. Doesn't look to me like the average is 30K

[madwx]

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21193848/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths-tests-by-state

Need to chill man I'm just going off of this chart. Doesn't look to me like the average is 30K

I just got done with a good workout, I'm sitting out on the patio and I'm about to grill some dinner, I haven't been this chilled in awhile.

I don't want to antagonize, we're all in this together and you have a lot of good points, but when I see incorrect information being used and I have the correct data, I have an obligation to spread the correct information.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/  

This site has more updated values (they scrape the data daily from each states websites),  where you'll see that South Carolina is one of the laggards(along with a handful of midwestern states).  Sure South Carolina is doing some good things, like loosening the lockdown, having a reasonable reopening strategy etc. but testing ain't one of those things, and until testing is an order of magnitude better, you (and a lot of other states) won't truly be in front of this

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, madwx said:

I just got done with a good workout, I'm sitting out on the patio and I'm about to grill some dinner, I haven't been this chilled in awhile.

I have never been as happy to have a pair of adjustable weights for home use... they are those block things that can adjust to over 100 lbs each.  Easy to dedicate yourself to working out when so many places are closed lol.  I heard some people have been jacking up the prices of those things.

[madwx]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I have never been as happy to have a pair of adjustable weights for home use... they are those block things that can adjust to over 100 lbs each.  Easy to dedicate yourself to working out when so many places are closed lol.  I heard some people have been jacking up the prices of those things.

Honestly this pandemic has been great motivation for me to get back in shape.  With the lack of things to do/lack of places to eat out and the general fact that this hits people in poor health harder I’ve been working out more than I ever had.  Lost 20 pounds since early March and hope to keep it going 

[Nflow6]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Saw a study came out that found lower transmission rate in hotter weather.  

I think it's obvious at this point that we will be dealing with this in a significant way throughout the summer, even if transmission is lower than we've seen so far.  The extent of a summer dropoff won't be nearly like it is with the flu. 

H1N1 extended into June far beyond the "normal" decline month of Flu in the Midwest which is usually April. I feel this virus will decline in a significant way in June in the Midwest but if we leave June not much better off than we entered, forget about it we are stuck till herd immunity.  

[Hoosier]

Now there are questions about the Abbott rapid result test.  Potentially far too high false negative rate. 

[Hoosier]

43 minutes ago, madwx said:

Honestly this pandemic has been great motivation for me to get back in shape.  With the lack of things to do/lack of places to eat out and the general fact that this hits people in poor health harder I’ve been working out more than I ever had.  Lost 20 pounds since early March and hope to keep it going 

I gained a few since then and am 195 lbs (at 5'11").  I'm gonna tell myself that it's all muscle gain.  

[Jonger]

I'm actually enjoying the lack of traffic and reduced crowds. Large cities are probably much nicer than usual right now. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Our illustrious legislature and a complicit court have successfully undermined our governor's efforts to keep us safe. After doing relatively well at keeping case counts from exploding the last six weeks, Wisconsin is now the only state with NO official state-level restrictions or guidelines in effect.

And I've been going to work all this time, in a workplace where several people have to touch a lot of the same devices. I've been trying to encourage my coworkers to wear masks, but so far only a few have signed on.

[purduewx80]

 

27 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Our illustrious legislature and a complicit court have successfully undermined our governor's efforts to keep us safe. After doing relatively well at keeping case counts from exploding the last six weeks, Wisconsin is now the only state with NO official state-level restrictions or guidelines in effect.

And I've been going to work all this time, in a workplace where several people have to touch a lot of the same devices. I've been trying to encourage my coworkers to wear masks, but so far only a few have signed on.

Crowded bars immediately after the ruling - only in WI. That partisan state Supreme Court has always been a hot mess. 
https://wkow.com/2020/05/14/crowded-bars-seen-across-wisconsin-after-safer-at-home-extension-struck-down/

[RyanDe680]

Meanwhile in IL, no idea as to what any of the data means:

https://patch.com/illinois/chicago/should-we-believe-gov-pritzkers-coronavirus-testing-statistics

This was telling:

"On May 12, for example, according to Chicago's data, about 31 percent of about 102,000 individuals tested positive for COVID-19. The state's data for the same day shows about 23 percent of more than 140,000 testing encounters in Chicago were positive."

[Hoosier]

Indiana is doing antibody sampling, similar to what New York and some other areas have done.

Preliminary results:  2.8% of the state's population, or 186,000 people, have or had the virus as of May 1.  The confirmed number of cases as of May 1 suggests that only about 1 in 11 infections were being identified.  

The state's fatality rate comes out to 0.58%, which is in the general ballpark of what other similar antibody testing has suggested elsewhere.  About 45% of infected individuals never had symptoms.

The good news in all of this is that the spread was slowed dramatically by the measures that were taken, as our antibody results are well below what was observed in New York.  The bad news is that we have a long way to go, assuming it is true that about 97% of the state's population has not been exposed.  And I suspect the truly rural states (Indiana is not Wyoming) have had even less exposure.

https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/study-estimates-186000-hoosiers-had-covid-19-or-antibodies-by-may/

[madwx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Indiana is doing antibody sampling, similar to what New York and some other areas have done.

Preliminary results:  2.8% of the state's population, or 186,000 people, have or had the virus as of May 1.  The confirmed number of cases as of May 1 suggests that only about 1 in 11 infections were being identified.  

The state's fatality rate comes out to 0.58%, which is in the general ballpark of what other similar antibody testing has suggested elsewhere.  About 45% of infected individuals never had symptoms.

The good news in all of this is that the spread was slowed dramatically by the measures that were taken, as our antibody results are well below what was observed in New York.  The bad news is that we have a long way to go, assuming it is true that about 97% of the state's population has not been exposed.  And I suspect the truly rural states (Indiana is not Wyoming) have had even less exposure.

https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/study-estimates-186000-hoosiers-had-covid-19-or-antibodies-by-may/

Yeah, I've been doing calculations of how much of each state has been infected based on the fatalities and an assumed fatality rate of 0.7% and I have about 3.5% of people in Indiana infected right now which seems to match that data.  Based on that only 4 states have had more than 10% of the population infected, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.  And 15 states have had less than 1% of people infected.

[RyanDe680]

I wish IL would ramp up the antibody testing.  I went for one, and it came back negative, but I wish more people would voluntarily go or have their physicians suggest such.  

[Hoosier]

So based on those numbers above and where the death toll stood on May 1, here is what a near worst case scenario for Indiana could look like.  I say near because it assumes basically everything goes wrong on the treatment/vaccine front but does NOT assume the hospitals get overloaded at any point, resulting in excess mortality rates. 

Let's say 70% of the state gets infected before an effective vaccine or a really good therapeutic that knocks down the death rate in a major way.  That could result in nearly 30,000 deaths, unless the high risk population can be protected a lot better than they have been up to this point.  Let's hope it doesn't get to that point.  There is a lot of work being done on the treatment and vaccine front, so have to be cautiously optimistic that something will come along.

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So based on those numbers above and where the death toll stood on May 1, here is what a near worst case scenario for Indiana could look like.  I say near because it assumes basically everything goes wrong on the treatment/vaccine front but does NOT assume the hospitals get overloaded at any point, resulting in excess mortality rates. 

Let's say 70% of the state gets infected before an effective vaccine or a really good therapeutic that knocks down the death rate in a major way.  That could result in nearly 30,000 deaths, unless the high risk population can be protected a lot better than they have been up to this point.  Let's hope it doesn't get to that point.  There is a lot of work being done on the treatment and vaccine front, so have to be cautiously optimistic that something will come along.

I was going to post the results of that Fairbanks study this morning, but have been busy dealing with it at work today. The study involved picking over 4,500 people around the state at random for testing. Of the 2.8%, 1.7% tested positive and 1.1% were positive for antibodies. Based on the study results of 45% being asymptomatic, there could have been up to 83,700 people in Indiana shedding at any one point. That doesn't sound too bad until you factor in people who refuse to wear masks, say it's not their problem, etc.  As you said though, the major goal is getting the high risk people protected.