March Banter 2020

[WxUSAF]

@mattie g we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

[mattie g]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@mattie g we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

Glad to hear others are taking the same approach.

My parents and my wife’s parents aren’t local, so we don’t have that concern from a personal interaction perspective, though my wife just told her mom that she’s cancelling their flight to HHI in early April as a precaution.

Next-door neighbors’ parents live a few miles away and are really involved in their lives. That’s awesome, though the grandmother is...ummm...over-involved. They got invited to their house for dinner tonight, and from what they told us yesterday, declining the invitation won’t go over well!

[jaydreb]

16 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Of course they should have.  Tournament or no tournament  you are not going to stop the spread of a virus. 

We’re not talking about stopping it.  We’re trying to slow it down.  

[jaydreb]

Get ready for the real apocalypse!

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/across-pa/pa-state-wine-liquor-stores-close-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

[NorthArlington101]

[mention=1705]mattie g[/mention] we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

Asymptomatic transmission seems possible, FWIW. But “social distancing” with a larger group is possible, as long as everyone holds up their end of the bargain and actually only hangs out with people in that group. It takes one person to screw it up.

[PDIII]

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We’re not talking about stopping it.  We’re trying to slow it down.  

The best thing to do to lessen that impact would be to tell people not to show up at the emergency room if they get a cold.  Realistically the worst thing that can happen is that too many people show up to the hospital asking for a test that doesnt exist.  And even you do test positive, it is not gonna change the prognosis or the treatment.. Go home, get some rest, maybe take some antibiotics so it doesnt evolve in to a bacterial infection that could actually kill you.. 

[PDIII]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Asymptomatic transmission seems possible, FWIW. But “social distancing” with a larger group is possible, as long as everyone holds up their end of the bargain and actually only hangs out with people in that group. It takes one person to screw it up.

Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!

 

[NorthArlington101]

Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!
 

Listen, people can live their lives however they want. All that you have to know is by not changing your habits, you making it possible for the disease to better spread through your community. Go through the Washington Post simulation I posted earlier for a visual demonstration.

Will you die by going out to Starbucks? You almost surely won’t. However, it remains unnecessary — get a freaking Keurig.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Listen, people can live their lives however they want. All that you have to know is by not changing your habits, you making it possible for the disease to better spread through your community. Go through the Washington Post simulation I posted earlier for a visual demonstration.

Will you die by going out to Starbucks? You almost surely won’t. However, it remains unnecessary — get a freaking Keurig.

People aren't going to take this seriously until people they know start dying. Unfortunately by that time, you're 3 weeks behind because it takes 3 weeks from infection to death.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Dr. Albert Bartlet

[CAPE]

Flattening the curve yo.

PDIII doesn't get it.

[jaydreb]

7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!

 

Enjoy it because my bet is it won’t be open anymore in a week or so.  

[NorthArlington101]

Enjoy it because my bet is it won’t be open anymore in a week or so.  

if people haven’t registered that we are going into an Italy/Spain/China style lockdown within the next 1-2 weeks... they are gonna be in for a shock.

[PDIII]

 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

if people haven’t registered that we are going into an Italy/Spain/China style lockdown within the next 1-2 weeks... they are gonna be in for a shock.

My bar is 7-11.  If they close 7-11 then this is real.  

[CAPE]

In other (semi-non related) news, Marshall Yanda retired this week, leaving a major hole on the OL for the Ravens to fill.  Might have to address that need through the draft, whenever that happens.

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  

(I like both movies)

Watched Frozen 2 with the family last night.  Must have hit it within an hour of it appearing on Disney+.

[heavy_wx]

35 minutes ago, PDIII said:

The best thing to do to lessen that impact would be to tell people not to show up at the emergency room if they get a cold.  Realistically the worst thing that can happen is that too many people show up to the hospital asking for a test that doesnt exist.  And even you do test positive, it is not gonna change the prognosis or the treatment.. Go home, get some rest, maybe take some antibiotics so it doesnt evolve in to a bacterial infection that could actually kill you.. 

~10% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to require ICU treatment. The US hospital system has a limited capacity to provide people with those resources so if there are too many cases at the same time, the system is overloaded and people will not be able to get the treatment they need. Social distancing measures to limit the number of cases occurring at the same time are essential to make sure we don't have that situation - essentially what is happening right now in Italy and Spain - here in the US.

[nw baltimore wx]

Hopefully it won’t be long before someone in the tv sports industry with some pull decides to play an old ncaa tournament in its entirety as if in real time.

[RDM]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Hopefully it won’t be long before someone in the tv sports industry with some pull decides to play an old ncaa tournament in its entirety as if in real time.

 Agree.  Saw a couple of listings last night on FIOS from previous tournaments.  If they play some finals from long ago, maybe we'll be able to forget who won when watching to avoid spoiling the fun.  Heck, I can't remember who one many of the tournaments in the 90's and 2000's anyway.  Was overseas most of that time - plus I'm old now and forgot what I did yesterday. 

On a separate note, the impact on advertising and lost revenue is enormous.  Was watching something last night and an advertisement for the Players Championship ran just like normal, after it's obviously already been canceled.  Was a late night program, but was still interesting to see an advertisement for a canceled event.  

[nw baltimore wx]

I watched the Caps beat the Islanders last night after being down 4-0 from last month. I was still cheering.

[snowfan]

All casinos in md closed indefinitely. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

(I like both movies)

Watched Frozen 2 with the family last night.  Must have hit it within an hour of it appearing on Disney+.

Oh I’ve seen them already too. They are both very good. I’m just mad I’ll see more snow in a movie than in real life. 

 

 

 

emoji 

[PDIII]

2 hours ago, heavy_wx said:

~10% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to require ICU treatment. The US hospital system has a limited capacity to provide people with those resources so if there are too many cases at the same time, the system is overloaded and people will not be able to get the treatment they need. Social distancing measures to limit the number of cases occurring at the same time are essential to make sure we don't have that situation - essentially what is happening right now in Italy and Spain - here in the US.

 

"Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

"Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people have coronavirus in US"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

[PDIII]

@heavy_wx If (conservatively) 50,000 people in the US have Corona Virus (JHU) and probably more accurately a half million (read the article) and as you report ~10 of COVID-19 case are serious enough to require ICU treatment.... how are our hospitals not overwhelmed currently? 

[PDIII]

23 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Is there evidence that 20% of cases need hospitalization here in America?

no

[heavy_wx]

6 minutes ago, PDIII said:

@heavy_wx If (conservatively) 50,000 people in the US have Corona Virus (JHU) and probably more accurately a half million (read the article) and as you report ~10 of COVID-19 case are serious enough to require ICU treatment.... how are our hospitals not overwhelmed currently? 

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

[PDIII]

 

"Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children under the age of five years, accounting for 18% of all deaths of children under five years old worldwide"

https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/news_events/news/2011/pneumonia/en/

Thats about 5,000 kids dying of Pneumonia every day

[ErinInTheSky]

33 minutes ago, PDIII said:

 

"Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

"Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people have coronavirus in US"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

I've explained this a number of times. There's a 3 week period between initial infection and getting bad enough to get to the ICU. It takes a long time for this disease to take course.

 

And because the growth is an exponential function with a doubling time of about 3-4 days, infection 3 weeks ago would be a miniscule number of cases.

[ErinInTheSky]

But put it this way: This disease will make its presence known whether you believe the numbers that are coming or not. Every other nation tried to ignore it and it brought them to their knees. It absolutely demolishes hospital capacity.

[PDIII]

14 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

I think a more appropriate question is how many (thousands) of people already died from the Corona Virus in this country already?  Think about it.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

 

26 minutes ago, PDIII said:

 

"Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children under the age of five years, accounting for 18% of all deaths of children under five years old worldwide"

https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/news_events/news/2011/pneumonia/en/

Thats about 5,000 kids dying of Pneumonia every day