KamuSnow Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Euro and UKMET(as well as other guidance) continues to hint at big rain on Thursday afternoon/evening. Totals across all guidance has ticked up today at 12z but the Euro and UKMET have some places near the 3" mark in 6-12 hours time. Lol, I've been waiting to seed my "flood plain" out back, looks like another topsoil order may be in my future first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Lol, I've been waiting to seed my "flood plain" out back, looks like another topsoil order may be in my future first. Those amounts are heavy duty and it's not like a 2 day event, relatively quick. Overall should be fun to track... 62F/sunny w/some gust. Speaking of, when my hat blows off my hair looks like Boris Johnson only 5x longer. A true nightmare and awkward at times... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Current temp is 68 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 64F here, still sunny, turned out to be a real nice day, especially the afternoon once it warmed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 6 hours ago, RedSky said: GFS has highs in the 40's on May 6 and 10th. The 6th is a cold rain and the 10th is under sunny skies. We are at the rubicon of ridiculousness. Absurdity at it's finest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Have 3.5" of rain on the month. See if 5 inches is attainable by days end tomorrow. At least the weekend and a couple days after look pretty good. Get some 70's going in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, BBasile said: Have 3.5" of rain on the month. See if 5 inches is attainable by days end tomorrow. At least the weekend and a couple days after look pretty good. Get some 70's going in there. Looks doable! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 64 and sunny here. Two days in a row, somewhat disorienting, but not a problem at all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: 64 and sunny here. Two days in a row, somewhat disorienting, but not a problem at all! Yeah, strange. No complaints here. Lots of pollen today, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 The upper levels are moving so fast with so many disturbances Sunday is turning into another rain day on 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Updated Day 1-3 QPF map from WPC Quote ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... A longwave trough draped across the OH/TN Valley will continue to migrate eastward Thursday into early Friday as a ridge axis in the west starts to build into the midsection of the country. At the surface, a low in the Great Lakes region will lift north and east through the period helping to guide a trailing cold front through the eastern U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning along and just ahead of the aforementioned cold front across portions of the coastal plain region of NC/VA into the mid-Atlantic region. Anticipate this precipitation to move east through the period, slowing and also expanding in coverage as the mid-level trough axis becomes negatively tilted. This tilt will not only enhance the large scale forcing for ascent, but usher in moisture from the Atlantic that will promote more expansive coverage and intensity of precipitation. At the update, it was also noted that distinct waves of mid-level impulses pivoting around the aforementioned trough should assist in lift and intensification of precipitation that could result in very narrow bands of locally higher storm total values. While there will be plenty of synoptic scale kinematic forcing, moisture will also be quite robust. Precipitable water values will climb above 1.25 inches aided by 40-50+ knot south/southeasterly flow; this is over 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. The one limiting factor is instability (which is most defined along the coast of the Carolinas), but could be underestimated farther north within this warm advection regime. Regardless, the slow progression of this front should promote training precipitation across the region as energy shifts northeast across the mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, combined with strong low level winds paralleling the front. As a result, areal average precipitation across the central East Coast, Mid-Atlantic and southern tier of the Northeast may average around 1.5-2.75+ inches. It appears that eastern PA into southern NY will likely see the highest storm totals not only due to the moisture convergence and slow progression, but also due to terrain enhancement is across the Poconos and Catskills. As we move into the Day 2 period, model spread continues with the EC being most robust with the QPF footprint and totals. Regardless, confidence is still high that based on the pattern setup alone, there will be multiple hours of moderate, to at times heavy rain across portions eastern PA/DE, NJ/CT and southern portions of NY. Given this region has received an abundance of precipitation as of late (reflected also in lower flash flood guidance values) and much of which could fall over urban areas, felt a Slight Risk should be maintained and expanded based on the latest WPC QPF forecast/footprint. No local creeks/rivers forecasts to get above action stage for now, but will be interesting to see their rise on Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 12z Euro, backed off a bit on the higher totals but still pretty robust especially across 95 and the pocono's. UKMET still VERY robust GFS is not as gung ho around 95 but still showing the higher amounts in the higher elevations 3km NAM shows the heaviest amounts just NW of 95 Overall looking like a good bet for widespread 1-2" rain mostly falling in a 6 hour period. Some places in the LV/Pocono's could see 3-4" lollipops imo. Should be a fun little storm with the wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 43 minutes ago, RedSky said: The upper levels are moving so fast with so many disturbances Sunday is turning into another rain day on 12z guidance. Looks more like Sunday night late afternoon at least. Euro is pretty amped with it. Show's another round of widespread 1"+ rains. That could cause problems if tomorrow doesn't. At the very least creeks/rivers will be running high after tomorrow. Not sure they'll be much lower come sunday night. I will say that there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Looks to be a pattern change after that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Guidance warmed slightly on the May cold waves today, a sliver of good news. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 Mt. Holly just upgraded the Wind Advisory for I-95 corridor on east to a High Wind Warning - Quote High Wind Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 920 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 DEZ001>003-NJZ013-014-016>022-026-027-PAZ070-071-010000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WI.Y.0010.200430T1400Z-200501T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.HW.W.0003.200430T1400Z-200501T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth- Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware- Philadelphia- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media, and Philadelphia 920 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages will be possible. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 Current temp here is 65 and overcast. I was out pulling some scallions (that grew over the winter in my raised "vegtrug" unit believe it or not) and got briefly splattered on with some raindrops. The main firehose is still to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Current temp here is 65 and overcast. I was out pulling some scallions (that grew over the winter in my raised "vegtrug" unit believe it or not) and got briefly splattered on with some raindrops. The main firehose is still to the west. We're still dry here yet as well. We had a enough rain to wet the pavement, but not even register in the gauge, sometime prior to sunrise, but that was it. Nothing since then except for a gusty breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Wind is much much stronger than i was expecting, any inversion seems insignificant right now with gusts much stronger than any of our previous wind events. Strong jet up above clearly doing its work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Haven't had too much wind yet, but it is starting to pick up a bit now. Clouds are racing, though. 65.7F with a 61 dew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 hour ago, BBasile said: Haven't had too much wind yet, but it is starting to pick up a bit now. Clouds are racing, though. 65.7F with a 61 dew. Gusty as hell here, may bring out the kite.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Gusty as hell here, may bring out the kite.... Is here as well, now. Currently 21 mph gusting to 38. Already hearing reports of wires and trees down on the fire band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Looks and feels like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Line doesn't seem to be making much progress east. Looks like some heavy training over Lancaster Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Line doesn't seem to be making much progress east. Looks like some heavy training over Lancaster Co. Seems to have moved eastward by about 25 miles over the last 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, BBasile said: Seems to have moved eastward by about 25 miles over the last 4 hours. I decided to mow for an hour, checked the radar and mowed for another 45 minutes, and the rain still looks to be an hour away. Heavy sounding wind in the trees here, apparently we lost power briefly. Interesting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected OK I'm getting SEwinds @ 28 and definitely gusting over 40-50mph. Just had 2 gusts where you can hear the windows whistling. At least it's warm should the power go out. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 I am starting to wonder if I will even crack an inch of rain here. We'll see. Rainfall so far today 0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just getting our first shower here, moving up from the south. Couple of pretty strong wind gusts with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Rain has been switching between a steady drizzle to moderate rain with each coming gust. Haven't seen any trees down but a lot of branches on the road. If this wind came after all the rain it'd probably be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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