Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I don't buy that for a second.  There is no way outside a breeze is going to blow those germs right into someone, haha I refuse to believe that

It's not that hard to believe, imo.  Think about a sprinkler system on a windy day.  You can start to feel some of the spray at a considerable number of feet away.

Not saying it would be a common way of catching covid-19, but possible if the circumstances are just right.  

[RobertSul]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's not that hard to believe, imo.  Think about a sprinkler system on a windy day.  You can start to feel some of the spray at a considerable number of feet away.

Not saying it would be a common way of catching covid-19, but possible if the circumstances are just right.  

A violent sneeze can travel at 100mph, and the virus can be transmitted through sneezing, so it wouldn’t be hard to imagine that particles can drift along a moderate breeze given that the protective aerosol remains intact.

There’s also impact load to consider - the more concentrated the particles, the worse  the potential outcome as your body might not have as much time to ramp up its immunological defenses against ‘x’ copies, before any multiplication occurs in the new host. I’d think a breeze would diffuse the particles so it also wouldn’t be quite as heavily concentrated?

Edit: I am not a doctor, let alone a virologist or microbiologist, and for all I know there might be an element of micro-shear in the wind that is likely to tear up an aerosol bubble. There are probably other factors I’m overlooking, but this is my best attempt at an educated opinion. 

 

[Jackstraw]

Well the only way we're going to get testing is the same way states had to get supplies, the feds either dish out what tax dollars already bought, or sieze what states purchased with their own money, then dish the stuff out to private middle men under the auspice that they are the best supply chain we have and those grifters  basically ebay it all at a huge profit because it's legal to price gouge our tax dollars via the government but not our wallets in this country.  This is the most disgusting raping of this country I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot of rapes of the tax  base by these fat cats.  I am disgusted period.  Anyone who thinks this shit's ok can just go screw themselves.

 

[RobertSul]

48 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Well the only way we're going to get testing is the same way states had to get supplies, the feds either dish out what tax dollars already bought, or sieze what states purchased with their own money, then dish the stuff out to private middle men under the auspice that they are the best supply chain we have and those grifters  basically ebay it all at a huge profit because it's legal to price gouge our tax dollars via the government but not our wallets in this country.  This is the most disgusting raping of this country I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot of rapes of the tax  base by these fat cats.  I am disgusted period.  Anyone who thinks this shit's ok can just go screw themselves.

 

I’d hope all that medical equipment would have serial numbers that can be tracked throughout the process. 

[sokolow]

 

[Cary67]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

Actually would have thought better ventilation and dispersion of the virus. Studies of virus done in laboratory conditions would seem to be optimal conditions for spread. But again more questions than answers

[sokolow]

I don’t think there’s really any hard answers that I’ve heard, and I gather that the question is still an active topic of investigation for the flu. Podcast I was listening to points out its winter-summer seasonal in temperate latitudes, and appears to tend towards rainy / dry seasonal in tropical latitudes, although both types of climate regions experience flu epidemics, and at least in the places where they’d looked, the tropics may experience the same rates of infection. It may be related to there being a sweet spot for transmission as far as temp & humidity goes; they were also saying of course it may simply have a lot to do with how much time people tend to spend indoors and in close proximity to one another

With the ‘rona I think the word is no-one really knows how different transmission dynamics are to the flu.  The major spreading events that have been documented & studied were looked at by researchers in China, and they found that virtually all of the transmission cases they tracked were indoors but there were a bunch of caveats, namely its a shared environment right? And before indoor/outdoor come definitively into play you have to consider proximity, density of people, and time. IIRC it was pointed out that the study was done in a polity with strict stay-at-home and social distancing measures, so it doesnt rule out that the big factor might be, basically, crowding

[sokolow]

Here’s the study from China that was floating around

“Our study does not rule out outdoor transmission of the virus. However, among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions, only one outdoor outbreak involving two cases occurred in a village in Shangqiu, Henan. A 27-year-old man had a conversation outdoors with an individual who had returned from Wuhan on 25 January and had the onset of symptoms on 1 February.”

I didn’t see that they characterized the details of the conversation in terms of proximity, weather, shared touch of each other or objects/surfaces

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf

medxriv preprint, Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Qian, et. al

They give details of four representative indoor events: supermarket, family affair, mall, and i forget, but the family gathering caught my eye: 19 present, 11 infections [!]

“Nineteen members of three families, including two relatives from Guangdong, who attended a hotpot family gathering at Lento Party Room on 26 January. Eleven were infected; the first case showed symptoms on 30 January. The venue has a hotpot area, BBQ space, mahjong table, ping pong table, pool table, and karaoke.“

Which is striking because as IL found out with the family gathering transmission event that got analyzed, going around and saying hi to everyone is a great way to blow up a bunch of infections

...

And the popsci article roundups were flogging this, which has a great line in the intro and cool imaging of our gross human aerosol sprays

“The use of a tissue (in this case, 4-ply, opened and ready in the hand) proved to be surprisingly effective, though the effectiveness of this depends on the tissue remaining intact and not ripping apart”

which IMO is a lovely line because of how viscerally you can imagine the sensation of letting loose a nasty blast, both barrels mouth and nose, and blowing a BRAWNY BRAND paper towel right the f apart and then you got a handful of sneeze, snot, and shredded paper towel in your hand

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0021392

Qualitative Real-Time Schlieren and Shadowgraph Imaging of Human Exhaled Airflows: An Aid to Aerosol Infection Control by Tang and company

bonus pic “For some experiments, two subjects may face each other across the mirror in order to visualize how their exhaled airflows interact during, e.g. during normal conversation”

i think the takeaway whichever mag WIRED? OutsideOnline? had on the outdoors activity thing and the slipstream thing was “probably the risk of biking or running near someone is overstated but don’t hang out upwind or downwind of people”

edit yup it was WIRED

https://www.wired.com/story/are-running-or-cycling-actually-risks-for-spreading-covid-19/

[Hoosier]

More than 1800 inmates at Marion Correctional in Ohio have tested positive

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

[Hoosier]

Iowa is sort of a quiet sleeper.  Things have been picking up there.  I think they are one of the few states without an official stay at home order.

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

More than 1800 inmates at Marion Correctional in Ohio have tested positive

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

I heard about this. That is absolutely terrifying

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I heard about this. That is absolutely terrifying

Yeah, prisons are one of the highest risk places one can be.  Good thing is that the article says some of the cases are asymptomatic but they didn't give a number.

[nwohweather]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah, prisons are one of the highest risk places one can be.  Good thing is that the article says some of the cases are asymptomatic but they didn't give a number.

That's what sucks about this. It is so frickin contagious things like schools, sports, restaurants, bars and concerts are basically dead until we have this stomped out. Truly terrifying in both its death toll and economic impact, we're basically going to kill the entire restaurant industry

[Hoosier]

Has anyone been able to find hand sanitizer?  I seriously think I'd have a much better shot at striking oil in my backyard right now. 

[Hoosier]

Track the reproductive rate in your state:

https://rt.live

[madwx]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Has anyone been able to find hand sanitizer?  I seriously think I'd have a much better shot at striking oil in my backyard right now. 

bought 2 bottles on February 23.  Probably the best purchase i made this year

[Guest ovweather]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, prisons are one of the highest risk places one can be.  Good thing is that the article says some of the cases are asymptomatic but they didn't give a number.

I'd be willing to bet many of them are asymptomatic. Only one death and that was a corrections officer. And why have 637 not tested positive? What are they doing right, or is this illustrative that there is a possible deeper genetic component to the virus than we know? In other words, maybe some people are genetically immune to the virus?

I was just reading an article the other day about another prison that had 350 inmates and about 150 of them tested positive. But, every single one of the positive cases were asymptomatic. That's incredible, and in my opinion probably illustrates that many, many, many more people around the world have been exposed to the virus, yet have had no symptoms. Again, it's too bad that testing has been so inadequate because the real number of positive cases around the world would probably be amazing, especially if the virus is as contagious as believed.

[Snownado]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

That's what sucks about this. It is so frickin contagious things like schools, sports, restaurants, bars and concerts are basically dead until we have this stomped out. Truly terrifying in both its death toll and economic impact, we're basically going to kill the entire restaurant industry

It's contagious but most people don't even get any symptoms. So im not sure what the panic is. The death rate is most likely well under 1%. I say open everything up and lets get back to living life again. And since outdoor activities is not very dangerous due to the virus not liking sunlight, im hoping baseball will start back in the next month or so.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, ovweather said:

I'd be willing to bet many of them are asymptomatic. Only one death and that was a corrections officer. And why have 637 not tested positive? What are they doing right, or is this illustrative that there is a possible deeper genetic component to the virus than we know? In other words, maybe some people are genetically immune to the virus?

I was just reading an article the other day about another prison that had 350 inmates and about 150 of them tested positive. But, every single one of the positive cases were asymptomatic. That's incredible, and in my opinion probably illustrates that many, many, many more people around the world have been exposed to the virus, yet have had no symptoms. Again, it's too bad that testing has been so inadequate because the real number of positive cases around the world would probably be amazing, especially if the virus is as contagious as believed.

Definitely think it's worth looking more into genetics or other things like blood type.  I know there has been some info to suggest that type A blood may be more susceptible than type O.  Not that having a particular blood type automatically makes you safe.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Snownado said:

It's contagious but most people don't even get any symptoms. So im not sure what the panic is. The death rate is most likely well under 1%. I say open everything up and lets get back to living life again. And since outdoor activities is not very dangerous due to the virus not liking sunlight, im hoping baseball will start back in the next month or so.

The panic is in part because of how contagious it is.  And for argument sake, let's say the death rate is exactly like the flu.  That would still be a problem to let it go unchecked with no restrictions/social distancing because the raw numbers would just get out of control.

I'm itching for sports to return, especially baseball.  But I think it would have to be done in empty stadiums or at least greatly reduced capacity in the stands.  Packing in a ton of people next to each other is just asking for trouble.  

[Snownado]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The panic is in part because of how contagious it is.  And for argument sake, let's say the death rate is exactly like the flu.  That would still be a problem to let it go unchecked with no restrictions/social distancing because the raw numbers would just get out of control.

I'm itching for sports to return, especially baseball.  But I think it would have to be done in empty stadiums or at least greatly reduced capacity in the stands.  Packing in a ton of people next to each other is just asking for trouble.  

I see nothing wrong with having people in the stadiums but trying to distance them so there's several seats in between. Its better than having completely empty stadiums.

[madwx]

30 minutes ago, Snownado said:

It's contagious but most people don't even get any symptoms. So im not sure what the panic is. The death rate is most likely well under 1%. I say open everything up and lets get back to living life again. And since outdoor activities is not very dangerous due to the virus not liking sunlight, im hoping baseball will start back in the next month or so.

its not the number of deaths that's the scary part its how easily it could overwhelm the hospital system, its why we are doing this. 

[Malacka11]

17 minutes ago, madwx said:

its not the number of deaths that's the scary part its how easily it could overwhelm the hospital system, its why we are doing this. 

Right. That fatality rate would be a lot higher if we can't care for everyone that we need to. 

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Right. That fatality rate would be a lot higher if we can't care for everyone that we need to. 

Yep that is why we can't open everything up. The hospitals are near capacity right now and would be inundated if things just opened right back up.

[RyanDe680]

Sort of a dumb question I guess.  Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation?  Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people?  What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article?  I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

[RyanDe680]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Track the reproductive rate in your state:

https://rt.live

This is great, thanks.  Great way to see progress.

[Snownado]

According to the model im looking at, it looks like deaths will stop almost completely in 2 or 3 weeks ? It looks like a huge decline in deaths almost every day from now until mid May.

[Hoosier]

39 minutes ago, Snownado said:

According to the model im looking at, it looks like deaths will stop almost completely in 2 or 3 weeks ? It looks like a huge decline in deaths almost every day from now until mid May.

It has been having problems modeling the backside of the curve in other countries (too quick to bring deaths down).  The overall trend should gradually be down though, at least until we open things up.  Then all bets are off. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RyanDe680 said:

Sort of a dumb question I guess.  Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation?  Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people?  What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article?  I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

The IL stay at home hasn't been going quite that long.  Besides that, our lockdown hasn't been as strict as what some other countries have done.  Also spread among family members who live together is one of the things that is harder to stop. 

[Jackstraw]

12 hours ago, sokolow said:

I don’t think there’s really any hard answers that I’ve heard, and I gather that the question is still an active topic of investigation for the flu. Podcast I was listening to points out its winter-summer seasonal in temperate latitudes, and appears to tend towards rainy / dry seasonal in tropical latitudes, although both types of climate regions experience flu epidemics, and at least in the places where they’d looked, the tropics may experience the same rates of infection. It may be related to there being a sweet spot for transmission as far as temp & humidity goes; they were also saying of course it may simply have a lot to do with how much time people tend to spend indoors and in close proximity to one another

With the ‘rona I think the word is no-one really knows how different transmission dynamics are to the flu.  The major spreading events that have been documented & studied were looked at by researchers in China, and they found that virtually all of the transmission cases they tracked were indoors but there were a bunch of caveats, namely its a shared environment right? And before indoor/outdoor come definitively into play you have to consider proximity, density of people, and time. IIRC it was pointed out that the study was done in a polity with strict stay-at-home and social distancing measures, so it doesnt rule out that the big factor might be, basically, crowding

I read that study also.  Even though it's not "conclusive"  there's a lot of plain old common sense in it.  It's pretty much coming out the length of time to exposure is exponentially related to the chance of someone who would not "normally" have severe complications as apposed if they contracted the virus by simply shaking hands with someone, to becoming severely ill.  The replication rate of this virus internally isn't extreme compared to others (Ebola doubles every 20 minutes).  But if you are consistently exposed hour by hour, day by day for a couple days the "number" of viruses that infiltrate over time overwhelm even  younger and/or healthy peoples immune system and can cause an immune inflammatory response requiring hospitalization.  It's being studied this is why folks on these cruise ships had such an adverse reaction to the virus with severe infections up to 5 times a town of similar size. This may be why there was a higher rate of severe infections in densely populated areas initially.  That church in Sacramento had a disproportionately large number of severe infections and deaths compared to people who may have been infected yet less exposed consistently.  It's probably why we've seen stories of young healthy hospital workers succumbing, the hi rates of police and other first responders succumbing.  These people that are higher than most to be in contact initially, they are higher than most to be in contact over and over again.  They are running much higher rates of being severely infected regardless of demographic.

  I really think there is a "dose" factor here simply because of the long incubation time.  Which once again brings us back to what?  TESTING TESTING.