Central PA - Spring 2020

[canderson]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

really....

second hand smoke

being hit by another vehicle

suicide caused by societal stresses/work....etc

I can keep going if you'd like me to but i dont want to get into an argument and parse over details.  The problem with your "highly contagious and asymptomatic" statement is that if that IS the case, it would only further skew the argument against your concerns as some "experts" think this may have been here long before the first case was diagnosed, or test was available to classify it.  

To be as blatant as possible, we are doing something that no matter what the real numbers are (and from what we all are hearing - are still highly debatable) to protect a relatively small percentage at the expense of 100% of us....

For many of us, this was NOT the choice we would have taken.  

If you (rhetorically) are scared and wanna stay home....stay home. 

I'm not scared whatsoever....and I'll use my social distancing skills and get back at it.  

Fair but those aren’t exactly the same as catching a virus from someone who doesn’t know they had it. But I know 4 people who dead and that wasn’t their choice either. My 25 year old niece just got off a ventilator.

There is the no easy answer.

Now back to weather - hope the freeze tonight doesn’t hurt much flowering fruit! 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The criticism to your post is none of those are highly contagious and carried by asymptomatic people infected and killing others unknowingly. It’s not a choice if you catch a pandemic.

If this had run its course naturally the economic harm would be far more devastating imo. 

I agree, if we would have went about this business as usual we likely would have ended up in the same stay at home situation anyways with a whole lot more death and overwhelmed hospitals. I think PA has handled this fairly well to this point and we have stayed off the peak in daily cases several days ago and have limited the spread/expansion of the hot spots in the Philly/SE PA, Scranton/WB, and Pittsburgh metro regions of the state.

With that said, I do believe they need to start exploring what "non-essential" sectors they can start opening back up safely more seriously than just talking about it.. which was generally the goal of the legislation that worked through the PA house/senate. PA and MI are two of the bigger states with the highest percentage of UC claims (roughly 20% of the workforce). I think anywhere where one could lessen that tremendous burden on the state UC system by getting some people back to work where it is deemed safe would help with being able to assist other sectors of the workforce that this is going to affect for a good bit longer even with eventual easing of guidelines (travel/restaurants/entertainment/sports/etc). That's also not to mention the small business part of the equation where there still isn't anything in place in terms of UC for self employed individuals.  

It's been harped on for weeks that testing ability is a major key to getting things started back up and countries that implemented aggressive testing for this right off the bat have been ones that have been able to both handle cases/isolating people while keeping at least some functionality. So it's mind boggling to me that we're still at a point this far into this outbreak where in a lot of cases we can only test folks with more serious symptoms and that's it (and sometimes not even then depending on availability) when in the same breath there's evidence that a notable percentage of possible cases could be from asymptomatic carriers. That type of data is extremely vital to those model projections they use to determine where were at in the spread of the virus and what measures are taken. We've tested roughly about 1% of the population in the US, which is certainly not enough of a percentage to really have the big picture without a lot of assumptions. This is a more of a visualization than a direct comparison... but if we're putting this really roughly in weather terms, that would be sort of like trying to figure out the weather pattern in the US plotting out 1% of official weather stations around the country. You might get an overall picture but your going to miss alot of details. 

[Voyager]

19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Guys its just getting hard to sit and watch this happen.  Not for one second do I (nor any that share my feelings) discount the legitimate concerns, but we are allowed to dislike some of what is happening.  That does not mean we don't agree w/ certain aspects. 

If we are all friends, then we need to be able to be honest w/ one another, and as iv'e been here for many years, I consider you all good friends, and yeah, I talk freely.  

Remember gang.....Agreeing w/ people is no prerequisite to friendship.  One can learn the most from those we disagree w/ , as they can open ones eyes to the "other side".  Think about it.  

We are in this together.  If you disagree w/ me, then friggin have at it.  I'm not perfect, but I'm not gonna sit back and sugar coat sh!t.  And that's just what some of this is.  

I care about every one in here....and that's not debatable.  My opinions....well....maybe so.

 

 

I get it. I'd just hate see our forum end up resembling the political forum.

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fair but those aren’t exactly the same as catching a virus from someone who doesn’t know they had it. But I know 4 people who dead and that wasn’t their choice either. My 25 year old niece just got off a ventilator.

There is the an easy answer.

Now back to weather - hope the freeze tonight doesn’t hurt much flowering fruit! 

4 people is surely tragic.  No doubt about it.  Sorry to hear of it and for the losses bud.  Glad you're niece is part of the 20% that got off the ventilator.    

On the other side, I also know of many that don't  know anyone or very few that have been affected.....and I'm in Lancaster...the local "hotspot".  I'm sure you can understand why they feel the way they do....

I personally have heard of of a husband and wife...through a friend of my wife.  He a cardiologist who gave it to his wife.  Both are ok .

While it is undeniable that mitigation and social distancing are effective....we can do that while at work .  THAT is the big rub right now.  My son works  in heavy equipment.  His stance....''noone can get 30-50' from me because of my equipment....and yet i cant work ''.  See my point?   Current solution isnt applicable to everyone.  

 

[Blizzard of 93]

So, I see that my subject change attempt a little earlier didn’t work...

Let me try again...

@MAG5035 ,what are your thoughts on the snow chance tomorrow for the CTP     I-80 crew tomorrow?

[pasnownut]

30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I agree, if we would have went about this business as usual we likely would have ended up in the same stay at home situation anyways with a whole lot more death and overwhelmed hospitals. I think PA has handled this fairly well to this point and we have stayed off the peak in daily cases several days ago and have limited the spread/expansion of the hot spots in the Philly/SE PA, Scranton/WB, and Pittsburgh metro regions of the state.

With that said, I do believe they need to start exploring what "non-essential" sectors they can start opening back up safely more seriously than just talking about it.. which was generally the goal of the legislation that worked through the PA house/senate. PA and MI are two of the bigger states with the highest percentage of UC claims (roughly 20% of the workforce). I think anywhere where one could lessen that tremendous burden on the state UC system by getting some people back to work where it is deemed safe would help with being able to assist other sectors of the workforce that this is going to affect for a good bit longer even with eventual easing of guidelines (travel/restaurants/entertainment/sports/etc). That's also not to mention the small business part of the equation where there still isn't anything in place in terms of UC for self employed individuals.  

It's been harped on for weeks that testing ability is a major key to getting things started back up and countries that implemented aggressive testing for this right off the bat have been ones that have been able to both handle cases/isolating people while keeping at least some functionality. So it's mind boggling to me that we're still at a point this far into this outbreak where in a lot of cases we can only test folks with more serious symptoms and that's it (and sometimes not even then depending on availability) when in the same breath there's evidence that a notable percentage of possible cases could be from asymptomatic carriers. That type of data is extremely vital to those model projections they use to determine where were at in the spread of the virus and what measures are taken. We've tested roughly about 1% of the population in the US, which is certainly not enough of a percentage to really have the big picture without a lot of assumptions. This is a more of a visualization than a direct comparison... but if we're putting this really roughly in weather terms, that would be sort of like trying to figure out the weather pattern in the US plotting out 1% of official weather stations around the country. You might get an overall picture but your going to miss alot of details. 

You always speak so eloquently.  So well stated...especially the testing part.  Can you imagine how many cases have gone "untested"?   THAT is what some of us are wrestling with, and using for any counterargument to how bad it really is".  "My " side says that for what we do  know...there is far more data that we will never know....and that variable likely would have a great skew to the mean.  That said, with CV19....Early mitigation was essential...no doubt.  

[pasnownut]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

So, I see that my subject change attempt a little earlier didn’t work...

Let me try again...

@MAG5035 ,what are your thoughts on the snow chance tomorrow for the CTP     I-80 crew tomorrow?

Sorry pal....if anyone deserves snow....its you. Models have seemed to jump north again (seasonal tendency), but hey....it snowed today....so why not tomorrow?  Man I hope we can be back at it next year.  I miss the good ol' days.

  GFS seemed a tic warmer, but it appears that 80N crew could get a shot at ground whitening w/ rt 6 crew doing best with Allegheny and NC mountains having the winning tix.  Thermal profiles seem to point to areas suggested being most capable of getting late season surprise.  Wish i was headed to cabin.  BTW, my son had 3" up in Tioga last Saturday.  I saw pics.  It was legit. 

 

[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

So, I see that my subject change attempt a little earlier didn’t work...

Let me try again...

@MAG5035 ,what are your thoughts on the snow chance tomorrow for the CTP     I-80 crew tomorrow?

It's looking like the snow swath is going to reside above I-80 in the northern tier counties and up into the NY Southern tier. The low has edged north the last couple days just enough that it's going to take the best precip into central/northern PA and bump up the thermal boundary just enough to make a cold rain for most of us in here. Models are pretty dialed in on the northern tier, where it's probably going to be a pretty solid advisory event. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the high ground even cracks 6". Euro still has more of a dip south in the middle of the state, where UNV or IPT could see some snow esp on the front. I think front end snow in those places would depend on if more WAA broke out ahead but it looks like that would also be targeting the northern tier more. This was really close, if the low would've been able to stay under PA this probably could've snowed on the majority of us. The cold was/is there. 

[Blizzard of 93]

38 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Sorry pal....if anyone deserves snow....its you. Models have seemed to jump north again (seasonal tendency), but hey....it snowed today....so why not tomorrow?  Man I hope we can be back at it next year.  I miss the good ol' days.

  GFS seemed a tic warmer, but it appears that 80N crew could get a shot at ground whitening w/ rt 6 crew doing best with Allegheny and NC mountains having the winning tix.  Thermal profiles seem to point to areas suggested being most capable of getting late season surprise.  Wish i was headed to cabin.  BTW, my son had 3" up in Tioga last Saturday.  I saw pics.  It was legit. 

 

Yes, I think most of us are looking forward to getting back to the good old days in more ways than one with everything going on in the world...

In terms of snow, I think that if next year if we even approach average snow, most of us won’t complain too much. A 30 inch snow season at MDT would seem to be epic after enduring the failure of this current season!

[Blizzard of 93]

32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It's looking like the snow swath is going to reside above I-80 in the northern tier counties and up into the NY Southern tier. The low has edged north the last couple days just enough that it's going to take the best precip into central/northern PA and bump up the thermal boundary just enough to make a cold rain for most of us in here. Models are pretty dialed in on the northern tier, where it's probably going to be a pretty solid advisory event. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the high ground even cracks 6". Euro still has more of a dip south in the middle of the state, where UNV or IPT could see some snow esp on the front. I think front end snow in those places would depend on if more WAA broke out ahead but it looks like that would also be targeting the northern tier more. This was really close, if the low would've been able to stay under PA this probably could've snowed on the majority of us. The cold was/is there. 

Yes, this was close to being a great very late season snow hit for all of CTP. 

The cold air is in place this time. Look at how many of us experienced good snow showers during the last couple of days. If we had some semblance of a decent High to the north or some confluence to force the system even slightly under PA, then all of us could have been in the snow business tomorrow.

[Voyager]

25 degrees here this morning...

[Superstorm]

25F on my thermometer this morning.

-EPO/-NAO and persistent!!


.

[Bubbler86]

Wow, I missed a lot of Covid talk.  My opinion is that we are all friends here and we can discuss if we do not insult.  I thinks its therapeutic, right?   Lots of us have either acknowledged job issues (I have my own, I am looking for something locally but not a good time to be looking) or know friends or family with job or health issues...helps to tell other friends even if just to get it off ones chest.   I realize this is a weather board but this is a pretty crazy situation. 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, I missed a lot of Covid talk.  My opinion is that we are all friends here and we can discuss if we do not insult.  I thinks its therapeutic, right?   Lots of us have either acknowledged job issues (I have my own, I am looking for something locally but not a good time to be looking) or know friends or family with job or health issues...helps to tell other friends even if just to get it off ones chest.   I realize this is a weather board but this is a pretty crazy situation. 

 

 

I agree with this and what some others have said - unfortunately, a lot of the discussion in other subs surrounding Covid-19 gets political pretty quickly, and then the party affiliation bashing begins. I'm so glad that hasn't happened in here. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, Voyager said:

25 degrees here this morning...

 

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

25F on my thermometer this morning.

-EPO/-NAO and persistent!!


.

I briefly considered turning off my AC last evening before I went to bed...very happy that I didn't. It was still a pleasant 60 in my house this morning. :) 

[paweather]

19 hours ago, pasnownut said:

its just an F'd up year man.....

 

It certainly is, and like others say we can discuss the virus in respect of everyone's opinion I have no problem with that, I love this forum great info and people on it. But your right it is a crazy 2020 let's fast forward to December 2020 unless we will get a Halloween Snowstorm again! And I'm still holding out for May Snow! :-))))

Your point is well taken about everyone needs to make their own decisions we did before and we should now. There is going to be a huge rally on Monday in Harrisburg, I hope it doesn't get ugly and it shouldn't but we need to get people back to work that is my opinion. I'm a leader Healthcare IT consulting and our market is devastated right now. Hospitals are laying off because of no elective surgeries and ER's half full based on the state you live in. It is so sad that is even happening. I know some Physician Assistances who got laid off or reduced hours. 

Craziness, we can't live in fear forever and if anyone is scared to go out then stay home. Practice Social Distancing if your out and the right behavior. The best thing this has done for me is watching my Cowboys win the Super Bowl but that was in the 90's :-(((((

 

 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I briefly considered turning off my AC last evening before I went to bed...very happy that I didn't. It was still a pleasant 60 in my house this morning.

I'm still running my heat. Of course it's oil, so it's temperature driven, but I like my house 70 degrees inside, so if it's colder than that, it's going to run...

[2001kx]

Steady light snow..Everything is starting to turn white (33 degrees)

[TheDreamTraveler]

19 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I agree, if we would have went about this business as usual we likely would have ended up in the same stay at home situation anyways with a whole lot more death and overwhelmed hospitals. I think PA has handled this fairly well to this point and we have stayed off the peak in daily cases several days ago and have limited the spread/expansion of the hot spots in the Philly/SE PA, Scranton/WB, and Pittsburgh metro regions of the state.

With that said, I do believe they need to start exploring what "non-essential" sectors they can start opening back up safely more seriously than just talking about it.. which was generally the goal of the legislation that worked through the PA house/senate. PA and MI are two of the bigger states with the highest percentage of UC claims (roughly 20% of the workforce). I think anywhere where one could lessen that tremendous burden on the state UC system by getting some people back to work where it is deemed safe would help with being able to assist other sectors of the workforce that this is going to affect for a good bit longer even with eventual easing of guidelines (travel/restaurants/entertainment/sports/etc). That's also not to mention the small business part of the equation where there still isn't anything in place in terms of UC for self employed individuals.  

It's been harped on for weeks that testing ability is a major key to getting things started back up and countries that implemented aggressive testing for this right off the bat have been ones that have been able to both handle cases/isolating people while keeping at least some functionality. So it's mind boggling to me that we're still at a point this far into this outbreak where in a lot of cases we can only test folks with more serious symptoms and that's it (and sometimes not even then depending on availability) when in the same breath there's evidence that a notable percentage of possible cases could be from asymptomatic carriers. That type of data is extremely vital to those model projections they use to determine where were at in the spread of the virus and what measures are taken. We've tested roughly about 1% of the population in the US, which is certainly not enough of a percentage to really have the big picture without a lot of assumptions. This is a more of a visualization than a direct comparison... but if we're putting this really roughly in weather terms, that would be sort of like trying to figure out the weather pattern in the US plotting out 1% of official weather stations around the country. You might get an overall picture but your going to miss alot of details. 

It's a saving grace that the peak was delayed for central PA. If the state and the people here weren't doing what we're doing the spread and the overwhelming of hospitals would be way worse over here. I mentioned my cousins in law's parents both from Lancaster going into ICU both on ventilators in early April. Well...the mom was finally released. The dad was taken off a ventilator because he wasn't getting any better. I assume that means he's going to die since that was the only thing keeping him alive. They gave his ventilator to someone else who's more likely to survive from one. This whole situation is sad and anyone who isn't taking it seriously is ignorant. Some people don't care until it hits someone they really care about.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

Steady light snow..Everything is starting to turn white (33 degrees)

Per my comment a few years back in my "Day In the Life of Central PA Weather" thread, I swear it snows at your place from June through the following May.  

[2001kx]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Per my comment a few years back in my "Day In the Life of Central PA Weather" thread, I swear it snows at your place from June through the following May.  

Ha i remember that...Still snowing but temp went up a degree and a little melting is happening now... So not as white as earlier.

[Voyager]

38F with white rain here in Tamaqua for the past couple of hours now...

[MAG5035]

I think the further south rain/snow line of the Euro ended up being most correct, as we do have some instances of snow on the ground below I-80 this afternoon. Just rain here, but State College has had snow and there is some on the ground on the 511 cams up there and ESE of there on top of Seven Mountains (Rt 322). I-80 from Milesburg west to the Ohio border has varying degrees of snow.  

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, paweather said:

It certainly is, and like others say we can discuss the virus in respect of everyone's opinion I have no problem with that, I love this forum great info and people on it. But your right it is a crazy 2020 let's fast forward to December 2020 unless we will get a Halloween Snowstorm again! And I'm still holding out for May Snow! :-))))

Your point is well taken about everyone needs to make their own decisions we did before and we should now. There is going to be a huge rally on Monday in Harrisburg, I hope it doesn't get ugly and it shouldn't but we need to get people back to work that is my opinion. I'm a leader Healthcare IT consulting and our market is devastated right now. Hospitals are laying off because of no elective surgeries and ER's half full based on the state you live in. It is so sad that is even happening. I know some Physician Assistances who got laid off or reduced hours. 

Craziness, we can't live in fear forever and if anyone is scared to go out then stay home. Practice Social Distancing if your out and the right behavior. The best thing this has done for me is watching my Cowboys win the Super Bowl but that was in the 90's :-(((((

 

 

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah this will get ugly quick when peeps start running out if things. I agree with everything but have a little prob with the Cowboys. Hehe. Just kidding. You do you and I’ll be glad to sit next to you drink a brew watching them play (Lose) to the eagles. I’ll buy first round. 

btw peeps snowing nicely in the north woods. 

Here’s to better days gang. 

[2001kx]

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the further south rain/snow line of the Euro ended up being most correct, as we do have some instances of snow on the ground below I-80 this afternoon. Just rain here, but State College has had snow and there is some on the ground on the 511 cams up there and ESE of there on top of Seven Mountains (Rt 322). I-80 from Milesburg west to the Ohio border has varying degrees of snow.  

The rates have picked up and its now sticking much easier.

 

 

[paweather]

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah this will get ugly quick when peeps start running out if things. I agree with everything but have a little prob with the Cowboys. Hehe. Just kidding. You do you and I’ll be glad to sit next to you drink a brew watching them play (Lose) to the eagles. I’ll buy first round. 

btw peeps snowing nicely in the north woods. 

Here’s to better days gang. 

Love it! Have a good weekend.

[paweather]

Just now, 2001kx said:

The rates have picked up and its now sticking much easier.

 

 

Thanks for the pics! Have fun and enjoy it. 

[2001kx]

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks for the pics! Have fun and enjoy it. 

[MAG5035]

Tryin to mix some wet flakes with this heavier precip pressing in.

[MAG5035]

19 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

The rates have picked up and its now sticking much easier.

Looks like I-80 at the top of Rockton Mountain is starting to cave.