March Banter 2020

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

Look at the US.  Warm places are seeing few infections and hardly any deaths.  Look at our hotspots.  Seattle area.  New York.  Look at Florida, Arizona, Texas, they have relatively few cases and deaths close to zero.  Let’s come back to this post in a few weeks.  And if I’m wrong i will readily admit it. 

[smokeybandit]

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

That’s the number that was cited by the Task Force at yesterday’s press conference.  It’s based on cases around the world.  

Right, but that isn't necessarily here in America

[jaydreb]

46 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Right, but that isn't necessarily here in America

It’s just starting here.  All we can do is use the numbers we have.  Why would Americans be any different?

[jaydreb]

49 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Look at the US.  Warm places are seeing few infections and hardly any deaths.  Look at our hotspots.  Seattle area.  New York.  Look at Florida, Arizona, Texas, they have relatively few cases and deaths close to zero.  Let’s come back to this post in a few weeks.  And if I’m wrong i will readily admit it. 

I hope you are right, but we are in the very beginning stages of this.  Way too early to draw any conclusions IMO.  

[North Balti Zen]

Um, they certainly got infected at Mar a Lago. That’s pretty warm.

[RDM]

2 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

Agree with some of the reference to warmer areas, but there's exceptions to this too.  The majority of the warmer climates in the world are also among the poorest where access to reliable testing is going to be marginal at best for a long time.  And the stats on the Johns Hopkins Heat Map are based solely on verified test results, which are significantly less than the number of actual cases.  

The stats for India and Africa are the prime examples of what is most likely under reporting.  Stats in African and the Indian sub-continent are currently well behind much of the rest of the world.  That said, the stats starting to ramp up 2 days ago.  From a temperature perspective, the northern tier of the subcontinent is still in transition from cool winter/spring temps (it does get below freezing in the winter in Delhi - DJF) to what we would call summer-like temps in the south.  

If we look at South America and Australia also, their stats have grown significantly over the last couple of days and Australia is just entering Fall along the southern coast.

As for China, their data integrity must be objectively questioned and significantly so.  Just as they deployed the largest quarantine in history, they also have the ability to control the data/stats.  They actively control all nodes of Internet traffic in and out of China with an acute level of precision most can't contemplate.  

Experienced a similar level of domain control albeit with the "free" press in India when I lived there in the 90's.  We had an outbreak of pneumonic plague in 94.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_plague_in_India  They voluntarily evacuated the US Embassy as the news consumed all forms of information services at the time (largely pre-Internet except for a few).  The story went from consuming entire sections of the Delhi Times on a Friday to nothing two days later.  Not a whimper.  In reality, the Indian political machine clamped down on the press and it just went away - like that.  Was a pretty amazing thing to live through at the time.  Actual deaths were wayyy higher than those acknowledged in the official reporting.  

Nothing above is intended to demean or question what we're facing with this pandemic.  Hopefully, the US will rise to the occasion and group together to bring to bear the best of what we can muster.  My fear is the current political climate will continue to undermine attempts to do so.  

[CAPE]

No one is changing minds when it comes to political views, especially in this current divisive political climate. What a fuccking waste of time. 

However, if anyone is interested in scissoring and hand wringing, and generally engaging in intellectually dishonest discourse, not to mention hurling personal insults, have at it here.

http://www.americanpol.com/

 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

March madness cancelation was a real  punch in the gut . If they cancel MLB that will be a double kick to the balls . Hopefully this gets under control soon . 

As an Os fan, I really couldn't give a shit. 

I haven't watched more than a few innings total since Showalter left. The baseball equivalent to the Deadskins.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As an Os fan, I really couldn't give a shit. 

I haven't watched more than a few innings total since Showalter left. The baseball equivalent to the Deadskins.

I agree. They can cancel the entire mlb season as far as im concerned.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm a baseball junky thru and thru . Love the game.  It will suck major if they cancel.  I did like Showalter alot though. Definitely missed 

They wont cancel. I mean, if they do then we are probably all screwed lol. Might be shortened, but 162 freaking game reg season is too long anyway. Esp with the expanded playoffs. Whats the point of a marathon of a reg season? Used to be after that marathon, 2 teams emerged and played a world series. 130 games is plenty today. And there would be no early/late season weather issues.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm a baseball junky thru and thru . Love the game.  It will suck major if they cancel.  I did like Showalter alot though. Definitely missed 

Showalter was awesome. Before he came to Baltimore the O's were intimidated by the Redsox and Yankees.

He intentially did things during games with those teams the first couple of years he was here to say were not afraid of you and its going to be a battle for all 27 outs.

Loved the attitude and grit he brought to Baltimore.

He did more with less resources and talent then most other managers are capable of.

Edit - I remember 1 game where I thought he was going to start throwing punches  at Joe Giardi at home plate. Really miss what he brought to the O's.

 

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Corona sure  hasn't slowed the mail . Bills keep a comin

As far as my daily routine.  It will be pretty unchanged.  Most of us Construction workers have to continue to work or we don't get paid . Simple as that . If things really make an ugly turn then I might lay low for a few days ( and  have to get a long term $loan from the @showmethesnow estate ) but otherwise I'll be out there every day.  I'll pack my lunch ( no convenience store stops) go straight to my jobs,  wash hands more often , stay away from any crowds and go on with life . 

Oh...and  drink lots and lots and lots of beer 

Stay hydrated my friend!! 

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I don't always drink beer ...

But when I do.. 

I prefer Corona...

Stay healthy my friends 

You have the original corona virus. Probably worse than this one.

[Inverted_Trough]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem. 

Yes there are narratives on both sides, but I don't think it's a 50/50 equal split.  The conservative side does peddle into the fear, conspiracy and propaganda more than the other.  I know that'll offend political sensibilities but it's true.  It normally is an effective political strategy -- and it's great for TV ratings -- but, as you can see, it not effective when there is an actual crisis.

Cable news is pretty terrible in general.  I think the fairness doctrine was a good idea.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Yes there are narratives on both sides, but I don't think it's a 50/50 equal split.  The conservative side does peddle into the fear, conspiracy and propaganda more than the other.  I know that'll offend political sensibilities but it's true.  It normally is an effective political strategy -- and it's great for TV ratings -- but, as you can see, it not effective when there is an actual crisis.

Cable news is pretty terrible in general.  I think the fairness doctrine was a good idea.

Any objective, fair minded person would agree that Fox news is largely a propaganda machine. I say that as a moderate democrat who has many conservative friends and family members, and is not a big fan of CNN or MSNBC either. There have been some legit good and objective journalists at Fox- Shep Smith was probably the best in recent times, until he just couldn't play that game anymore. There are one or 2 left there that are real journalists- Chris Wallace is one that comes to mind. Fox has essentially become state TV. There is no equivalent to Fox on the left leaning media outlets. It is simply the truth.

[Wonderdog]

43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Any objective, fair minded person would agree that Fox news is largely a propaganda machine. I say that as a moderate democrat who has many conservative friends and family members, and is not a big fan of CNN or MSNBC either. There have been some legit good and objective journalists at Fox- Shep Smith was probably the best in recent times, until he just couldn't play that game anymore. There are one or 2 left there that are real journalists- Chris Wallace is one that comes to mind. Fox has essentially become state TV. There is no equivalent to Fox on the left leaning media outlets. It is simply the truth.

Are you referring to ratings? I have no use for Hannity since he is a barker and cheerleader. But there is propaganda spewing from all sides. Except when it comes to the dossier. 

[NorthArlington101]

If you got the sec, please read/watch this fantastic article. If you don’t get why they want people to stay indoors, I don’t know what’ll convince you.

 

[SnowGolfBro]

6 hours ago, RDM said:

Agree with some of the reference to warmer areas, but there's exceptions to this too.  The majority of the warmer climates in the world are also among the poorest where access to reliable testing is going to be marginal at best for a long time.  And the stats on the Johns Hopkins Heat Map are based solely on verified test results, which are significantly less than the number of actual cases.  

The stats for India and Africa are the prime examples of what is most likely under reporting.  Stats in African and the Indian sub-continent are currently well behind much of the rest of the world.  That said, the stats starting to ramp up 2 days ago.  From a temperature perspective, the northern tier of the subcontinent is still in transition from cool winter/spring temps (it does get below freezing in the winter in Delhi - DJF) to what we would call summer-like temps in the south.  

If we look at South America and Australia also, their stats have grown significantly over the last couple of days and Australia is just entering Fall along the southern coast.

As for China, their data integrity must be objectively questioned and significantly so.  Just as they deployed the largest quarantine in history, they also have the ability to control the data/stats.  They actively control all nodes of Internet traffic in and out of China with an acute level of precision most can't contemplate.  

Experienced a similar level of domain control albeit with the "free" press in India when I lived there in the 90's.  We had an outbreak of pneumonic plague in 94.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_plague_in_India  They voluntarily evacuated the US Embassy as the news consumed all forms of information services at the time (largely pre-Internet except for a few).  The story went from consuming entire sections of the Delhi Times on a Friday to nothing two days later.  Not a whimper.  In reality, the Indian political machine clamped down on the press and it just went away - like that.  Was a pretty amazing thing to live through at the time.  Actual deaths were wayyy higher than those acknowledged in the official reporting.  

Nothing above is intended to demean or question what we're facing with this pandemic.  Hopefully, the US will rise to the occasion and group together to bring to bear the best of what we can muster.  My fear is the current political climate will continue to undermine attempts to do so.  

Less developed countries are not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus.  So while there is likely more cases than reported they are likely milder than seen in cold and flu prone areas. This by no means meant to say it’s right. I’m just making a prediction based on how i understand this stuff.  Which is about as good as i can predict the weather lol

[RDM]

51 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Less developed countries are not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus.  So while there is likely more cases than reported they are likely milder than seen in cold and flu prone areas. This by no means meant to say it’s right. I’m just making a prediction based on how i understand this stuff.  Which is about as good as i can predict the weather lol

Not sure I follow the syntax of the part in bold about "not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus".  If they are not going to be able to under report, does that default to they will be over reporting deaths?  Not trying to be sarcastic, just trying to understand the point you're making.  

It's was interesting to watch the growth of new cases in the equatorial strip of Africa and the Indian subcontinent over the last 24 hours.  Same for Central and South American and the Caribbean - all have experienced significant growth in the number of cases.  Wonder if the growth in these warmer and even tropical climates is catching the eye of CDC etc.  

[WxUSAF]

Let’s try to keep the conversation apolitical please. Staff has been letting things go because this is obviously something everyone wants to talk about. But let’s keep the discussion without politics as much as possible.

[CAPE]

NFL Draft has been postponed and will not be held in Las Vegas as planned.

My guess is it will go on behind the scenes, via conference calls etc. with no fanfare.

[Scraff]

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  

[WxUSAF]

54 minutes ago, Scraff said:

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  

Jeez, @Scraff, just let it go.  

[mattie g]

My family and five other neighborhood families have agreed that we will allow our kids to play together outside and that we will “socially distance” ourselves from one another until and if one of us gets sick. This is because we can’t honestly allow ourselves to think that our kids will be able to handle being cooped up inside and not being able to play together. We have all agreed that we will limit ourselves to this and not socially interact with other families until we’re at the end of this situation.

Two of the parents need to go into the office - the rest can be at home.

One family just told us that two of their boys had low-grade fevers yesterday, so they’re staying put now.

What a tough situation to be in. We realize that our approach isn’t ideal, but I do think we’re being responsible and realistic while allowing our kids to have some sort of normalcy in their daily lives.

[PDIII]

 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NFL Draft has been postponed and will not be held in Las Vegas as planned.

My guess is it will go on behind the scenes, via conference calls etc. with no fanfare.

Canceling the NCAA Tournament was the gut punch.  It was like.. "your not gonna take this seriously... then how about we cancel your little tournament.. "

I can deal with the kids being home.. I can deal with the empty toilet paper aisles.. shoot I can even deal with them canceling the St Patrick's day events... but canceling the NCAA tournament is talking it a little too far.  Someone should have stepped in and did something about that.    

[snowfan]

Wait, so you're saying that the tournament shouldve been held someway, somehow?

[PDIII]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

My family and five other neighbor go is families have agreed that we will allow our kids to play together outside and that we will “socially distance” ourselves from one another until and if one of us gets sick. This is because we can’t honestly allow ourselves to think that our kids will be able to handle being cooped up inside and not being able to play together. We have all agreed that we will limit ourselves to this and not socially interact with other families until we’re at the end of this situation.

Two of the parents need to go into the office - the rest can be at home.

One family just told us that two of their boys had low-grade fevers yesterday, so they’re staying put now.

What a tough situation to be in. We realize that our approach isn’t ideal, but I do think we’re being responsible and realistic while allowing our kids to have some sort of normalcy in their daily lives.

Thats kinda of the same approach Walmart took.. in deciding whether or not they should protect their employees.. they sent everyone home from the Ivory Tower.. allowing all corporate employees to WFH.  But when the rubber hit the road and they had to decide whether or not they were going to shut down stores.. it was as if someone said.. "Close down the stores? That would be like this is real"

So when you pressed with the prospect of actually having to entertain your kids for 24 hours a day with no end in sight.. under the same roof.. common sense starts to take over.  

[snowfan]

From a sports perspective and in my own view, the postponement of the Masters was the biggest call so far. If theres any place that can provide isolation for its players, its Augusta National. If they're taking this seriously, you take notice.

[snowfan]

Sorta feels like we're all waiting for that Italy or spain esque hot spot to appear in the US. And, not a matter of if, but when.

[PDIII]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Wait, so you're saying that the tournament shouldve been held someway, somehow?

Of course they should have.  Tournament or no tournament  you are not going to stop the spread of a virus.