March Banter 2020

[jaydreb]

9 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

As bad as it’s been, it hasn’t been hospital bad. I actually think today I may be turning a corner thank god.

Good to hear.  Honestly, you should just assume you have Corona and avoid contact with people as much as possible.  A test would be great from an information standpoint, but it’s not like it would change much.  There’s no special treatment or medication that you would get.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Good to hear.  Honestly, you should just assume you have Corona and avoid contact with people as much as possible.  A test would be great from an information standpoint, but it’s not like it would change much.  There’s no special treatment or medication that you would get.  

Thankfully my work can be done online. I haven’t completely isolated myself but for the most part I have. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Really don't like giving advice when it comes to other people's money especially when it comes to the Stock market (God knows I have been wrong on occasion). But you might want to reconsider dumping most if not all into the C Fund at this time (maybe 50% into the C if you really want to gamble). Been playing the dips for quite awhile now and have done markedly well over the the normal returns on the S&P. What we are seeing now isn't a typical dip. I think the market stands to lose at least another 10-15% and those are probably optimistic as it wouldn't surprise me if  we may be looking at a 45-50% drop when all is said and done. As we are seeing the country is starting to shut down and this will most likely pick up in the next week or so. This alone would hammer the Stock Market but we are also seeing an oil war in progress which doesn't look to end soon which also would typically drag the market down. Pretty bad combo (There are also a couple of other things I have been keeping an eye on (Global tensions, aggressions, over hyping/sensationalism by the media)) So though we will likely see temporary positive spikes here and there in the market with any good news the underlining issues still remain and probably will so for the next several weeks/month at least. 

I myself right now have our funds safely parked in the G Fund. And though the returns are minimal at least they are returning something and not taking huge chunks away. What I will be looking for is when the market starts stabilizing where we aren't seeing these massive swings. When we can get the swings within roughly a point consistently from day to day trading over a period of time is when I will start considering dumping back into the C fund. I might lose a couple of points on the rebound by waiting for some stability but with the market shedding 24+% at this time there is plenty to work with in that regard. *** The two transfer limit (3 transfers if the last is going back into the G) per month plays into my thinking as well but that gets a little convoluted.

The vast majority of my money is still in the G fund. I was talking about setting my contribution allocations going forward (which I've got set to nearly all C fund now)- I will be dollar cost averaging all the way down.

I don't think anyone knows where the bottom will be (I certainly don't) and attempting to time the market and "look for the bottom" are not going to work. I do know that the last few years have been ridiculously overvalued, which is why I sat it out. I've been waiting for this bear market. And to think, just a few months ago I was told the exact opposite- "You're still sitting in the G Fund? You're missing out on this historic bull market!" 

I'm totally fine with a 50% drop, the lower the better. I have a lot of time... unless you're going to argue we're Japan in the 1980's, in which case we're all screwed anyway so it doesn't matter.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

I don’t want this to sound at all political, but around 60,000,000 people got the swine flu in the US alone.  I don’t think excellent leadership had much to do with it.  We were just fortunate that it was not as severe an illness as coronavirus and, as you say, vaccines provided some limited protections.  I think our government and society in general is a mess with these things, no matter who is in charge.  

Oh, I agree...and I wasn't trying to get overly political, sorry.  This country has done much better before with other crises for sure.  But it doesn't help to have mixed messages from the top (or at least near the top), people defying what experts are saying, or flat out stating things that aren't true.  That doesn't help anyone.  It is true that sometimes, we manage in spite of poor leadership, so maybe you're right in some ways that it might not matter so much who's in charge (up to a point!).  There's an element of "catch up" with anything...hell, just look at major weather events for one thing.  But we'd hope to refine that over the years.  As for the Swine Flu thing...from what I've heard that was more like an actual flu virus, so there was some more "familiarity" (for lack of a better word), and perhaps easier to gin up a vaccine.  I remember getting the vaccine at some point shortly after they came out with it.

I guess my main point (or one of them) in my other post is that I don't have much of a problem with these cancellations and postponements, advice to avoid big crowds, etc...even though on the surface it seems like "overkill" perhaps.  Better to be inconvenienced by that rather than have something worse happen.  Now, as I write this, I found out that Gov. Hogan just ordered all MD schools to close for two weeks starting this upcoming Monday.  My daughter is in MoCo, and this has been a possibility for a little while now...so not overly surprising.  I know many schools have been planning some online stuff, at least to mitigate some of the lost time.  A friend of mine in the Atlanta area just told me they closed Cobb County schools for the rest of the school year!  I'm sure many, many locations will be having summer classes to make up at least some time. 

[NorthArlington101]

I’ve got a ton of time (about to turn 20!) but the stock market drops have been painful. Not that I called this in advance, but I thought about pulling out two weeks ago and was advised against it. Feel a little dumb. I’ve got chump change in compared to most of you, but my slush-fund-to-get-me-rich-by-30 is sad.

I’m prepared to buy the dip in 2-3 weeks.

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve got a ton of time (about to turn 20!) but the stock market drops have been painful. Not that I called this in advance, but I thought about pulling out two weeks ago and was advised against it. Feel a little dumb. I’ve got chump change in compared to most of you, but my slush-fund-to-get-me-rich-by-30 is sad.

I’m prepared to buy the dip in 2-3 weeks.

If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

34 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Thankfully my work can be done online. I haven’t completely isolated myself but for the most part I have. 

Hey supernova...I hope you get better, and take good care of yourself OK!!  Stay safe...

[Scraff]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All four of us are going to be in re house together for at least 2 weeks. Send me booze please. @Scraff I might need your help urgently 

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

[NorthArlington101]

If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

yep. It’s just frustrating. But I definitely plan to buy, just not for probably another three weeks. I’m not optimistic.

When we get there, it’s a fire sale!!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

Pretty much...if you've got many years before retiring, you can withstand even some big market drops and swings.  I'm a fed. employee myself, actually put everything into one of their "L" funds which sort of "automatically" adjusts the investments as your projected retirement year approaches.  I'm not exactly the most knowledgeable on these things other than basic stuff, so I don't tinker much...and yeah, kinda lazy (I've heard some refer to the "L" fund as the "lazy fund", haha!).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

Oh man...you're like ready to be holed up for awhile with all that stuff!  Even the top shelf is bulging under the weight!  I'd be glad to help you lighten the load there...

[Icefishingrocks]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

Nicely done!  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

You know what scares me more than the virus... large groups of crazy, ignorant Americans stuck at home with nothing to do, looking for someone to blame.

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You know what scares me more than the virus... large groups of crazy, ignorant Americans stuck at home with nothing to do, looking for someone to blame.

You think there might be a spike in the birth rate, in say, 9 or so months from now?

[CAPE]

^At least we could offset all the old/sick people that will die from this affliction. Wouldn't want to see a reduction in population. Not enough people in this country now.

[George BM]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You think there might be a spike in the birth rate, in say, 9 or so months from now?

Absolutely definitely.

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

It’s insane that they won’t/can’t test. Absolutely f’ing insane.

Sorry that you’re down for the count, but I hope you get through it soon!

[ErinInTheSky]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s insane that they won’t/can’t test. Absolutely f’ing insane.

Sorry that you’re down for the count, but I hope you get through it soon!

Thanks Mattie. I’ll be fine. Today was better than yesterday so I think I’m finally turning the corner. WHATEVER it is I have, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

I read somewhere that shortness of breath is a sign.  That's the extent of my medical knowledge.

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The vast majority of my money is still in the G fund. I was talking about setting my contribution allocations going forward (which I've got set to nearly all C fund now)- I will be dollar cost averaging all the way down.

I don't think anyone knows where the bottom will be (I certainly don't) and attempting to time the market and "look for the bottom" are not going to work. I do know that the last few years have been ridiculously overvalued, which is why I sat it out. I've been waiting for this bear market. And to think, just a few months ago I was told the exact opposite- "You're still sitting in the G Fund? You're missing out on this historic bull market!" 

I'm totally fine with a 50% drop, the lower the better. I have a lot of time... unless you're going to argue we're Japan in the 1980's, in which case we're all screwed anyway so it doesn't matter.

Went to a financial planner that recommended that based on my age/retirement dates and risk tolerance, I should shift to the L2050 fund which is obviously more aggressive.  He said that at near the market top.  I made the realignment this afternoon.  Saved 20%+ on the way down.  If it goes down more, eh, don't care. 

[George BM]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Thanks Mattie. I’ll be fine. Today was better than yesterday so I think I’m finally turning the corner. WHATEVER it is I have, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

I echo everyone else on here in saying I hope you make a full recovery. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Address?  I'll be over in an hour and help you put a big dent in that stash lol. Though... I do have a bit of a cough and light fever ...hope that's not a problem. 

I live in downtown Venice. Text me when you get here. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
 

60 million plus cases, 12000 plus us deaths.

I don’t remember anything shutting down. Does anyone else?

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
 

60 million plus cases, 12000 plus us deaths.

I don’t remember anything shutting down. Does anyone else?

I think we will be lucky to get out of this with 12k plus us deaths. It’ll take serious quarantine measures.

[BristowWx]

Just now, supernovasky said:

I think we will be lucky to get out of this with 12k plus us deaths. It’ll take serious quarantine measures.

You think more than 12k deaths from this in the US?  I find that hard to believe considering China has leveled off new cases.  I guess time will tell.  

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You think more than 12k deaths from this in the US?  I find that hard to believe considering China has leveled off new cases.  I guess time will tell.  

China leveled off cases with massive testing, the most comprehensive quarantine ever established, and quarantining all incoming people for 14 days.

 

also... Hubei can’t go back to normal. They are still massively locked down 6 weeks later.

 

and... China lucked out in a way by being the first country because when they established their measures, they could focus on one single area. We aren’t so lucky. We will have Hubei like situations all over our country.

 

 

[ErinInTheSky]

Let me also add... during the whole outbreak, they got masks sent from all other countries and made their own along with other PPE. Now the supply chain is all kinds of messed up and we can’t even get the chemical required to extract the viral RNA for testing.

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/rna-extraction-kits-for-covid-19-tests-are-in-short-supply-in-us-67250

[nj2va]

Grocery stores are legit madhouses today...I stocked up before today but friends have sent pictures...lines to get in some stores...empty shelves...

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Let me also add... during the whole outbreak, they got masks sent from all other countries and made their own along with other PPE. Now the supply chain is all kinds of messed up and we can’t even get the chemical required to extract the viral RNA for testing.

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/rna-extraction-kits-for-covid-19-tests-are-in-short-supply-in-us-67250

I did read 648 new cases in Hubel...but falling elsewhere in China.  That is if you believe Chinese data and reporting. I don’t actually.  But I still hope not 12K US deaths.  I agree we have a long way to go before we are in the mend with new cases and without enough testing thousands more US citizens may have it and not know.  My daughter has type 1 diabetes so I am nervous for her more than the rest of my family. We will pray.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, nj2va said:

Grocery stores are legit madhouses today...I stocked up before today but friends have sent pictures...lines to get in some stores...empty shelves...

My wife just returned from a 3 hour trek to BJs in Gainesville.  Shelves picked clean, arguments between patrons, and no chips...I said it no chips..not one bag of Doritos..nothing 

[ErinInTheSky]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did read 648 new cases in Hubel...but falling elsewhere in China.  That is if you believe Chinese data and reporting. I don’t actually.  But I still hope not 12K US deaths.  I agree we have a long way to go before we are in the mend with new cases and without enough testing thousands more US citizens may have it and not know.  My daughter has type 1 diabetes so I am nervous for her more than the rest of my family. We will pray.  

I really just hope we can get the testing up soon.