pawatch Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 16 hours ago, paweather said: Any feedback on how anyone thinks the flooding will be around the area. Severe? Creeks and streams for sure I suspect. River is going to be high, but unless things stall out, things should be ok. predicting 1.5 -3" of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Hope some of you western guys start posting obs reports. I'll be living through your eyes for the first part of the day until that precip shield makes it east of the Susquehanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Hope some of you western guys start posting obs reports. I'll be living through your eyes for the first part of the day until that precip shield makes it east of the Susquehanna. Has not been too bad here. I suspect the heaviest is already past us and we are in for a stratiform rain until afternoon. Its warm at 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 59 with around .60” so far. Mod Rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Looping the IR satellite, you can see the cloud tops cooling and back building to the west with a fire hose of moisture heading right for us. I wouldn’t write this event off yet. Maybe someone can post it cough cough @MAG5035 or someone more techy than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Looping the IR satellite, you can see the cloud tops cooling and back building to the west with a fire hose of moisture heading right for us. I wouldn’t write this event off yet. I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here. Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here. Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. The band down from Roanoke to west of Altoona is the one I’m watching for the heaviest round later for us. Guess we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here. Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. How much do you have so far today. I'm at 0.00" as it hasn't started here yet, save for a couple of fat raindrops when I put the dog out this morning around 5:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, Voyager said: How much do you have so far today. I'm at 0.00" as it hasn't started here yet, save for a couple of fat raindrops when I put the dog out this morning around 5:00am. I do not have an expensive setup so my rain gauge is not perfect but between 1/2 and 3/4". Its raining pretty good right now. I think that 1.5-2" range is a cinch at this point for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I do not have an expensive setup so my rain gauge is not perfect but between 1/2 and 3/4". Its raining pretty good right now. I think that 1.5-2" range is a cinch at this point for us. Thanks. Neither do I, but mine is usually pretty close to the USGS automated gauge about a half mile north of my house. Over the next hour (which is as far as it goes) AccuWx's future radar does not move the eastern edge at all and basically stalls it along a line from Bloomsburg to Hegins to Hershey to Spring Grove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 The band I’m in is around .30”/hr rates. I’m over .75” now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Looping the IR satellite, you can see the cloud tops cooling and back building to the west with a fire hose of moisture heading right for us. I wouldn’t write this event off yet. Maybe someone can post it cough cough @MAG5035 or someone more techy than me Seems like the best plume of precip is residing up I-81 to H-burg and then up the river to IPT currently. That's coinciding with main part of the moisture fetch from the Gulf. This will eventually progress east across the rest of the state, where secondary wave slows the frontal passage some and is why eastern PA is under more of a flood threat this afternoon. There's another area of heavier precip in west-central PA as well, which may consolidate some with the other area later on today in eastern PA as the front slows down. I had been thinking this event as a 3-6 hour period of the heavier rain within the overall event.. which is the key to if any flooding ends up occurring. The flood threat is looking more on the minor end with the poor drainage and smaller waterways, although the Main Susquehanna should at least see a pretty significant rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Seems like the best plume of precip is residing up I-81 to H-burg and then up the river to IPT currently. That's coinciding with main part of the moisture fetch from the Gulf. This will eventually progress east across the rest of the state, where secondary wave slows the frontal passage some and is why eastern PA is under more of a flood threat this afternoon. There's another area of heavier precip in west-central PA as well, which may consolidate some with the other area later on today in eastern PA as the front slows down. I had been thinking this event as a 3-6 hour period of the heavier rain within the overall event.. which is the key to if any flooding ends up occurring. The flood threat is looking more on the minor end with the poor drainage and smaller waterways, although the Main Susquehanna should at least see a pretty significant rise. Thanks for the update. Bands are banked right up against the ridge which is expected with that se fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Man, the radar presentation looks very similar to Lee. Obviously not even close to the same magnitude, but the orientation and width of the fire hose is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Man, the radar presentation looks very similar to Lee. Obviously not even close to the same magnitude, but the orientation and width of the fire hose is similar. And location. We got kind of sideswiped by Lee while the Susquehanna basin got dumped on. That same thing happened back in 2018 when Pine Grove kept getting floods. I wonder why, when south to north training events set up, the Susquehanna seems to be the favored location for the fire hose to spray... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 The band is SLOWLY moving east down in VA, but it has actually retreated (contracted most likely) westward north of the M/D on the past few scans. Right now the main band is about 30 miles west of me, and it's not expected to fully reach me for at least another 3 hours. Also, it's 65.4 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 I've been watching the HRRR closely this morning, and it now appears that we don't really get our heaviest rain until after 3:00pm and probably close to supper time. Originally, I was kind of expecting an all day washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, Voyager said: I've been watching the HRRR closely this morning, and it now appears that we don't really get our heaviest rain until after 3:00pm and probably close to supper time. Originally, I was kind of expecting an all day washout. That was part of my opinion from this AM. by 3PM I expect it to be much drier here vs. an all day wash out. Our zones now depict that as well. That bad in VA, that @Cashtown_Coop, mentioned, may be our big hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 That heavier band that just went through here pulled down some nicer air...dropped 4 degrees to 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Winds are howling all of a sudden here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1.30”+ so far rates holding at .30 to .40” / hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Has anyone bought the RadarScope for Microsoft? I recently upgraded to a 27” monitor and bought Radar and I’m impressed. I feel like a NWS met lol. Here’s a pic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 1.30”+ so far rates holding at .30 to .40” / hr We are still around 1" here...rain has stopped for the time being. You look like you really are taking advantage of precip pushing up against the ridges like you mentioned. Radar shows yellows that keep reforming near you. (Not your fancy MS Radar the one I am using!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We are still around 1" here...rain has stopped for the time being. You look like you really are taking advantage of precip pushing up against the ridges like you mentioned. Radar shows yellows that keep reforming near you. (Not your fancy MS Radar the one I am using!). You need to step your game up over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 You can see the orientation of the bands starting to go negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: You need to step your game up over there. I just cannot come to spending money to watch rain. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I just cannot come to spending money to watch rain. LOL. Lol. I’m heading your way in between the bands for a Lowe’s / Walmart run. Wife wants to get out of house. Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I just cannot come to spending money to watch rain. LOL. But if it were snow??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Voyager said: But if it were snow??? That’s when the investment really pays off. Watching the deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Lol. I’m heading your way in between the bands for a Lowe’s / Walmart run. Wife wants to get out of house. Fun times Downtown Rouzerville here you come! I bet it is quite foggy over Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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