March Banter 2020

[splashman]

Been a lurker here for years because I can't hold a candle to the weather knowledge in this community - but wanted to share the best write up I have read to date on this and why we should be taking it very seriously (like yesterday): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You dont even know if he had covid19.  Might've died of a heart attack or car wreck.

LOL.

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, splashman said:

Been a lurker here for years because I can't hold a candle to the weather knowledge in this community - but wanted to share the best write up I have read to date on this and why we should be taking it very seriously (like yesterday): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

My last day as a teacher for awhile, so I took the opportunity to educate my students on the need to “flatten the curve.” Not one of them admitted to knowing what the term meant beforehand, but after our discussion, all agreed that in spite that their chances of serious illness is slim, they should do all they can to avoid getting it.

[mappy]

 

[CAPE]

For those who insist on comparing COVID-19 to the flu-

Quote

Aches and pains, sore throat, fever – although they may feel similar to those suffering from their symptoms, the novel coronavirus is not the same as the seasonal flu, experts stressed Wednesday.

COVID-19, the illness caused by coronavirus, proves deadly in around 3.5 percent of confirmed cases.

While this is not the same as its mortality rate, given many people may be infected but not realise it, it is significantly higher than seasonal flu, which typically kills 0.1 percent of patients.

"There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare," said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.

"That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation."

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

And we aren't even close to sniffing a vaccine at this point.

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

For those who insist on comparing COVID-19 to the flu-

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

And we aren't even close to sniffing a vaccine at this point.

Nasal vaccines are generally less effective than shots.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Nasal vaccines are generally less effective than shots.

Loving that FCPS is now closed through the 14th of April lol.  Lots of distance learning looks like

[JakkelWx]

All schools in Delaware have now closed for 2 weeks.

[EastCoast NPZ]

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s almost as prolific as brining operations in advance of some of our car toppers

 

Lol.  I'm sure that's good for the watershed.  

[nw baltimore wx]

Holy heck. I just got a mosquito bite! We are all worried about Covid 19 and I get Ebola!

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Loving that FCPS is now closed through the 14th of April lol.  Lots of distance learning looks like

My wife isn’t 100% looking forward to having both our girls at home all day for a month (it’s not easy on the weekends for a few hours!), but she did tell my 1st grader that there will be lots of arts and crafts, with interspersed math and reading, while she’s home!

[smokeybandit]

China is already back in business.  Italy is the new ground zero with Spain not far behind.  Then the USA is another week or two behind them to hit their peak

[ErinInTheSky]

Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

I’m glad that you’re feeling better, though I think it’s absurd that you weren’t tested.
 

Hopefully it was something else, but either way, really glad to hear that you’re on the mend.

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Just wanted to check in with all of y'all. I'm OK. Still haven't gotten tested but I have almost fully recovered. Life goes on. I've stocked up on supplies and am ready to ride this out for the next month with my son. Hope all are well.

Glad to hear you're feeling better!  And I pray your son doesn't get whatever you had.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Glad to hear you're feeling better!  And I pray your son doesn't get whatever you had.

I honestly think I got it from him. He recovered very fast though.

 

I stocked up before the madhouse rush so I'm good for a long time.

[yoda]

Was at Giant earlier... milk and bread were running low... is there a snowstorm coming I dont know about? 

But really... lots of people were at the grocery store even at 9/10pm at night and their carts were all nearly full with alot of things

[showmethesnow]

Kind of ironic. We are now putting in place measures to stop the spread by creating social distancing and yet everyone is now congregating in Super Markets/Food stores etc... stocking up on supplies to ride out the storm. Think chances are pretty good we end up seeing a sharp spike in the next week or so from this.

[smokeybandit]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Kind of ironic. We are now putting in place measures to stop the spread by creating social distancing and yet everyone is now congregating in Super Markets/Food stores etc... stocking up on supplies to ride out the storm. Think chances are pretty good we end up seeing a sharp spike in the next week or so from this.

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Shutting down the schools will cause a spike, too. Because now instead of kids giving it to kids, they're going to give it to their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents/older neighbors since not all parents can just take off work to watch their kids.

That is another aspect, the children, in particular the teenagers. Going to be very difficult to keep them at home for such an extended period of time without them sneaking out and joining up with friends. 

[smokeybandit]

And those kids are going to be less likely to be washing their hands while out playing/hanging with friends as they would at school

[jaydreb]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus

 

[NorthArlington101]

And those kids are going to be less likely to be washing their hands while out playing/hanging with friends as they would at school

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

[ErinInTheSky]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

Yup. If you keep schools open, kids become a vector of transmission between families and kind of makes the whole shutting other things down absolutely pointless. It's a vulnerability in our system to flatten the curve. You have to reduce human interaction as much as feasible to slow the progress of the glut that is about to clobber hospitals.

[NorthArlington101]

Yup. If you keep schools open, kids become a vector of transmission between families and kind of makes the whole shutting other things down absolutely pointless. It's a vulnerability in our system to flatten the curve. You have to reduce human interaction as much as feasible to slow the progress of the glut that is about to clobber hospitals.

Yep! Thanks for the assist. I shouldn’t write posts two minutes after I wake up.

 

Having a virus run through a school system is the fastest way to make sure it ends up absolutely everywhere in the community. Kids spread germs like crazy, and in the case of these disease especially they are likely carriers. Shutting down the schools will not cause a spike.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Going to disagree with your above points. Shutting down the schools has the effect of not having kids spread things to teachers, janitorial staff, and other kids. It is largely up to parents to wrangle their children and make them wash their hands/keep them home (which is their job in many ways!) — keeping them home 100% decreases virus spread.

 

Why do you think kids stay home from school when sick originally? To decrease the spread of illness and put them in a better spot to recover. When I was sick in K-12 (only a couple years ago) I would stay home as to rest and drink lots of fluids.

 

The whole point of social distancing is to make sure that if you are going to infect someone, it is only your family.

Never said keeping them in school was the better option for controlling the spread. Just pointed out the fact that we will still have issues with them being home though it will be to a much lesser degree. And the problem here is that from what I understand roughly 80% of people experience minor if not no symptoms and yet are still contagious. So how many kids are going to think they are fine and head on out the door?

[NorthArlington101]

Never said keeping them in school was the better option for controlling the spread. Just pointed out the fact that we will still have issues with them being home though it will be to a much lesser degree. And the problem here is that from what I understand roughly 80% of people experience minor if not no symptoms and yet are still contagious. So how many kids are going to think they are fine and head on out the door?

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. My mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

[JakkelWx]

"It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds."

- The Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

There is a serious lack of hospital beds in the U.S according to The Hill, which would probably spell disaster for the U.S. Trump admitted a few years back that he cut back on the pandemic response team, apparently as well: 

 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

"It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds."

- The Hill

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

There is a serious lack of hospital beds in the U.S according to The Hill, which would probably spell disaster for the U.S. Trump admitted a few years back that he cut back on the pandemic response team, apparently as well: 

 

It's a 100+ year old solution, but it works:

 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What do you define as kids? I was (and still an) particularly non-rebellious, so if my parents told me to stay inside, I would. I could have video games to play if I craved social interaction. My mom is telling my 16 year old sister to stay inside and to not hang out with friends, so she will. Isn’t the job of parents to keep their kids safe? I guess if older kids are going to climb out the windows and not listen to their parents, you’re right, the issue isn’t completely solved. Still better than having 500-3,000 of them locked in a small school building.

Guess you are one of the well behaved younger adults.  Teenagers in general are rebellious as they learn their limits, even those that have had a solid up bringing. That said, schools had to be closed even though it may bring up other issues. Was the far better option then allowing the sharp unmanageable increase we saw in Italy. Keep the flat curve and we should get through this with minimal damage.