March Banter 2020

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Imperial College study had an interesting idea—rather than a many months period of distancing, you create benchmarks that would trigger distancing measures being implemented. 

So 90 days distancing and a relaxation...then once cases pick up you go back to 90 days...rinse and repeat until there’s a vaccine or effective treatment. 

No easy answers like you said, but we have to treat this like war and be honest with people about the sacrifices required. 

Makes sense.  The goal of social distancing is to prevent the curve/spike from exceeding our health care resources.  The goal is not to stop people from getting sick unfortunately (although officials may not admit it).  If/when we see sufficient flattening of the curve, they may loosen some of the restrictions.   And then they may reinstitute them if there’s another spike and we approach the capacity of our health care resources.  

Hopefully in a year or so we’ll have a vaccine and this will be behind us.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Who is “they”?  The current guidelines are for 2 weeks.  They’ve all but said that they will be extended and possibly made even stricter, but to my knowledge no one in an official position has said they will go on for a year.    I do suspect that this will last at least until the summer.  I doubt we will be sitting home a year from now.   

If it seems like they are moving the goal posts it’s because they are.   They are instituting the social distancing measures as a gradual process, rather than all at once, and it’s guided by the data and modeling.

We all wish there was some magical better plan, but this is the best we can do for now.  We need vaccines and anti-virals but that takes time.  

Two weeks? Even the CDC has recommended social distancing for the next eight weeks: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487702-cdc-recommends-no-events-of-50-or-more-people-for-next-eight-weeks

 

One example of many experts saying this will take years:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Imperial College study had an interesting idea—rather than a many months period of distancing, you create benchmarks that would trigger distancing measures being implemented. 

So 90 days distancing and a relaxation...then once cases pick up you go back to 90 days...rinse and repeat until there’s a vaccine or effective treatment. 

No easy answers like you said, but we have to treat this like war and be honest with people about the sacrifices required. 

Could a benchmark be when the deaths from starvation exceed virus deaths? Because right now, even if the virus were magically wiped out, you're looking at exceeding Great Recession levels of unemployment and GDP contraction. If this goes for months, you're looking at Great Depression levels easily. I don't think many Americans realize what that's going to look like. So I agree on the honesty part.

[jaydreb]

16 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Two weeks? Even the CDC has recommended social distancing for the next eight weeks: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487702-cdc-recommends-no-events-of-50-or-more-people-for-next-eight-weeks

 

One example of many experts saying this will take years:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

 

I was talking about the guidelines for no gatherings greater than 10 people.  That’s 15 days but will certainly go beyond.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf

I agree that we won’t be seeing any big events any time soon.  In fact,  I won’t be surprised if we’re ordered to stay in our houses with limited exceptions.

You will hear a lot of experts (and non-experts, like me) giving a lot of opinions about how long this will last.  Nobody knows for sure except that it will probably go on longer than anyone thinks.  

[Wonderdog]

28 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Could a benchmark be when the deaths from starvation exceed virus deaths? Because right now, even if the virus were magically wiped out, you're looking at exceeding Great Recession levels of unemployment and GDP contraction. If this goes for months, you're looking at Great Depression levels easily. I don't think many Americans realize what that's going to look like. So I agree on the honesty part.

If you read between the lines of the experts, they don't know what's to come. So they are erring on the side of safety. One thing we do know is that is that people 60 years old and up have the most to worry about re dying from this virus. Yes it apparently is very contagious. About 650,000 people die from respiratory diseases each year globally. Maybe we should stop spreading panic and suck it up for a few weeks and then hopefully go on with our lives.

[NorthArlington101]

If you read between the lines of the experts, they don't know what's to come. So they are erring on the side of safety. One thing we do know is that is that people 60 years old and up have the most to worry about re dying from this virus. Yes it apparently is very contagious. About 650,000 people die from respiratory diseases each year globally. Maybe we should stop spreading panic and suck it up for a few weeks and then hopefully go on with our lives.

IIRC the “suck it up scenario” has 80% of the population getting infected with 2.2-4 million Americans dying — this is the Imperial College study. As a young and healthy person, it is a tempting option to have this over with in a month or so. But it’s simply not responsible.

[poolz1]

We will not get back to some semblance of normalcy, stop the bleeding of America or anything else until we can blanket test anyone and everyone or....a vaccine can be administered in large numbers.  Lack of being able to blanket test will be like putting out a wildfire and then putting on a blindfold and trying to put out the hotspots as they flare up...impossible to contain.  

Honestly, I dont know if that is even a possibility with a population of 300mil+.  IMO, that is the only thing that will keep this from being a worse case scenario in human suffering and economically.  It is easy to go down a rabbit hole with this whole thing...I get it and do the same thing myself at times.  But, we are a strong resilient people that can adapt quicker than most will give us credit for.  

I liken this to experiencing the death of a loved one.  In the early days of grief you are baffled and confused with how to even live life without this person...convinced life will never be "good" again and then the brain starts to process this more rationally. Before you know it you accept this new life and are content with creating happiness in this new life.  We are now just in the stage of realizing the death of life as we know it...when acceptance comes, that is when we pull together in masses and blast forward toward the life we had before.

[ErinInTheSky]

29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

IIRC the “suck it up scenario” has 80% of the population getting infected with 2.2-4 million Americans dying — this is the Imperial College study. As a young and healthy person, it is a tempting option to have this over with in a month or so. But it’s simply not responsible.

It's not an option at all. Even the best of the studies only focus on the coronavirus deaths.

 

What the "suck it up" scenario also does, which is why it is absolutely 100% not an option, is it destroys our health care system. It will make it virtually impossible to treat all other illnesses like strokes, heart attacks, surgeries people need to save their lives, could even shut down primary cares.

[Wonderdog]

37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

IIRC the “suck it up scenario” has 80% of the population getting infected with 2.2-4 million Americans dying — this is the Imperial College study. As a young and healthy person, it is a tempting option to have this over with in a month or so. But it’s simply not responsible.

The "suck it up scenario " only referred to the suppositions and "what it's expressed here. Being a senior, I am in no way downplaying this pandemic. And I think the study said 1.1 to 1.2 million(and I'm not downplaying these figures).

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Let’s all hope that the experts dire predictions end up being as accurate as the predictions most of you made for this winter. 

[George BM]

17 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Let’s all hope that the experts dire predictions end up being as accurate as the predictions most of you made for this winter. 

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think this gif perfectly encapsulates the winter that wasn’t. 

At least folks managed to find something else that required them to stock up on TP.

 

[ErinInTheSky]

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/18/world/europe/18reuters-health-coronavirus-italy-tally.html?searchResultPosition=5

 

:-/ It's not slowing down in Italy.

[NorthArlington101]

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/18/world/europe/18reuters-health-coronavirus-italy-tally.html?searchResultPosition=5
 
:-/ It's not slowing down in Italy.

It is percentage wise. The increase is far from its original exponential track.

[NorthArlington101]

It is percentage wise. The increase is far from its original exponential track.

. Pro

[Wxdavis5784]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

 

[JakkelWx]

U.S cases are just 10 away from 9,000 confirmed cases. Currently sitting at 150 deaths nationwide.

[PDIII]

19 hours ago, Ji said:

On 3/17/2020 at 6:49 PM, JakkelWx said:

Total worldwide cases are at 198,895, and 7,970 deaths worldwide. Just 30 away from 8,000 and I believe we should hit that in the next couple hours. We will probably be at 200,000 worldwide confirmed cases before midnight.

Those numbers are not impressive especially if you remove china and Italy from equation

How do you mean Ji?  I dont think we can trust the China numbers either.  We dont know what type of analysis was used to test the patients.

[motsco]

 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I really thought my electrical business would tank but it's been quite the opposite.  I'm surprised a customer wants me in there house to possibly expose them but so far that's the case . Phone has been ringing and I'm happy for it but I'm sure it's very temporary.  One great thing imo  I've noticed going from house to house for service calls is all the kids actually playing outside in their front yards and back yards . It's been probably 20 years since I've seen so many children actually outside playing vs indoors on video games or iPads etc... Even in summer time I never see kids out anymore. Everyone stay safe !

BTW ...I haven't bought any TP yet . I steal a role out of the portable toilets on each of the jobsites  daily. 

 

 

Just messin...lol but I could

 

 my bride and i were talking last night how we never seen and hear so many kids outside playing, and people walking the neighborhood since the 90’s.   it’s kinda of nice.  like the old days when our kids where little.

 

as for business, mine is sucking wind.   

[PDIII]

3 hours ago, wdavis5784 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

 

What does he mean by "shut down" the economy?  Stop trading on the NYSE?  Thats not gonna do any good.  We need to have faith in our markets.  

[PDIII]

3 hours ago, wdavis5784 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

 

This guy is makes me so angry.  I am not mature enough to handle a Pandemic.  

[nj2va]

We escaped to Deep Creek for at least two weeks (since my Firm ordered everyone to work remote) to get away from civilization.  March in Deep Creek is just about the worst month here though unfortunately...cloudy/chilly/rainy 9 times out of 10.  Hoping for anomalous warmth ASAP.

[nw baltimore wx]

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We escaped to Deep Creek for at least two weeks (since my Firm ordered everyone to work remote) to get away from civilization.  March in Deep Creek is just about the worst month here though unfortunately...cloudy/chilly/rainy 9 times out of 10.  Hoping for anomalous warmth ASAP.

Hit the wine/beer/liquor store, build a fire, drink, get a good book, take long walks, drink, take some pictures of Swallow Falls, skip stones on the lake, drink, repeat.

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Stop it. It’s just another flu.

Stop reaping and fix this.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you can do it much sooner of course...it’d probably be when hospital capacity reaches a certain level, say 60% or something. 

This is a really bad situation, and a lot of us have never been asked to make these kinds of sacrifices and take these losses before. It’s going to be hard. But if this is a war, and I think it is, we have to get the public to avoid the historical pitfall of thinking “it’ll all be over by Christmas”. 

Speaking of this being war, am I the only one watching over my shoulder to see which country decides to take advantage of the USA while we r down and out? Wouldnt be the least bit surprised if we are at war by late summer and I dont think we have the resources for that right now which is exactly why I could see one of the other world superpowers flexing their muscle. There are 4 countries that we need to be watching closely...Iran, Russia, N Korea, China.

[H2O]

I remember the days where the worst thing I had to read in the banter threads were my ms paint snow maps

[H2O]

9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Hit the wine/beer/liquor store, build a fire, drink, get a good book, take long walks, drink, take some pictures of Swallow Falls, skip stones on the lake, drink, repeat.

i wish I could.  Still gotta work every day...at the office.

But i am taking walks every day with the fam. Yesterday i played a silly game with my youngest to see if we could NOT step on a crack to break our mom's backs.  Its a childs game but it made both of us laugh and I think you would agree that laughter right now is so desperately needed.  For her and for me.  For all of us.

 

  The drinking I save for the weekend

[Sparky]

^^ Don't think China would mess with the US.  The flow of goods from them to us is so great they wouldn't want to break that relationship.

[Its a Breeze]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of this being war, am I the only one watching over my shoulder to see which country decides to take advantage of the USA while we r down and out? Wouldnt be the least bit surprised if we are at war by late summer and I dont think we have the resources for that right now which is exactly why I could see one of the other world superpowers flexing their muscle. There are 4 countries that we need to be watching closely...Iran, Russia, N Korea, China.

I honestly can't tell if this is being sarcastic or not.

In the off chance this isn't sarcasm, then...LOL!!!

The U.S. being down and out?? Not even close. If this gets as bad as it could, the U.S. has 1000x more capabilities to handle it better than the countries you listed. You honestly think they would go to war with a superpower when they'd be struggling hard at home? None of those countries have the cajones to do that....

[rclab]

16 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

I honestly can't tell if this is being sarcastic or not.

In the off chance this isn't sarcasm, then...LOL!!!

The U.S. being down and out?? Not even close. If this gets as bad as it could, the U.S. has 1000x more capabilities to handle it better than the countries you listed. You honestly think they would go to war with a superpower when they'd be struggling hard at home? None of those countries have the cajones to do that....

Totally agree. The two largest nations mentioned know exactly what’s in their best interest, long term, economically. With the two smaller ones there is a tendency for the desperation butter to slide off the noodles. We shall see. As always ....