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Central PA - Spring 2020


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We'll have to watch the kicker system(s) behind the major Great Lakes storm progged to rip up through the lakes region on Monday, possibly in the next Wed/Thurs timeframe. This weather pattern shaping up on the models for the mid-month timeframe is exactly as I feared for about the whole last half of winter.. certainly not too little but definitely too late. We finally have the amp to the pattern with a well placed and very strong western US/Eastern Pac ridge with the highly anomalous eastern trough to go with it. It looks like it would probably be an anomalous enough pattern for mischief in the snowy form with a well placed/phased system. Models today around D6-7ish have what looks like maybe a northern branch wave digging behind a departing coastal that runs a wave of precip through. That'd probably be enough for flakes at least back this way and especially in the mountains, but probably tough to accumulate with a lighter event being progged. The temps/thicknesses aloft are certainly going to be there for any system but surface temps at the lower elevations with the strong sun will always be an issue this time of the year without an incredibly cold airmass or an intense storm system. 

It becomes extremely hard to get a widespread PA snowfall after maybe the first week of April. Light snow events in early-mid April aren't too out of the ordinary in the higher Laurel's locations, or even here (i've already seen mangled flakes today). But the April 7,1982 event is about the latest one I can think of for the LSV region, and we're getting past mid-month with this potential pattern later next week. The most extreme historical example is the April 28, 1928 snowstorm in central/western PA i've brought up a few times in the past.. that dumped 1-2 feet in this area and more in the southern Laurels. I remember a powerful nor'easter in mid April 2007 had model projections in the 3-5 day range with excessive snows but ultimately ended up only snowing in the high ground of the Apps. You have to pretty much have the stars align for a bigger event this time of the year. But even without any additional snow events, it looks quite cold and unsettled.. maybe not April 2018 cold but pretty chilly. 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

We'll have to watch the kicker system(s) behind the major Great Lakes storm progged to rip up through the lakes region on Monday, possibly in the next Wed/Thurs timeframe. This weather pattern shaping up on the models for the mid-month timeframe is exactly as I feared for about the whole last half of winter.. certainly not too little but definitely too late. We finally have the amp to the pattern with a well placed and very strong western US/Eastern Pac ridge with the highly anomalous eastern trough to go with it. It looks like it would probably be an anomalous enough pattern for mischief in the snowy form with a well placed/phased system. Models today around D6-7ish have what looks like maybe a northern branch wave digging behind a departing coastal that runs a wave of precip through. That'd probably be enough for flakes at least back this way and especially in the mountains, but probably tough to accumulate with a lighter event being progged. The temps/thicknesses aloft are certainly going to be there for any system but surface temps at the lower elevations with the strong sun will always be an issue this time of the year without an incredibly cold airmass or an intense storm system. 

It becomes extremely hard to get a widespread PA snowfall after maybe the first week of April. Light snow events in early-mid April aren't too out of the ordinary in the higher Laurel's locations, or even here (i've already seen mangled flakes today). But the April 7,1982 event is about the latest one I can think of for the LSV region, and we're getting past mid-month with this potential pattern later next week. The most extreme historical example is the April 28, 1928 snowstorm in central/western PA i've brought up a few times in the past.. that dumped 1-2 feet in this area and more in the southern Laurels. I remember a powerful nor'easter in mid April 2007 had model projections in the 3-5 day range with excessive snows but ultimately ended up only snowing in the high ground of the Apps. You have to pretty much have the stars align for a bigger event this time of the year. But even without any additional snow events, it looks quite cold and unsettled.. maybe not April 2018 cold but pretty chilly. 

Great post !

I was looking through my KU books for late season snow events. I came across another storm in April of 1983 that hit the Northeast on April 19th. There were several inches of snow in the Northeast quarter of PA into southern NY & New England.

Does anyone on here remember that storm?

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