Central PA - Spring 2020

[pawatch]

Mag as you mentioned we had a pretty nice day here 81.."Just north of wmpst" It would be nice having that weather all summer.

AC was on overnight only for the bedroom.

[Bubbler86]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

How many footsteps do you live from the Maryland border again? 

It's about 1000 feet.

[Bubbler86]

Now this is one beautiful morning around here! 

[Itstrainingtime]

The man who speaks my language:

E. Horst, MUWIC@MUweather

I hate to be the bearer of bad news...but after today, we've got a 10-day spell of colder-than-normal conditions on tap. How rude: After yesterday's high of 80...Wednesday will bring cold rain w/ temps holding mainly in the 40s! Dare I point out that some PA mtns might see snow?

[pasnownut]

On 5/1/2020 at 11:15 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

There has been a long running misunderstanding regarding Lancaster's observations and recordings. CTP uses airport terminals for a lot of it's measurements (MDT is Harrisburg's "official" station) but in Lancaster, my understanding is that the official records are kept at MU and not at the Lancaster airport. MU recorded 2.06" which is what i went with. 

There was quite a west/east gradient in our home turf yesterday with eastern locales barely eclipsing 1" while areas out west here approached 3" and a bit above. 

Edit: I fully disclose that I might not understand the official recording areas correctly at all.  

WHAATT....we dont know the truth.....

seems like we can get accurate information about anything anymore....hehe....sorta.

 

If we take the mean of the 2....I lose ...but that was a pretty decent spitball nontheless....

enjoy the sun.

[canderson]

Working from home with the windows open is on point today.

[sauss06]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Working from home with the windows open is on point today.

slept with windows open last night

[MAG5035]

Models are still playing around with high elevation snows on Wednesday, with the GFS/Euro/NAM lighting up the Laurels and west central PA blue with the system passing to the south. That's not even the craziest portion of the week in my opinion. That comes Saturday as the models prog the core of a major closed 500 low to pretty much move through or just north of PA. In term's of negative 500mb height anomalies it's easily the biggest in the hemisphere. New GFS sends sub 522 thicknesses and the Euro has had sub 516 into PA in previous runs. I've never seen anything like that before in May or really anything close to that. There will absolutely be frozen precip seen in a majority of the region this weekend if that 500 low dumps all the way down like the new GFS shows. That's also generating 100-200 j/kg of CAPE on Saturday under the strong May sun, so squalls could be pretty wild under that scenario.  

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Models are still playing around with high elevation snows on Wednesday, with the GFS/Euro/NAM lighting up the Laurels and west central PA blue with the system passing to the south. That's not even the craziest portion of the week in my opinion. That comes Saturday as the models prog the core of a major closed 500 low to pretty much move through or just north of PA. In term's of negative 500mb height anomalies it's easily the biggest in the hemisphere. New GFS sends sub 522 thicknesses and the Euro has had sub 516 into PA in previous runs. I've never seen anything like that before in May or really anything close to that. There will absolutely be frozen precip seen in a majority of the region this weekend if that 500 low dumps all the way down like the new GFS shows. That's also generating 100-200 j/kg of CAPE on Saturday under the strong May sun, so squalls could be pretty wild under that scenario.  

Wow...truly anomalous weather. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

slept with windows open last night

so did I.  Was 70 in my room at 1 am.  

We'll just say i was in mid summer attire.....or lack of 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Models are still playing around with high elevation snows on Wednesday, with the GFS/Euro/NAM lighting up the Laurels and west central PA blue with the system passing to the south. That's not even the craziest portion of the week in my opinion. That comes Saturday as the models prog the core of a major closed 500 low to pretty much move through or just north of PA. In term's of negative 500mb height anomalies it's easily the biggest in the hemisphere. New GFS sends sub 522 thicknesses and the Euro has had sub 516 into PA in previous runs. I've never seen anything like that before in May or really anything close to that. There will absolutely be frozen precip seen in a majority of the region this weekend if that 500 low dumps all the way down like the new GFS shows. That's also generating 100-200 j/kg of CAPE on Saturday under the strong May sun, so squalls could be pretty wild under that scenario.  

Wow. I hope it happens just to say it actually occurred.

[Bubbler86]

32 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

so did I.  Was 70 in my room at 1 am.  

We'll just say i was in mid summer attire.....or lack of 

[paweather]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Models are still playing around with high elevation snows on Wednesday, with the GFS/Euro/NAM lighting up the Laurels and west central PA blue with the system passing to the south. That's not even the craziest portion of the week in my opinion. That comes Saturday as the models prog the core of a major closed 500 low to pretty much move through or just north of PA. In term's of negative 500mb height anomalies it's easily the biggest in the hemisphere. New GFS sends sub 522 thicknesses and the Euro has had sub 516 into PA in previous runs. I've never seen anything like that before in May or really anything close to that. There will absolutely be frozen precip seen in a majority of the region this weekend if that 500 low dumps all the way down like the new GFS shows. That's also generating 100-200 j/kg of CAPE on Saturday under the strong May sun, so squalls could be pretty wild under that scenario.  

Thanks Mag! I would love it.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

so did I.  Was 70 in my room at 1 am.  

We'll just say i was in mid summer attire.....or lack of 

I don’t know how anyone sleeps in clothes regardless of the season. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

I don’t know how anyone sleeps in clothes regardless of the season. 

This. 

[Bubbler86]

Just watched WGAL (Channel 8/Lancaster)  for the first time in a while and Joe Calhoun was driving home the cold coming. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS brings snow to northern & western sections of CTP on Wednesday.

The rest of us need to wait until Saturday to see our May snow as @MAG5035 discussed earlier. 

This could be a historic few days of CTP weather coming up!

 

[mahantango#1]

In the longer term are there signs anywhere... that this cold pattern will break down and return us to more sustained warmth then 2-3 days.

[Blizzard of 93]

Good morning, the 0z Euro & GFS continue to show the chance of some snow by Saturday for most of CTP.

This a a great birthday present today for me to be still tracking snow on May 5th !

I don’t recall ever having this chance for even snow showers in May in the  LSV.

[Bubbler86]

For those interested here is an interactive map (middle of the page) showing calculations on virus cases per 100,000.  My county is surprisingly no where near 50.  Franklin is actually the highest in the state until you get to Lebanon East to West.    Even higher than Lancaster. And York is below 50 the last 14 days.

 

 https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/wolf-administration-issues-yellow-zone-rules-for-businesses-manufacturing-retail-will-lead-the-way-in-phased-reopening.html

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

In the longer term are there signs anywhere... that this cold pattern will break down and return us to more sustained warmth then 2-3 days.

Yes, long range models have us flipping to a more sustained warmer look on or around 5/15. At that point it looks to me like most if not all of the cold air will have finally been displaced until sometime later this fall. 

[MAG5035]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For those interested here is an interactive map (middle of the page) showing calculations on virus cases per 100,000.  My county is surprisingly no where near 50.  Franklin is actually the highest in the state until you get to Lebanon East to West.    Even higher than Lancaster. And York is below 50 the last 14 days.

 

 https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/wolf-administration-issues-yellow-zone-rules-for-businesses-manufacturing-retail-will-lead-the-way-in-phased-reopening.html

 

 

I didn't realize Clinton had enough new cases to be over that 50 per 100,000 threshold in 14 days.. and they're in a reopen region. Huntingdon has seen a pretty big jump in cases the last several days that has been noted to be from an outbreak of the virus within the state prison in the city of Huntingdon. That was even specifically addressed by Dr Levine whenever one of our local state reps brought up the overall low numbers back this way and the prospects of being the next to go to yellow. It does mention on that map that the 50 per 100000 rate isn't the only thing utilized. Even Allegheny County which includes Pittsburgh metro and a majority of the greater Pittsburgh region is easily under 50 (26.6). I know that was brought up a few days ago and the main reasoning for there to remain red was something to the tune of not risking high population density areas being on the first round of counties if I recall correctly.

That interactive map is also using the two week period from April 13-27, so it'll be interesting to see a more updated map. If they're updating this map once a week, we'll probably be due to see a new map within the next couple days as that April 13-27 period is a Monday-Monday timeframe, and the next one would be April 20- May 4. 

One also has to remember that 50 per 100,000 people doesn't mean staying under 50 cases per county. The actual case numbers to get that rate varies with the county's population. Franklin County with it's 155027 people needs to stay under 78 cases in two weeks to achieve that. A county like Clinton County, which was slightly over the 50 per 100k (56) has a population of 38,362.. which would equate to staying under just 20 cases in two weeks to achieve that criteria. Saying 50 per 100,000 is just a fancy way of stating 0.05%. So if anyone wants to see what the number is for their county, you take the county's population and multiply it by 0.0005. 

 

 

[Santa Clause]

We have an ongoing outbreak at a nursing facility that’s going to cause numbers to rise pretty quick. Sullivan has next to no cases and is skewing NCPA numbers.

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

We have an ongoing outbreak at a nursing facility that’s going to cause numbers to rise pretty quick. Sullivan has next to no cases and is skewing NCPA numbers.

Columbia County is actually in the north-central region with it's almost 300 cases, but that was left in the red. They stuck strictly to the health regions with the first round of counties they're bringing to yellow except for that one specific county. 

[Bubbler86]

40 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I didn't realize Clinton had enough new cases to be over that 50 per 100,000 threshold in 14 days.. and they're in a reopen region. Huntingdon has seen a pretty big jump in cases the last several days that has been noted to be from an outbreak of the virus within the state prison in the city of Huntingdon. That was even specifically addressed by Dr Levine whenever one of our local state reps brought up the overall low numbers back this way and the prospects of being the next to go to yellow. It does mention on that map that the 50 per 100000 rate isn't the only thing utilized. Even Allegheny County which includes Pittsburgh metro and a majority of the greater Pittsburgh region is easily under 50 (26.6). I know that was brought up a few days ago and the main reasoning for there to remain red was something to the tune of not risking high population density areas being on the first round of counties if I recall correctly.

That interactive map is also using the two week period from April 13-27, so it'll be interesting to see a more updated map. If they're updating this map once a week, we'll probably be due to see a new map within the next couple days as that April 13-27 period is a Monday-Monday timeframe, and the next one would be April 20- May 4. 

One also has to remember that 50 per 100,000 people doesn't mean staying under 50 cases per county. The actual case numbers to get that rate varies with the county's population. Franklin County with it's 155027 people needs to stay under 78 cases in two weeks to achieve that. A county like Clinton County, which was slightly over the 50 per 100k (56) has a population of 38,362.. which would equate to staying under just 20 cases in two weeks to achieve that criteria. Saying 50 per 100,000 is just a fancy way of stating 0.05%. So if anyone wants to see what the number is for their county, you take the county's population and multiply it by 0.0005. 

 

 

I had read the bottom graphic which said this data was up to date but you are right in that when you click on a county the numbers say for the period you mentioned.  That is slightly confusing.  Somewhere I read they are considering Fulton County to be opened so if Fulton opens I would expect most west to go to Yellow as well. 

 

[Santa Clause]

Lol it kinda seems counterproductive too, since I’m certain people in bordering counties will just travel and do business in yellow counties.

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

In the longer term are there signs anywhere... that this cold pattern will break down and return us to more sustained warmth then 2-3 days.

I think we're likely going to come out of this after mid-month, as modeling seems to flatten the trough and eventually show some ridging in the east and a bit of a western trough. Given how late in the spring we're going to be by that point, this is definitely looking like a candidate for straight to summer when the pattern breaks down and/or reverses. Saturday is going to be the low point for this whole thing though as an unbelievably cold airmass for this time of the year drops pretty much through PA. Like I said yesterday, the 1000-500 thicknesses are insane and something I've never seen in PA in May.. with the GFS easily sub 522 over all of PA and Euro sub 516 over a big portion of the state. Let me put it this way, if we had thicknesses like that in the middle of January we'd be concerned about it being too cold and supresssing the storm track. Or another way, if this type of thing actually dropped down in the middle of winter the thicknesses would be much lower than that (probably a 2015 style cold outbreak). That's generally not achievable well into May at the low levels, but the mid level temps are what's driving such low thickness values. When the core of this 500mb low moves through PA Saturday, models are progging nearly -40ºC (!!) at 500mb, -20ºC at 700mb, and -5 to -10ºC at 850mb over all of PA. That's crazy this time of the year. 

GFS generates a couple hundred j/kg of CAPE (Euro a bit north) Sat afternoon. The May sun is going to heat surface temps into the 40s or maybe even 50 or so in the LSV, so probably don't need to tell you the potential is there for robust diurnally driven showers with how cold it is aloft. I think anywhere in the region could see frozen on Saturday, either in grapuel or snow (or both). Grapuel counts as frozen precip too. It's going to be so cold aloft that a heavier shower is going to overwhelm the lower part of the column, and you'd only have to go up to about the 925-900mb level to get below freezing. 

The higher ground of west central and north-central PA could see two separate snow events in addition to this with tomorrow's system as well as a system progged on the models that ejects east later Friday underneath the pressing anomalous 500 low. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol it kinda seems counterproductive too, since I’m certain people in bordering counties will just travel and do business in yellow counties.

Yep, if Fulton opens I am going there this weekend :-). 

[sauss06]

someone told me last evening during social distancing happy hour, look for the Harrisburg area not to open until close to winter and schools wouldn't open until January. I find that incredibly hard to beleive. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

someone told me last evening during social distancing happy hour, look for the Harrisburg area not to open until close to winter and schools wouldn't open until January. I find that incredibly hard to beleive. 

I do know that some schools are discussing a one week on one week off plan. One week 1/2 the kids would go the the other 1/2 would go the other week....with distance learning on the off weeks.  Your scenario sounds like someone who is guessing things based on a vaccine being available and maybe totally open at that  point. .