Coronavirus

[WestMichigan]

On 4/30/2020 at 4:52 PM, Stebo said:

Do you have some sourcing on those numbers?

https://www.christianpost.com/voices/suicide-hotline-sees-8000-increase-due-to-covid-19.html

https://abc7.com/suicide-hotline-calls-coronavirus-covid19-los-angeles/6117099/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/mental-health/494170-how-does-the-coronavirus-pandemic-affect-suicide

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-pandemic-creates-suicide-risk-this-could-last-years/ar-BB13kSOE

There are varying numbers in these articles but all showing a large increase.

[Hoosier]

IHME model updated with a big increase in projected deaths.  Not surprising because it has been obvious now for a while that we are going to blow past the old number.

As more and more states start to reopen, our behavior is going to determine a lot.  I think this will be the main driving factor in terms of cases.  Spending more time outside helps by all indications, but not if you have a large chunk of society going back to living like we were months ago.  But I don't think we will be living like we were months ago, at least not many of us.  Masks will probably remain relatively commonplace and many people will tend to avoid areas they perceive as higher risk. 

[Hoosier]

Shot for telling someone to wear a mask.   

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/a-security-guard-was-fatally-shot-for-enforcing-the-michigan-mask-policy-prosecutor-says/ar-BB13A6Ym?ocid=spartanntp

[sokolow]

11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

He may be an idiot but on this his stance is shared by many who understand how the human immune system functions. Those compromised, or too scared should remain in their bubbles. Everyone else that can should be back to business. Strengthening one's immune defense against disease is another side of the coin getting very little air time. Just like the rest of western medicine..we wait for a pill from big pharma. 

We could do like Konstantin Chumakov suggests and see if we can induce broad spectrum, nonspecific partial immune protection by exposing the entire population to live attenuated poliovirus through the good old Sabin vaccine. It worked in the USSR, apparently. I’d be for it but I reckon that a fair whack of the aforementioned immunology cognoscenti that are advocates of strengthening one’s immune system would sh!t bricks

[sokolow]

It’s pretty safe and its cheap and you can make it real fast!

[Jonger]

On 5/3/2020 at 8:52 PM, ovweather said:

373 employees at Triumph Foods (pork processing) in Missouri have tested positive but none are exhibiting any symptoms. You would think at least a few would be exhibiting some symptoms, no? The million dollar question continues to be just how many people in the US and worldwide have already been exposed to Covid and would have tested positive at some point over the past few months despite being asymptomatic? There's some serious holes in the data that need to be filled in order to truly understand the extent of the virus. Again, if testing was more readily available, in other words if every single person could get tested or get an accurate antibody test, only then can we fill these holes and not guess or rely on computer models.

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

[wisconsinwx]

5 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

We don't even try to social distance from the regular flu though.  I agree it's overhyped a bit, but your second sentence is just not true.

[IWXwx]

14 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

Personally speaking, it wasn't overhyped. I've had one friend die from it, although he had other high-risk health issues. I also have two other friends who have it. One was in the hospital for two weeks and the other is still in the hospital and has been there for four weeks. Both of these individuals were healthy and are middle-aged. There were times when the prognosis was grim for both and I thought I was going to lose three friends from it. I completely agree with the State of Indiana's response. I work in Emergency Management and we (along with the Health Dept.) head up the local response and PPE acquisitions. I continue to tell people that proclaim it is an overreaction because the numbers haven't hit computer model projections, "You're welcome." Because if nothing had been done, it would have been ugly, especially for the high-risk groups.

[Guest ovweather]

12 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, ovweather said:

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

The best data we have does point to it being more contagious and more deadly than the flu, but the exact rates are definitely up for debate.  We are not talking 50 or 100 times more deadly, but even a 0.5% IFR (which is a reasonable stab at it at this point) would make it multiple times more deadly than the flu.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

34k people died from the flu last year, nearly 70k from this in 9 weeks with nearly 3k a day at this point. Even the worst year in the last 10, 2 years ago had 61k cases.

You can't be any more wrong.

[Hoosier]

A small look at day 1 of reopening in Indiana

https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/south-bend-area-stores-reopen-and-customers-line-up-after-coronavirus-restrictions-lifted/article_1972ed10-8e2e-11ea-bd76-9b1e84f1ec73.amp.html

[Stebo]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A small look at day 1 of reopening in Indiana

https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/south-bend-area-stores-reopen-and-customers-line-up-after-coronavirus-restrictions-lifted/article_1972ed10-8e2e-11ea-bd76-9b1e84f1ec73.amp.html

We're doomed.

[Hoosier]

This is kinda interesting.  Scientists at UW sequenced the virus and found distinctions between the virus circulating in Milwaukee and the virus circulating in Madison with limited mixing... so far.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/05/04/genetics-support-wisconsin-stay-home-order-find-coronavirus-clusters/3078539001/

[Snownado]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

34k people died from the flu last year, nearly 70k from this in 9 weeks with nearly 3k a day at this point. Even the worst year in the last 10, 2 years ago had 61k cases.

You can't be any more wrong.

Lets keep some perspective here. There were about 330 million people in the US before this started, and there are still about 330 million people. Roughly 0.02% of the population has died.

[Hoosier]

JB Pritzker apparently not a fan of Indiana reopening

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/id-rather-be-from-here-than-there-pritzker-on-indiana-reopening/2266349/

[Stebo]

37 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Lets keep some perspective here. There were about 330 million people in the US before this started, and there are still about 330 million people. Roughly 0.02% of the population has died.

Yeah that's a good way to marginalize the 70k number as being insignificant. I see that happen universally by people who see this as no big deal. "Yeah but it's only 0.02% of people." Let's put it this way 70k people is over double my city dead in 9 weeks. Sounds a bit different when you put it in that perspective instead of turning it into a marginalized stat. Oh and this is with preventative measures on place too so realize how much worse it would be without them.

[Malacka11]

I wonder exactly what percentage of the people who have lost family members to this illness hold the opinion that 0.02% isn't a high enough death toll to warrant our current preventative measures. 

[totsata]

4 hours ago, ovweather said:

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

Good post!

Still a lot of uncertainty/questions surrounding the virus, which I am not sure we will ever know the answers to. In my opinion, a vaccine might cause more harm than good, since I think the virus will continue to mutate making it very difficult to protect against. Especially if they make the vaccine mandatory for all. It may be more effective to be more careful than many have been with hygiene and instead ensure that our immune system is as strong as we can maintain it. 

I think there is some validity to Jonger's post. We don't know if all of the reported covid deaths are because they tested positive for the virus irrespective of severity of other underlying conditions or deaths purely due to covid. We don't know if the same treatment is applied for annual flu-related deaths as is for covid. I am always cautious with sensitive data which can easily be "tweaked" to tell a slightly different story. Just my way of interpreting his post. 

Not downplaying this virus by any means, and I really feel for anyone that has been impacted by it. Unfortunately, in my opinion the ultimate goal was to bring the economy (US and most of the world) down irrespective of how many innocent lives are lost in the process.

[sokolow]

I think healthcare professionals in Italy would be ‘surprised’ by the suggestion that 150 physician deaths in three months from a novel infectious disease is comparable to the flu.

I don’t know, maybe given the much higher all-cause mortality and significantly lower lifespans for police and firefighters as an occupation generally, perhaps it is normal for thirty new york cops to die from flu in eight weeks.

[madwx]

This will be inherently more deadly than the flu because no one has any prior immunity from previous exposure or a vaccine like millions upon millions do every flu season, this is a fact that cannot be denied or argued.

[madwx]

also disappointed but not shocked by the anti vaccination thoughts here.  it doesn't make your immune system weaker, it's provoking the exact same response in your body as if you actually got the disease, that's why it's effective.  Though maybe you are right and we should go back to having 15 million deaths a year due to smallpox and 500,000 deaths from polio each year.   There's a reason life expectancy has gone up so much in the past 100 years and its not because we're eating more cheeseburgers.

[WestMichigan]

7 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I wonder exactly what percentage of the people who have lost family members to this illness hold the opinion that 0.02% isn't a high enough death toll to warrant our current preventative measures. 

I am not minimizing your point but as others have already said why not ban alcohol because of the drunk driving deaths?  Why not drive 55 because it will save lives?  Why not stop construction because of accidents on site that lead to death?  Why not ban nearly all fatty/sugary/salty/cholesterol laden food?  Why not ...?  You can say this about every death that has some cause that is preventable by altering our actions?  But would you want to live in that society?  This is the current hot topic but we don't say this about every other thing in our society that causes a preventable death.  Just offering a counter point to what you say.  The deaths are horrible don't get me wrong and come back with a reply saying that.

[RobertSul]

54 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I am not minimizing your point but as others have already said why not ban alcohol because of the drunk driving deaths?  Why not drive 55 because it will save lives?  Why not stop construction because of accidents on site that lead to death?  Why not ban nearly all fatty/sugary/salty/cholesterol laden food?  Why not ...?  You can say this about every death that has some cause that is preventable by altering our actions?  But would you want to live in that society?  This is the current hot topic but we don't say this about every other thing in our society that causes a preventable death.  Just offering a counter point to what you say.  The deaths are horrible don't get me wrong and come back with a reply saying that.

If someone drunk driving on the roads led to three other drunk drivers on the roads, and each of those led to another 1-3 drunk drivers on the road and so on, then you’d have a point.

Likewise, if COVID-19 was not contagious and was regulated to isolated incidents like in your examples, then we certainly wouldn’t have gone through all this trouble.

[RogueWaves]

11 hours ago, Stebo said:

34k people died from the flu last year, nearly 70k from this in 9 weeks with nearly 3k a day at this point. Even the worst year in the last 10, 2 years ago had 61k cases.

You can't be any more wrong.

Nor can you. CDC wasn't issuing pre-printed death cert's and encouraging the medical community to list every death of Peeps with "flu-like symptoms" as having died due to the flu. But with C-19 this is exactly one reason death rates seem much worse. Even heard of a case in the UK where a young man died in an accident on his motorcycle but testing positive for C-19 was listed as cause of death. Fam is furious since that death certificate allows no legal avenue to go after the other vehicle operator for compensation/damages. This entire thing was bungled from the word "go". We have a ton of lessons to learn from this event. Some of us who aren't sitting on "essential" govt jobs, don't even know when we will be able to work and support our households again. It's crap with a capital "C"!!

[nwohweather]

19 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

If someone drunk driving on the roads led to three other drunk drivers on the roads, and each of those led to another 1-3 drunk drivers on the road and so on, then you’d have a point.

Likewise, if COVID-19 was not contagious and was regulated to isolated incidents like in your examples, then we certainly wouldn’t have gone through all this trouble.

Well I think the whole issue is a lack of balance. So many of these governors look stupid in my opinion (looking at you Michigan) because THEY'VE ALLOWED FACTORIES TO REMAIN OPEN. I'm sorry but that's the biggest crux of the issue, you are unable to go to your cottage or even buy certain things at the store in some states, but can go work 8-10 hours in a factory with hundreds of people indoors.

I think we had to buy ourselves time, and we did that while saving hospital capacity. But holy smokes you're limiting peoples incomes in this instance as well as the economy's ability to produce and sell goods. Those are two very bad things

[Jonger]

 

8 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I wonder exactly what percentage of the people who have lost family members to this illness hold the opinion that 0.02% isn't a high enough death toll to warrant our current preventative measures. 

You could say the same thing with the flu... if any number of deaths are unacceptable, we should shut everything down from November through July annually.

I mean -- tell that to the tens of thousands of people who lose loved ones to the flu. 

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

I am not minimizing your point but as others have already said why not ban alcohol because of the drunk driving deaths?  Why not drive 55 because it will save lives?  Why not stop construction because of accidents on site that lead to death?  Why not ban nearly all fatty/sugary/salty/cholesterol laden food?  Why not ...?  You can say this about every death that has some cause that is preventable by altering our actions?  But would you want to live in that society?  This is the current hot topic but we don't say this about every other thing in our society that causes a preventable death.  Just offering a counter point to what you say.  The deaths are horrible don't get me wrong and come back with a reply saying that.

Exactly, you could play this game with anything. It's a sham argument.

[RobertSul]

17 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Well I think the whole issue is a lack of balance. So many of these governors look stupid in my opinion (looking at you Michigan) because THEY'VE ALLOWED FACTORIES TO REMAIN OPEN. I'm sorry but that's the biggest crux of the issue, you are unable to go to your cottage or even buy certain things at the store in some states, but can go work 8-10 hours in a factory with hundreds of people indoors.

I think we had to buy ourselves time, and we did that while saving hospital capacity. But holy smokes you're limiting peoples incomes in this instance as well as the economy's ability to produce and sell goods. Those are two very bad things

What Michigan factories were allowed to stay open? 

[Jonger]

11 hours ago, Stebo said:

We're doomed.

Did you suddenly become 80+ years old with underlying medical conditions? Most people don't even show symptoms when infected.

My grandmother could have been taken out by a light breeze when she was in her final year of her life. Had COVID-19 been around, she most likely would have been a victim.

She died anyhow.