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Jan 96 storm - Gary Gray articles

Wow

By Wow,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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Siesta Key

Siesta Key

Posted
Posted

I have been searching for this for quite some time. Thanks!

BTW, there was a story that related to the 96 blizzard, a met had to drive into the office to access the model runs and they had a great picture of everyone staring at the screen in amazement when the latest model runs amped up the storm. Anyone else recall this? Would love to read that again.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

GARY GRAY!!!!

well, i don't have a lot of time right now so i won't be able to read it all the way thru, that being said i'll do my best to read it tonite, unless i need to leave and then i'll read it tomorrow, but maybe tonite will still work.....

:lmao: I always think of the time thing when his name is mentioned.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

:lmao: I always think of the time thing when his name is mentioned.

yup, it was practically his signature to begin each discussion with some reference as to why he had to be quick or didn't have much time...lol He also had this perculiar way of flip flopping his own ideas in a single discussion.

boy that brings back memories from the wwbb days

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

yup, it was practically his signature to begin each discussion with some reference as to why he had to be quick or didn't have much time...lol He also had this perculiar way of flip flopping his own ideas in a single discussion.

boy that brings back memories from the wwbb days

He only had time to write 5000 words.

I miss his stuff.

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millwx

millwx

Posted
Posted

I've got these back up online. I think it would be good for all to read these in light of what's expected in the next few days. It gives a good perspective on the art of model forecasts. It's also the proof of the origins of the Euro's crowning as snowstorm forecasting king, if you will!

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

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Gibbsfreeenergy

Gibbsfreeenergy

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Congrats on first post GG. Why couldn't it have been a blizzard forecast damnit!

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Wow! Welcome, Gary.

Get this man a red tag.

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Rib

Rib

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Welcome! Wow, I remember reading your discussions 10 years ago. Awesome to have you here :thumbsup:

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chubbs

chubbs

Posted
Posted

Brings back great memories. Interesting how far modeling has come in past 15 years. We've been at this for 3-4 days already and were still 4 days out. Although we complain about the GFS compare it to the US suite back then.. If the Euro nails this one it will also have added several days lead time.

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White_Mtn_Wx

White_Mtn_Wx

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Gary, its great to have you on the board. You were my first real exposure to online model analysis and forecasting and as such I will always look back at those times fondly. Thanks for all of your analysis then and now!

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

When i was younger your write-ups where the model runs to me....you had such great disscussions....glad to see you here

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millwx

millwx

Posted
Posted

Welcome! Wow, I remember reading your discussions 10 years ago. Awesome to have you here :thumbsup:

Thanks Rib (and Jamie, upthread)! Yeah... can't believe those '96 posts are almost 15 years old. Ugh... I feel old. lol

I've been on here (well, on EasternUsWX) for quite a while... just in permanent lurk mode. I tend not to post for various reasons, but it's a great forum. There are a few mets, in particular, who I'm really keen on... e.g., dtk (an NCEP met, I think) who was hammering the fact that the models' sfc reflections aren't "wrong" compared to their upper level depictions (he was discussing this yesterday, I think). Great discussion by him... and he's absolutely correct. The issue was that the GFS' sfc low appeared to be too far east compared to the upper level support. However, the GFS had a spoke of vorticity that yielded a PVA spike that was likely the source of the sfc low spinup out ahead of where the rest of the upper levels would seem to imply. Point is, the models' sfc reflection isn't subjective... it's all math... the GFS put it there for a reason. Now, the GFS' actual forecast might be wrong (and almost certainly is, since this was yesterday's GFS which, now, appears to be horrid)... but the GFS didn't just "make up" this sfc reflection; the model's inherent dynamics drove it there. Anyway, getting off on a rant here... point is, this is a great forum for educating the masses - even we mets have a lot more we can learn from each other.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

You always were conservative. I used to wait for each of your discussions, and the Jan 96 ones were just the best! Nice to see you on here.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Have always love a good snowstorm but had never really understood the dynamics. Remember moving back east just before the 96 storm and finding your site. The revelation of what goes into making a storm amazed me. Ever since then I have been hitting these boards to follow and learn as much as I can. I owe it all to you and that first experience with your site. With all the time I now spend following these storms and the occasional sleepless nights I am not sure I should thank you. But I will. :)

With all sincerity, Thanks.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

I've got these back up online. I think it would be good for all to read these in light of what's expected in the next few days. It gives a good perspective on the art of model forecasts. It's also the proof of the origins of the Euro's crowning as snowstorm forecasting king, if you will!

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/

Boy, this brings back memory's. That was one he** of a fun storm.

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millwx

millwx

Posted
Posted

Way cool to see GG here! Yes, WE ARE getting old Gary. Been doing this for something like 15yrs.

It would be cool to know what you are up to these days...obviously a Met....but expand upon the subject if you do not mind.

Cheers!

SP... yup, still in the met field (thankfully... I know many fellow graduates who are doing computers or other stuff, since met jobs aren't exactly plentiful). I'm doing forecasting for a commodities trading firm... a complete change from my previous met career - which was writing software for weather satellite products and analysis. I've been doing this forecasting work for about five years, which is what spelled the end of my discussions/posts (conflict of interest... they forbid me to continue providing forecasts outside of work). Of course, I'm sure just posting about upcoming storms here on a wx forum would hardly be a breach... but I just stopped altogether cuz it was safer/easier. Anyway, I'm back in New England (SW CT) after a long stint in the Mid-Atl... cringing after missing last year in the Mid-Atl.

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted

SP... yup, still in the met field (thankfully... I know many fellow graduates who are doing computers or other stuff, since met jobs aren't exactly plentiful). I'm doing forecasting for a commodities trading firm... a complete change from my previous met career - which was writing software for weather satellite products and analysis. I've been doing this forecasting work for about five years, which is what spelled the end of my discussions/posts (conflict of interest... they forbid me to continue providing forecasts outside of work). Of course, I'm sure just posting about upcoming storms here on a wx forum would hardly be a breach... but I just stopped altogether cuz it was safer/easier. Anyway, I'm back in New England (SW CT) after a long stint in the Mid-Atl... cringing after missing last year in the Mid-Atl.

Very nice Gary! Great to hear from one of the originals again. You were certainly one of the reasons I got hooked and to this day continue to enjoy reading and learning.

Best of luck and a Happy Holidays to you and yours!

Cheers!

SP

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Maximum lawman

Maximum lawman

Posted
Posted

I never post on here. Hey, I don't have time!! Lol!!!! But I'm a lurker (yes, this is me... Gary Gray). But just wanted to say thanks for the props on this. Those were the days, eh?

FWIW, I'm on the fence with this upcoming one. Euro obviously had/has the right ideas on it. But concerned that it's west of *everything*. Def. the top dog in this game, but I'm holding off going whole hog with it for another 12-24hrs. We'll see where things go over that time.

Just want to say many many thanks for your posts in the past - every time there's a storm threat I miss your blog (it wasn't even a blog, they hadn't been invented yet!)

Now if we can just get JetStreak to post...

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