RedSky Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 12z ECM - Frost potential June 1st? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM - Frost potential June 1st? Yes! Although it will be more humid this week the highs are down from predictions a couple days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 3 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM - Frost potential June 1st? fake news! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Interesting evening here on the Jersey shore in Sea Isle City NJ....the colder than normal off shore 53 degree water temps making for a painful spring at the beaches. While 5 miles inland today were in the 70's here on the barrier islands no better than the upper 50's for most of our day....we finally cleared out for an hour this evening but as you can see on the attached video the marine layer cloud bank and fog were just off shore and came rolling back in over a 45 minute period this evening....me thinks it will be a tough week to realize any warmer temps here on the Jersey beaches no matter what we see just inland.... SicHi.20200525_183500.wmv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 NWS Mt.Holly ref: Wednesday thru Saturday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores. Preceding the weak Thursday system, surface flow will continue to slowly veer to a more south-southeast direction. With increasing boundary-layer dew points and a continued onshore component, would expect another round of fog and/or low clouds Wednesday night. As might be guessed, the temperature forecast is a little tricky, especially Thursday with the question marks regarding precipitation coverage. Although I expect it to be seasonably warm, the general trend was to nudge highs downward a bit. If precipitation is lacking and/or periods of reduced cloud cover occur, highs will be warmer than forecast. However, confidence is not high enough to stray much warmer than consensus at this point. Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front. The timing of the front is still under debate, with the GFS noticeably slower than the ECMWF/CMC. Tend to think a slower solution is more probable, owing to the strength of downstream ridging. As such, tended to keep PoPs a little bit higher than consensus on Saturday, which has ensemble support. If the slower solutions verify, Saturday would be another active convective day for portions of the region (especially the southeastern CWA). Severe storms are certainly possible on Friday and Saturday, though ambient shear appears rather weak. Thus, coverage of severe storms may be fairly sporadic/transient. Locally heavy rainfall seems probable, particularly in areas of training (slow-moving features in play), as PWs will remain rather high (1.6-2.0 inches, generally). As with Thursday, temperatures Friday and Saturday are a big question mark, with cloud cover, precipitation coverage, and frontal timing all playing roles in lowering confidence. Again, with the expectation that precipitation coverage will be sufficiently large, think that straying too far from guidance is unwise at this point. After the cold front passes through the region Saturday, temperatures will fall below seasonal averages Sunday into the following work week as a strong surface high builds into the region. Another lengthy period of dry weather looks to occur as well. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Tomorrow areas of drizzle, possibly heavy at times. What in the world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Tomorrow areas of drizzle, possibly heavy at times. What in the world Maybe they don't know about fog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 So much for the threat of heavy rain for Thursday/Friday at least on current model guidance. Have to see if that changes over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 82F/DP 64F Not horrible but certainly not crisp. Wonder if weather will be a factor launching SpaceX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: 82F/DP 64F Not horrible but certainly not crisp. Wonder if weather will be a factor launching SpaceX? Yep, postponed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 Will be interesting to see if that line holds together as well as it is for the next 30 miles of eastward movement. If it makes it out my way it looks like it will be around 6-6:15. Really muggy but there is a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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