March Banter 2020

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, it’s a far less concentration of people. If a kid goes out to play with friends it’s usually a smaller group of people than an entire cafeteria during lunch. There’s also less potential as middle and high school students swap classes, creating multiple opportunities for transmission.

Just our luck, 007; in NYC the Mayor bombs out in his bid for greater mediocrity and comes back to do his elected job and by gosh, his greatest accomplishment is to keep the Public School system open against the advice of his own City Council President and others. Even with an understanding of his, keep the schools open position, I still keep thinking of all the good intentions that famous road is paved with. As always ...

[smokeybandit]

The CDC raised similar concerns back in the Swine Flu days.  None of which came close to fruition and not nearly as much was done then to stop the spread.

[Wonderdog]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. My mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

Well put.

[George BM]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Whats this?  No mention of the 00z GFS for next Thursday of next week?  Its a quick wet snow bomb for like 4-8 hours... soundings even support heavy wet snow into DC proper at 12z THUR and even 15z THUR... better run for Ji than 18z was lol

 

Corona virus tracking is the new thing these days. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

I think others have hit on this, but I feel the need to chime in that this logic doesn’t really work.

If kids give it to kids, those kids then are vectors to give it to their parents, and from there to other people as those parents possibly interact while being asymptomatic.

This is going to be hard on families who aren’t prepared to work on one (or less) income - almost impossibly hard in some cases. However, the answer is not to send kids to school as a form of childcare - that defeats the purpose of trying to “flatten the curve.”

I feel lucky that my wife stays at home and works freelance in her spare time, so we don’t have childcare concerns (other than my wife’s sanity). For families who are able to work remotely, it will be tough to handle the logistics but they’re in a much better position than many others. Hopefully the rest of the people who have no choice but to try to work until/unless they get show symptoms will be able to ride things out. Aside from those who will suffer greatly from being ill (and their families), these are the people to whom my heart goes out.

[Wxdavis5784]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d just like to know, honesty and sincerely, how anyone can still believe this isn’t that serious. 

This is probably the largest mobilization and disruption of American society since the Second World War. The stock market in a span of two weeks went from all time highs to one of the sharpest declines in American history. Virtually half the states, led by legislatures and governors of both parties have declared states of emergency and states are shutting all public schools.

Like, do you really think we’d be doing this if this virus were another flu? Do you really think places like China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain would halt their economies for a bad flu season? 

We can disagree on the eventual scope. Maybe the mortality rate is closer to .4% than 2%. Perhaps the transmission rate slows during warmer months. But the facts are the facts and the math is the math and it ain’t got squat to do with what Obama did in 2009 and what the swine flu may or may not have done. 

Amen Brother.

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d just like to know, honesty and sincerely, how anyone can still believe this isn’t that serious. 

This is probably the largest mobilization and disruption of American society since the Second World War. The stock market in a span of two weeks went from all time highs to one of the sharpest declines in American history. Virtually half the states, led by legislatures and governors of both parties have declared states of emergency and states are shutting all public schools.

Like, do you really think we’d be doing this if this virus were another flu? Do you really think places like China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain would halt their economies for a bad flu season? 

We can disagree on the eventual scope. Maybe the mortality rate is closer to .4% than 2%. Perhaps the transmission rate slows during warmer months. But the facts are the facts and the math is the math and it ain’t got squat to do with what Obama did in 2009 and what the swine flu may or may not have done. 

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way.   How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months?  I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all.  I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media. 

[JakkelWx]

If the current handling of the coronavirus in the U.S doesn't end the Trump administration for good, I don't know what will.

[psuhoffman]

@WxWatcher007 btw how is your mother doing?   Take care of yourself and your loved ones. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way.   How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months?  I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all.  I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media. 

 And here is why I wish we would see politics left off of these boards. Being a moderate Conservative I really have taken issue with several statements you and others have said in the past and now especially this one. Now I don't attack liberals on here and have even gone out of my way not to respond in some cases even though I was chomping at the bit. I just wish that could be reciprocated in kind. Now I am not a fool and have realized for a long time that these boards are heavily liberal which wasn't an issue for me as we for the most part played nicely together. But if this is going to be the new norm (Conservative bashing) then I want no part of it. No reason to come here when I can get all the division and anger on a daily basis out in the real world.

[WxUSAF]

Let’s all try to keep things respectful folks. 

[SnowGolfBro]

This is an observation based on the statistics as they stand to date.  I am hearing two conflicting statements that no one seems to be piecing together.  I see the fatality rate listed somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.  But i also hear a lot of people saying there are far more undiagnosed cases than the numbers reflect.  So assuming all deaths related to the virus are reported (which seems reasonable) but a large number of cases go undiagnosed (due to mild symptoms, no symptoms or are simply resting and recovering as if they had any other cold or virus) then I’d estimate that the death rate is closer to that of the common flu (one tenth of one percent).  I don’t see how this logical conclusion is not being trumpeted by everyone.  Taking the craziest prediction i have heard of 150 million Americans getting the Wuhan Red Death. Then that would equal 150,000 deaths.  Just an opinion, but it doesn’t hurt to have perspective in difficult times.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way.   How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months?  I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all.  I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media. 

You mean like a certain Russian collusion conspiracy?  Or that nonsense about a presidential campaign being spied on?  Or about a certain dossier of alarming and embarrassing accusations being funded by a certain political opponent? 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

She’s doing well. Back home now. Hospital was insane the entire time she was there. Definitely in the vulnerable population so hopefully she didn’t pick anything up while there. 

Glad to hear!  Best wishes to her.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

If the current handling of the coronavirus in the U.S doesn't end the Trump administration for good, I don't know what will.

Get a grip for God's sake.

[JakkelWx]

There's been around 8,000 new cases over the past 12 hours.

Edit: Worldwide

[smokeybandit]

Probably another 10-14 days before it hits it peak in America, judging by how long it took China and Korea to level out

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

 And here is why I wish we would see politics left off of these boards. Being a moderate Conservative I really have taken issue with several statements you and others have said in the past and now especially this one. Now I don't attack liberals on here and have even gone out of my way not to respond in some cases even though I was chomping at the bit. I just wish that could be reciprocated in kind. Now I am not a fool and have realized for a long time that these boards are heavily liberal which wasn't an issue for me as we for the most part played nicely together. But if this is going to be the new norm (Conservative bashing) then I want no part of it. No reason to come here when I can get all the division and anger on a daily basis out in the real world.

I applilogize for how my statement came off. Please give me a chance to fully explain. 

Stupid isn’t confined to any political ideology. And you by no means fall into that category.  I know your political leanings and I respect that and have no issue with it.  I have good friends who are conservative. 

My criticism wasn’t aimed at conservatives, it was aimed at conservative media that for some reason (maybe they saw this as a threat to Trumps re-election) spent months telling people this was a hoax or a liberal conspiracy to hurt Trump. I think that is a problem now in trying to convince everyone to make personal sacrifices for the larger good. If people think this is a hoax they aren’t going to alter their behaviors. That message by some right wing media was irresponsible imo.  That’s not the fault of the people who got that message.  And liberals would fall prey to the same type of ploy.  I’m not ignorant that there are similar issues on the left.  I’ve seen liberal memes based on lies spread also.  I get irked by CNN and MSNBC when they are trying too hard to attack the right instead of just conducting a fair interview and reporting news.  I was mad the other day when CNN had Pence on and wasted the whole time trying to get shots in about Trumps stumbles at the PC rather than ask substantive questions about the current situation.  Had the liberal media spent the last 2 months telling everyone this was a Trump hoax I’m sure many liberals would have the same attitude based on misinformation right now.  And the left leaning media HAS been reporting this in a sensationalist style trying to hype for ratings imo.  That’s no better and spreads panic and now you can’t buy toilet paper!

The real problem imo is our media just plain sucks.  Both sides.  The fact that there are sides to “news” is the problem!  The news has become propaganda on both sides and because of that we’ve lost trust in information.  It’s a serious problem and this current situation highlights that.  

Im sorry my initial post came off the way it did.  The way I said it was wrong.  The larger issue here isn’t one political side but that our media became more entertainment and  partisan propaganda than news and its hurting us...now especially. 

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is an observation based on the statistics as they stand to date.  I am hearing two conflicting statements that no one seems to be piecing together.  I see the fatality rate listed somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.  But i also hear a lot of people saying there are far more undiagnosed cases than the numbers reflect.  So assuming all deaths related to the virus are reported (which seems reasonable) but a large number of cases go undiagnosed (due to mild symptoms, no symptoms or are simply resting and recovering as if they had any other cold or virus) then I’d estimate that the death rate is closer to that of the common flu (one tenth of one percent).  I don’t see how this logical conclusion is not being trumpeted by everyone.  Taking the craziest prediction i have heard of 150 million Americans getting the Wuhan Red Death. Then that would equal 150,000 deaths.  Just an opinion, but it doesn’t hurt to have perspective in difficult times.

We simply don’t know the actual death rate.  We know that it kills roughly 3% of actual confirmed cases but, as you say, there are certainly many undiagnosed cases out there.  But it’s prudent to assume that this is many times worse than the flu and act accordingly.  

And this is about much more than the death rate.  About 20% of confirmed cases end up requiring hospitalization, and about 5% require ventilators/respirators.  That would put a catastrophic strain on our hospitals resulting in some unnecessary deaths.  People are dying in Italy that could otherwise be saved because doctors have to choose which ones get scarce hospital resources.   We need to avoid that.

We need to assume the worst and plan accordingly.  Not hope for the best.  IMHO.  

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I applilogize for how my statement came off. Please give me a chance to fully explain. 

Stupid isn’t confined to any political ideology. And you by no means fall into that category.  I know your political leanings and I respect that and have no issue with it.  I have good friends who are conservative. 

My criticism wasn’t aimed at conservatives, it was aimed at conservative media that for some reason (maybe they saw this as a threat to Trumps re-election) spent months telling people this was a hoax or a liberal conspiracy to hurt Trump. I think that is a problem now in trying to convince everyone to make personal sacrifices for the larger good. If people think this is a hoax they aren’t going to alter their behaviors. That message by some right wing media was irresponsible imo.  That’s not the fault of the people who got that message.  And liberals would fall prey to the same type of ploy.  I’m not ignorant that there are similar issues on the left.  I’ve seen liberal memes based on lies spread also.  I get irked by CNN and MSNBC when they are trying too hard to attack the right instead of just conducting a fair interview and reporting news.  I was mad the other day when CNN had Pence on and wasted the whole time trying to get shots in about Trumps stumbles at the PC rather than ask substantive questions about the current situation.  Had the liberal media spent the last 2 months telling everyone this was a Trump hoax I’m sure many liberals would have the same attitude based on misinformation right now.  And the left leaning media HAS been reporting this in a sensationalist style trying to hype for ratings imo.  That’s no better and spreads panic and now you can’t buy toilet paper!

The real problem imo is our media just plain sucks.  Both sides.  The fact that there are sides to “news” is the problem!  The news has become propaganda on both sides and because of that we’ve lost trust in information.  It’s a serious problem and this current situation highlights that.  

Im sorry my initial post came off the way it did.  The way I said it was wrong.  The larger issue here isn’t one political side but that our media became more entertainment and  partisan propaganda than news and its hurting us...now especially. 

Good post.  We need to respond to this threat as we would to an attack on our country and band together to fight it.   I think most eveyday Americans understand this and are acting responsibly.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is an observation based on the statistics as they stand to date.  I am hearing two conflicting statements that no one seems to be piecing together.  I see the fatality rate listed somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.  But i also hear a lot of people saying there are far more undiagnosed cases than the numbers reflect.  So assuming all deaths related to the virus are reported (which seems reasonable) but a large number of cases go undiagnosed (due to mild symptoms, no symptoms or are simply resting and recovering as if they had any other cold or virus) then I’d estimate that the death rate is closer to that of the common flu (one tenth of one percent).  I don’t see how this logical conclusion is not being trumpeted by everyone.  Taking the craziest prediction i have heard of 150 million Americans getting the Wuhan Red Death. Then that would equal 150,000 deaths.  Just an opinion, but it doesn’t hurt to have perspective in difficult times.

The mortality rate is no doubt lower. But that’s true of most viruses because we never have a true number of all cases. Even the flu, how many people go undiagnosed each year. The real mortality rate is likely lower for that also. 

The real issue isn’t necessarily the mortality rate though. It’s preventing a sudden spike is cases that would collapse our healthcare system. Then people can die of other things due to lack of medical care. Because we have no vaccine and no natural immunity in the population to this it’s dangerous for that reason. It can spread rapidly and get lots of people sick at once over burdening our system. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You mean like a certain Russian collusion conspiracy?  Or that nonsense about a presidential campaign being spied on?  Or about a certain dossier of alarming and embarrassing accusations being funded by a certain political opponent? 

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem. 

[smokeybandit]

Is there evidence that 20% of cases need hospitalization here in America?

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mortality rate is no doubt lower. But that’s true of most viruses because we never have a true number of all cases. Even the flu, how many people go undiagnosed each year. The real mortality rate is likely lower for that also. 

The real issue isn’t necessarily the mortality rate though. It’s preventing a sudden spike is cases that would collapse our healthcare system. Then people can die of other things due to lack of medical care. Because we have no vaccine and no natural immunity in the population to this it’s dangerous for that reason. It can spread rapidly and get lots of people sick at once over burdening our system. 

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

We can handle the virus. We cannot handle selfish, ignorant pigs hoarding things though. We need to start rationing supplies like we did in World War II, or else we're going to keep seeing losers walk out with ten carts full of toilet paper and bread, leaving none for anyone else. Babies are missing formula, people can't find pet food... I can't even find diapers for my son. Stores around here are still out of many basic items like meat, water and toiletries.

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We can handle the virus. We cannot handle selfish, ignorant pigs hoarding things though. We need to start rationing supplies like we did in World War II, or else we're going to keep seeing losers walk out with ten carts full of toilet paper and bread, leaving none for anyone else. Babies are missing formula, people can't find pet food... I can't even find diapers for my son. Stores around here are still out of many basic items like meat, water and toiletries.

I hoping in 9-10 months we can all make this post because a slow moving coastal is savaging our area with 2+ inch an hour rates for 48 hours.  It’s still a weather board so i can dream lol

[jaydreb]

19 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Is there evidence that 20% of cases need hospitalization here in America?

That’s the number that was cited by the Task Force at yesterday’s press conference.  It’s based on cases around the world.  

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is an observation based on the statistics as they stand to date.  I am hearing two conflicting statements that no one seems to be piecing together.  I see the fatality rate listed somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.  But i also hear a lot of people saying there are far more undiagnosed cases than the numbers reflect.  So assuming all deaths related to the virus are reported (which seems reasonable) but a large number of cases go undiagnosed (due to mild symptoms, no symptoms or are simply resting and recovering as if they had any other cold or virus) then I’d estimate that the death rate is closer to that of the common flu (one tenth of one percent).  I don’t see how this logical conclusion is not being trumpeted by everyone.  Taking the craziest prediction i have heard of 150 million Americans getting the Wuhan Red Death. Then that would equal 150,000 deaths.  Just an opinion, but it doesn’t hurt to have perspective in difficult times.

Nobody, not even our most senior epidemiologist Dr Fauci, thinks this is close to 0.1%. The lowest recorded in any country is South Korea at 0.7%, and they do SUPER widespread testing and likely have the best sample. However - this is a very rough case fatality rate done by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of cases.

This is not the best way to do it, because it takes about 3 weeks from infection to die from this thing. The right way is to divide the total number of deaths by the total number of cases 3 weeks ago.

 

But even then it's not so simple. How many factors are bringing it down (undiagnosed asymptomatic), how many are bringing it up (over capacity health care system, which increases fatalities dramatically, hence "flatten the curve"). PhDs will be earned determining the case fatality ratio on this. Estimates seem to range from 0.7% (asymptomatic carriers, elderly die first, fatality rate drops) at the absolute lowest to 5.6% at the absolute highest (over capacity health care system, 3 week lag time in deaths). 

 

No matter what, it's not going to be "just the flu".

 

Do your part and help flatten the curve so that we trend as close to that 0.7% as possible.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

[ErinInTheSky]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

I was pretty hopeful with respect to weather, but what's going on in Florida and Louisiana has kinda dashed that hope for me.