Coronavirus

[snowstormcanuck]

2nd death reported here in Ontario, and 43 new cases, which is the largest daily increase thus far.  The 2nd person who died apparently contracted the virus via community transmission.

 

[nwohweather]

In what ways is our infrastructure and medical system not prepared? Or maybe, I should ask what other things  do you think that should be in place that would have us prepared for an instance like we are currently expecting?

Why would our infrastructure be prepared? Lol there has never been a reason for en masse ventilators and respirators

[Baum]

20 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Why would our infrastructure be prepared? Lol there has never been a reason for en masse ventilators and respirators

Well, I think you misread the question. It was not a statement it was a question. And one that I recieved a very informational video on from another poster. But to you, I would say the threat of a dirty bomb or biological attack via terrorism should very much be on the plate and those products you mentioned needed en masse.  There have also been prior pandemics so this is not a first go around. But in the end, I was really just trying to glean some knowledge. 

[nwohweather]

Missed some of it but sounds like Pritzker is dropping the hammer in IL.

They shouldn’t lock anything down other than cities. People should be able to at least go to work and go home

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

He didn't change/do anything.

That is right.  I got a text from a friend that said that essential stuff was going to remain open, which implied that everything else was going to shut down.  

[Chicago Storm]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is right.  I got a text from a friend that said that essential stuff was going to remain open, which implied that everything else was going to shut down.  

He said the same thing the past few days.

[Hoosier]

Some positive info about a couple meds already in existence that seem to have effectiveness in treating this.

[Hoosier]

^who gave me the hotdog for that post?  

I mean, yeah, we should not be overly optimistic yet (look at the flu... we still have many thousands of deaths/year in this country even with a vaccine and tamiflu, etc) but maybe something can work.

[wisconsinwx]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

^who gave me the hotdog for that post?  

I mean, yeah, we should not be overly optimistic yet (look at the flu... we still have many thousands of deaths/year in this country even with a vaccine and tamiflu, etc) but maybe something can work.

Yeah, anything that can ease the suffering and impact of the virus would be welcome.

[Guest ovweather]

What I find fascinating about this virus is why some test positive and others don't, even when coming into contact with it. For example, the mayor of Louisville has been self-quarantining because he was at a function where someone had tested positive a few weeks ago. The mayor himself has tested negative while his wife has tested positive (but no symptoms). They are self-quarantining together, yet he hasn't contracted the virus. Why? They are both in their 60's. 

Another example is the Utah Jazz. Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both tested positive, but no one else on the team and within the organization has (or at least I believe that's the case).

But on the other hand, you have Italy. Hundreds of deaths each day. But also people in Italy are practically living on top of each other from over population (not too different from NYC), not to mention Italy has a high number of older folks (quite of few who have or are still smokers).

Do some people have a built-in natural immunity to COVID-19 that researchers just don't know anything about yet? Why do some, even people over 60, test positive but never develop symptoms? Maybe this virus has been around in the past, but as a lesser severity, thus some have already built an immunity? I know, questions that cannot be answered right now, but interesting to think about. Nature works in strange ways, that's for sure.

[Chambana]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some positive info about a couple meds already in existence that seem to have effectiveness in treating this.

A malaria drug from the 1940’s is having good results, but what kind of side effects will this bring? And to the people hanging out at the beach in Florida, good job, you just spread the virus more. 

[Hoosier]

44 minutes ago, ovweather said:

What I find fascinating about this virus is why some test positive and others don't, even when coming into contact with it. For example, the mayor of Louisville has been self-quarantining because he was at a function where someone had tested positive a few weeks ago. The mayor himself has tested negative while his wife has tested positive (but no symptoms). They are self-quarantining together, yet he hasn't contracted the virus. Why? They are both in their 60's. 

Another example is the Utah Jazz. Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both tested positive, but no one else on the team and within the organization has (or at least I believe that's the case).

But on the other hand, you have Italy. Hundreds of deaths each day. But also people in Italy are practically living on top of each other from over population (not too different from NYC), not to mention Italy has a high number of older folks (quite of few who have or are still smokers).

Do some people have a built-in natural immunity to COVID-19 that researchers just don't know anything about yet? Why do some, even people over 60, test positive but never develop symptoms? Maybe this virus has been around in the past, but as a lesser severity, thus some have already built an immunity? I know, questions that cannot be answered right now, but interesting to think about. Nature works in strange ways, that's for sure.

For all that has been learned so far, still more to learn.  The thing about those with type A blood type perhaps being more at risk of contracting it than type O is interesting.  

I am either type A or O.  Not sure which.  

[weatherbo]

42 minutes ago, Chambana said:

A malaria drug from the 1940’s is having good results, but what kind of side effects will this bring? And to the people hanging out at the beach in Florida, good job, you just spread the virus more. 

Young people will be young.

[Jackstraw]

19 hours ago, Baum said:

In what ways is our infrastructure and medical system not prepared? Or maybe, I should ask what other things  do you think that should be in place that would have us prepared for an instance like we are currently expecting?

  Those are valid questions to my post and I guess one thing I should've clarified was when I said our medical infrastructure and system I was in no means singling out all of the medical professionals from researchers to doctors, nurses or hospitals.  My take on medical infrastructure and medical system runs the gamut from federal to state and local governments to private entities.  It is absolutely ridiculous to rely on one or some of each of those when there is a pathogenic pandemic affecting the entire social spectrum.  Our medical infrastructure was and is woefully unprepared to handle this.   The medical community (not the infrastructure) has been worried about this for over 30 years.  Numerous studies and reports have been presented that we as a country and even as a world society are not prepared for a planet wide pandemic, including the John Hopkins report in 2018 which got shoved under the rug. 

  Since this is mainly a weather board I was just trying to use the way we learned to become proactive instead of reactive to severe weather events to state how we should use that same approach when it comes to biological threats.  I would've thought, especially after 9/11, our medical infrastructure would've been better prepared for a biological threat, be it terrorism or natural.

  My spouse and I have worked in the medical community for over 25 years and I will tell you this is one of the biggest fears from medical professionals I've heard over the years.  This is the same stuff I heard when I lived in hurricane country 30 years ago, the big ones gonna happen and we're not ready, hence my loose analogy that hopefully this is the pathogenic Hugo.  

  One fact I think people don't quite understand.  The population of this planet has nearly doubled in the last 50 years.  Half of that new population lives in densely packed environments.  The odds of a zoonotic virus making its way into the human population have increased 100 fold over the last 50 years.  We've now had a consistent outbreak of these viruses every 7-10 years for the last 40 years.  Luckily, most of them haven't been as contagious as this one from a human to human standpoint.  It's really simple math.  Hindsight's 20-20 sure but my hope is, like the lessons learned from violent weather as populations increase and become more vulnerable, we can move forward with a better understanding of our own arrogance here and take measures to be proactive instead of reactive to something that can affect so many people in such a short period of time.   

[Jackstraw]

If you're staying home whether self induced or just trying to be socially responsible and want to geek out about this here ya go.  It's a worthwhile internet rabbit hole to dive in to.  If you can skim through some of the geek speak you can get a feel of how this came about, the groundhog day "we seen this before", and how far behind the information cycle we're being fed is from fact.  Trust me if you have trouble sleeping like me this stuff is better than counting coronaviruses lol......

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/infectious-disease-topics/covid-19#bibliography&1-7

 

[snowstormcanuck]

"Jane Heffernan, the director of York University’s Centre for Disease Modelling, would not predict how long she believes shutting down schools and working from home could last. But she acknowledged she has seen studies suggesting it could be months to two years, including a study from Imperial College in London that predicts social distancing could continue for 12 to 18 months. "

Humans being social creatures, that worse case scenario seems like it's going to be very hard to do.  And, that's just social distancing; imagine a prolonged period of more severe restrictions, like shelter-in-place/lockdown. 

[Jackstraw]

39 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

"Jane Heffernan, the director of York University’s Centre for Disease Modelling, would not predict how long she believes shutting down schools and working from home could last. But she acknowledged she has seen studies suggesting it could be months to two years, including a study from Imperial College in London that predicts social distancing could continue for 12 to 18 months. "

Humans being social creatures, that worse case scenario seems like it's going to be very hard to do.  And, that's just social distancing; imagine a prolonged period of more severe restrictions, like shelter-in-place/lockdown. 

  Very hard to do?  How about impossible lol

[Baum]

7 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  Those are valid questions to my post and I guess one thing I should've clarified was when I said our medical infrastructure and system I was in no means singling out all of the medical professionals from researchers to doctors, nurses or hospitals.  My take on medical infrastructure and medical system runs the gamut from federal to state and local governments to private entities.  It is absolutely ridiculous to rely on one or some of each of those when there is a pathogenic pandemic affecting the entire social spectrum.  Our medical infrastructure was and is woefully unprepared to handle this.   The medical community (not the infrastructure) has been worried about this for over 30 years.  Numerous studies and reports have been presented that we as a country and even as a world society are not prepared for a planet wide pandemic, including the John Hopkins report in 2018 which got shoved under the rug. 

  Since this is mainly a weather board I was just trying to use the way we learned to become proactive instead of reactive to severe weather events to state how we should use that same approach when it comes to biological threats.  I would've thought, especially after 9/11, our medical infrastructure would've been better prepared for a biological threat, be it terrorism or natural.

  My spouse and I have worked in the medical community for over 25 years and I will tell you this is one of the biggest fears from medical professionals I've heard over the years.  This is the same stuff I heard when I lived in hurricane country 30 years ago, the big ones gonna happen and we're not ready, hence my loose analogy that hopefully this is the pathogenic Hugo.  

  One fact I think people don't quite understand.  The population of this planet has nearly doubled in the last 50 years.  Half of that new population lives in densely packed environments.  The odds of a zoonotic virus making its way into the human population have increased 100 fold over the last 50 years.  We've now had a consistent outbreak of these viruses every 7-10 years for the last 40 years.  Luckily, most of them haven't been as contagious as this one from a human to human standpoint.  It's really simple math.  Hindsight's 20-20 sure but my hope is, like the lessons learned from violent weather as populations increase and become more vulnerable, we can move forward with a better understanding of our own arrogance here and take measures to be proactive instead of reactive to something that can affect so many people in such a short period of time.   

thanks for the feedback.

[NEOH]

Passing along a summary of Goldman Sachs investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in...

The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

[A-L-E-K]

lol^

[King James]

lol^

Major major LOL

Everything is a sale

[NEOH]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol^

Care to elaborate on what's funny? 

[sokolow]

On 3/19/2020 at 2:56 AM, Jackstraw said:

  I don't believe a thing that China reports. 

I think critically aware skepticism is appropriate for dealing with what pretty much any government, corporation, or media outlet is claiming but given that, i don’t get the impression that the UN (say) or science communicators like the TWIV crew think Chinese offcial information or media is full of sh¡t.

[sokolow]

Also speaking of the This Week in Virology podcast

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-592/

 

Lots of great stuff there

[wisconsinwx]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Passing along a summary of Goldman Sachs investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in...

The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

That sounds like the most balanced take on it.  Hopefully he's right about the decline after the next eight weeks.

[hawkeye_wx]

Obviously, we won't know how all of this will play out until it does, but my biggest fear continues to be the economic devastation we are inflicting on the country.  If this goes on for more than a few weeks, it could get very bad.

[hawkeye_wx]

We should be getting a lot more data for this country over the next couple weeks(positive/negative tests, fatalities, etc).  If we start getting more data that suggests the death rate is similar to the flu, or even a bit higher, there will be immense pressure to start sending people back to work.

[A-L-E-K]

imagine being this thick still^

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We should be getting a lot more data for this country over the next couple weeks(positive/negative tests, fatalities, etc).  If we start getting more data that suggests the death rate is similar to the flu, or even a bit higher, there will be immense pressure to start sending people back to work.

The testing has to get A LOT better so we can track it better and just have better data.  Sure, it is not quite as limited as a few weeks ago, but there are still a lot of stories about symptomatic people who can't get tested.  As an example, there have been less than 600 people tested in the entire state of Indiana.  That has got to change fast.

[NEOH]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

imagine being this thick still^

Instead of insulting others... why don't you add some value and post your thoughts.