CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Rumbling here too. 0.55" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Rain has cleared in Timonium but that was definitely a nice little spring system, saw some lightning driving on 695. No one at Meadowood regional park really yet but we’ll see how that changes now that it’s drying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Impressive line moving through now with booming thunder. Absolutely pouring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Looks like that's it. 0.88" and 4.3" for the month now. Hopefully models are correct and my yard stays dry from now through Monday at least. I think I know how this is going to go as we head into mid summer though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Tomorrow should be interesting from a temperature forecast standpoint...The GFS has us all near 80 at 2pm tomorrow while the 3K NAM has Baltimore at 51F lol. Somethings gonna bust hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Tomorrow should be interesting from a temperature forecast standpoint...The GFS has us all near 80 at 2pm tomorrow while the 3K NAM has Baltimore at 51F lol. Somethings gonna bust hard Yeah it will be a challenge to figure out how far north the warm front gets(and how soon). Looks like there will be a pretty large temp gradient somewhere through our area or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Lightning struck a church in Baltimore. https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/28/steeple-catches-fire-at-urban-bible-fellowship-church-in-baltimore/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Almost an inch of rain so far with lightning and thunder a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Can hear the thunder in the distance with the line approaching Timonium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Can hear the thunder in the distance with the line approaching Timonium Another round here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 0.76" total, forgot what heavy rain sounded like... 4.0" for the month. I'm sure this has been posted before, but this is a nice generalized map to track modeled water availability: https://labs.waterdata.usgs.gov/estimated-availability/#/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 No more dark rainy days during quarantine please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Balmy 74 in Deep Creek. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Balmy 74 in Deep Creek. ...With fairly decent storms to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 The latest from LWX: (snip) SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb. A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence. After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow...hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details. Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by Monday night. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Balmy 74 in Deep Creek. Been 50 all day here. Tomorrow will be interesting. Going to be a battle zone with the warm front and the low level maritime air mass in place. The warm front should win out later in the day here I would think. Expecting to see low 70s by late afternoon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Mount Holly AFD is a tad comical wrt to forecast temps tomorrow. Looks like a high bust potential.. A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Another yucky morning up in Timonium, clearly the warm front won’t go north enough to get us into the 70s and 80s up here like ol’ Berk predicted. Anyway, it’s kept the park at low capacity this weekend at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 50 and drizzle here. Temp has not budged since early morning yesterday. Forecast is still for low 70s here this afternoon, but high bust potential. I would love a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 50 and drizzle here. Temp has not budged since early morning yesterday. Forecast is still for low 70s here this afternoon, but high bust potential. I would love a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s. Yea - rock steady atm. However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N. Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am. Way too early in the year for that. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Just now, RDM said: Yea - rock steady atm. However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N. Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am. Way too early in the year for that. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m Its up to 52 here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, RDM said: Yea - rock steady atm. However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N. Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am. Way too early in the year for that. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m That's a cool link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 This is the wedge of cool air from hell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 I’m back in Arlington. Seems likely the warm front will win out here this afternoon thankfully. Currently 55 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 What was a dead calm morning now showing some sign of life. Bit of a south wind picking up here in Reisterstown and fog is breaking up a bit. Really hope we break out, my lawn is awake and the yard needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Looking likely that some of us will break out. Would love to get out of the house in the yard or a bike ride before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 2 hours ago, RDM said: Yea - rock steady atm. However, you can see the warm air is just below Richmond and coming N. Temps currently in the 80's in NC, at 11am. Way too early in the year for that. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.3;-80.0;5&l=temperature-2m Agree - just stumbled across it. Been using Windy.com for a long time, which has similar graphics. Looks like the 80F line is approaching Richmond now. If we get those higher temps and dp up this way, it may make the potential for later today interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Just went for a long walk around the neighborhood and couldn’t will the sun out yet. Still socked in with clouds and 53. A few days back forecast high was 69. We will be lucky to make it to 59 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just went for a long walk around the neighborhood and couldn’t will the sun out yet. Still socked in with clouds and 53. A few days back forecast high was 69. We will be lucky to make it to 59 up here. I think we're good even up in Baltimore County. Note on the satellite how there's low level flow now switching out of the south. As the mid level junk is clearing out the lower level fog and such is eroding in southern Maryland. It'll take longer than forecast, and that may be due to the models lacking daya from less commercial aircraft. Until this whole COVID thing blows over I'd take the low end of guidance and lean more towards nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just went for a long walk around the neighborhood and couldn’t will the sun out yet. Still socked in with clouds and 53. A few days back forecast high was 69. We will be lucky to make it to 59 up here. We will spike before the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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