Upstate/Eastern New York

[DeltaT13]

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

 

Whats your thoughts on Lake Erie waves and seiche. The inlaws live in the port maitland area of Lake Erie in Haldimand County and got slammed by the fall storm. Think the waves and seiche will be similar? 3 weeks ago I bought a Kestrel weather meter so im excited to try it out in a storm and not just in my suburban backyard haha. 

It will be a very significant seiche with moderate to severe flooding if todays 12GFS verified. 

1. The lake is definitively higher now than it was in the fall. 
2. The lack of significant ice all winter allowed the shores to get battered more than normal so dunes and breakwalls may be in very poor shape right now.  In the fall, things tend to be as beefed up and as good of shape as any time as Summer has much lighter winds and conducive weather for repair.  
3. This storm is also long duration which spells bad news for many in vulnerable locations.  I would be taking action now if I had a place with any sort of risk.

[mississaugasnow]

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It will be a very significant seiche with moderate to severe flooding if todays 12GFS verified. 

1. The lake is definitively higher now than it was in the fall. 
2. The lack of significant ice all winter allowed the shores to get battered more than normal so dunes and breakwalls may be in very poor shape right now.  In the fall, things tend to be as beefed up and as good of shape as any time as Summer has much lighter winds and conducive weather for repair.  
3. This storm is also long duration which spells bad news for many in vulnerable locations.  I would be taking action now if I had a place with any sort of risk.

 

Thanks, appreciate the response. Im going to try to get videos this time around as the fall storm peaked after dark. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite impressive!

[Buckeyes_Suck]

5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

This storm has the ear marks of a real doozy.  Things working in its favor include a real nice pocket of isallobaric pressure rises sliding through WNY and the fact that its still deepening significantly as it passes by to our NW. 

Things working against it would be timing of the frontal passage, it currently looks to occur a tad too late to fully utilize diurnal mixing when the steepest lapse rates begin to move through; this only needs to change by a few hours to make a big difference though.  High wind events in late Spring have the ability to really tap the high sun angle and create very deep mixing bringing down the strongest winds.   

The Niagara frontier is incredibly battle hardened over the past 5 years with over a dozen events with winds above 60mph, several above 70mph, and one above 80mph, so that works in our favor of clearing out the weak and damaged trees and limbs, thus limiting damage.  On the other hand, a lot of trees have budded out significantly and that adds weight and resistance, plus anything over 70mph starts to take down even the strongest trees. Antecedent conditions also aren't overly wet, but we might get a good soaking in the warm sector which will certain soften things up.  

A very fun and exciting storm to be tracking after winter sputtered away to nothing....

One of these days all of these dead ash trees are going to come down in bunches. Most of mine are still standing but have been dead a couple seasons now. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great...More of my fence is going to blow away...

You’re still under warranty right? Mine was covered for a year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

You’re still under warranty right? Mine was covered for a year. 

Got it done from a friend of a friend. Going to small claims court as soon as this ban is lifted. The actual fence material is under a 30 year warranty.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got it done from a friend of a friend. Going to small claims court as soon as this ban is lifted. The actual fence material is under a 30 year warranty.

I had to do the same. Judge scolded the company for wasting everyone’s time. They did make me get it fixed on my dollar first before I could take them to court. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I had to do the same. Judge scolded the company for wasting everyone’s time. They did make me get it fixed on my dollar first before I could take them to court. 

We have to have a discussion about this in PM. I've been stressing/planning about this for over 6 months. How did you get the company to pay up? I filed with better business bureau and they shockingly responded to me personally but never to the BBB. I called the manufacture of the fence and sent them 10 videos and 50 pictures. She sent back a 2 page document showing how everything was installed incorrectly.

[DeltaT13]

55 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

One of these days all of these dead ash trees are going to come down in bunches. Most of mine are still standing but have been dead a couple seasons now. 

Great point. There are literally 100s of millions of dead/soon to be dead ash tree across this state. They will definitely account for a lot of damage in the coming years

[Buckeyes_Suck]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We have to have a discussion about this in PM. I've been stressing/planning about this for over 6 months. How did you get the company to pay up? I filed with better business bureau and they shockingly responded to me personally but never to the BBB. I called the manufacture of the fence and sent them 10 videos and 50 pictures. She sent back a 2 page document showing how everything was installed incorrectly.

For mine they had set the post incorrectly. So when I had it repaired I took a ton of pictures and I think I found a diagram online showing how they should have been set. The posts were so far off center of the hole they were surrounded by concrete on three sides. Im pretty sure I submitted the photos when I paid the $15 or whatever for the case. For yours I’d probably take pictures of your install combine with the install manual to show it was correct, and let the judge decide. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

For mine they had set the post incorrectly. So when I had it repaired I took a ton of pictures and I think I found a diagram online showing how they should have been set. The posts were so far off center of the hole they were surrounded by concrete on three sides. Im pretty sure I submitted the photos when I paid the $15 or whatever for the case. For yours I’d probably take pictures of your install combine with the install manual to show it was correct, and let the judge decide. 

Yeah my posts weren't installed correctly, the gate was not installed correctly (They admitted it), the entire fence is crooked, their response was its straight as humanly possible....Its so crooked that when we had a new survey done it shows how crooked the fence is. I provided them with a survey and they didn't even keep the fence on my property line, its 10" on someones elses property. In addition to this panels fall off during every windstorm and the right side is leaning about to fall over to the neighbors yard. I paid $7500 for it and I could have done a better job. I had 3 estimates to fix it and each one was $4-5,000. Basically an entire new install. 

[vortmax]

Looks like some serious wind potential. 

[wolfie09]

This once in a 20 to 30 year storm will have the potential to generate damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph for parts of Western New York Monday afternoon and night,” the weather service said. The highest winds will blow over and near lakes Erie and Ontario, bringing the greatest damage to the areas of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Rochester and Watertown.

 

The Buffalo weather service offered unusually strong warnings ahead of the storm.

“This will be a dangerous situation,” the office said. “Very strong winds will result in numerous downed trees and power lines. EXTENSIVE power outages and property damage are expected.”

To the east, in the Finger Lakes and Central New York, winds are expected to be lower but still strong enough to cause scattered power outages. The weather service has issued hazardous weather alerts for those areas. In Central New York, wind gusts could reach 55 mph on Monday afternoon, which could knock down branches and power lines.

The storm will develop as a strong low pressure system makes a sharp left turn out of the Great Plains and passes directly over Michigan. On the west side will be cold air and heavy snow; Michigan’s Upper Peninsula could see a foot.

[wolfie09]

[Flying MXZ]

On 4/10/2020 at 9:45 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you have 2 barns? That's awesome. 

Yea. The old one is only 20x20. The new one is a bit bigger. Board and batten ordered, just waiting for it to be cut to finish it. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Newest 3k NAM upped the ante even more for BUF for Monday. Previous runs were capping out at 58-60kt gust, 00z has it gusting to 64 kt (74mph) at BUF with 70kt (81mph) gust just east of BUF. I'm getting gas tomorrow for the generator because I have a feeling I'll be using it especially with some trees beginning to leaf out. 

[DeltaT13]

0zGFS is holding serve and actually a touch stronger.  From 18z to 0z Monday ROC is forecast to have a 20mb rise in 6 hours, very impressive!!

[Buckeyes_Suck]

I wonder how this windstorm will compare to spring 2018. I think there were a few 80+ gusts in the area. I vaguely remember a rail car being blown over during that event. 
 

edit: this article says 75 and only a tractor trailer. https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/weather/recapping-wednesdays-windy-weather-that-hit-wny/71-535251788

[lakeeffectkid383]

25 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I wonder how this windstorm will compare to spring 2018. I think there were a few 80+ gusts in the area. I vaguely remember a rail car being blown over during that event. 
 

edit: this article says 75 and only a tractor trailer. https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/weather/recapping-wednesdays-windy-weather-that-hit-wny/71-535251788

Your confusing that event with March 2017... train was derailed in Batavia. Gusted to 81 at ROC. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/03/hurricane-force_wind_gusts_hit_rochester_residents_urged_to_seek_shelter.html

[vortmax]

If it clears out after the CF then it could get quite rough...

[Thinksnow18]

54 minutes ago, vortmax said:

If it clears out after the CF then it could get quite rough...

Yeah that's when the sun is strongest during the day (2 to 5) pm and mixing would accelerate. I'm torn. I stood at Lowe's yesterday (N95 on) and almost purchased a generator. I talked myself our of it...i think I'm arguing with myself now...

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Your confusing that event with March 2017... train was derailed in Batavia. Gusted to 81 at ROC. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/03/hurricane-force_wind_gusts_hit_rochester_residents_urged_to_seek_shelter.html

March 8th, 2017 is one of my top 10 favorite weather events that I personally experienced. Very atypical setup too, extremely strong diurnally driven event the day after the cold front passage, with not a lot of hype leading up to it and then it over performed big time. Just a crushing windstorm. I think we had 5-6 consecutive hours with winds gusts above 60 and obviously that peak gust of 81mph which is my PR.  
 

 

[DeltaT13]

 

[DeltaT13]

What a storm for the UP!

 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

What a storm for the UP!

 

They had to have had a record breaking year up there, just constant snowstorms. Have to be well over 300"

[DeltaT13]

Well the GFS is coming back to earth from its super amplified solutions.  Almost 10mb weaker since the 18z run yesterday.  This is beginning to look like a standard high wind event with minimal impact.  I think NE Ohio to SW NY has the greatest chance of seeing damaging winds as they clear out early enough to take advantage of the high sun angle while the strongest winds are still moving through just off the deck.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

39 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well the GFS is coming back to earth from its super amplified solutions.  Almost 10mb weaker since the 18z run yesterday.  This is beginning to look like a standard high wind event with minimal impact.  I think NE Ohio to SW NY has the greatest chance of seeing damaging winds as they clear out early enough to take advantage of the high sun angle while the strongest winds are still moving through just off the deck.  

Yeah new runs have gust in the mid 50kt range. Pretty good still but not the once in a several year event we were talking about yesterday. My guesses just for fun.

 

BUF 66 mph

IAG 69 mph

ROC 68 mph

Batavia 73 mph

ART 62 mph 

[DeltaT13]

13 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah new runs have gust in the mid 50kt range. Pretty good still but not the once in a several year event we were talking about yesterday. My guesses just for fun.

 

BUF 66 mph

IAG 69 mph

ROC 68 mph

Batavia 73 mph

ART 62 mph 

I’d be thrilled with those numbers, I don’t expect we see many places even crack 60mph anymore. This storm has fizzled its way to a strong wind advisory at this point. The GFS has major issues with over amplifying storms and behaved that way all winter. I never learn. I should know better. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’d be thrilled with those numbers, I don’t expect we see many places even crack 60mph anymore. This storm has fizzled its way to a strong wind advisory at this point. The GFS has major issues with over amplifying storms and behaved that way all winter. I never learn. I should know better. 

Yeah this thing went to crap quick. Yawn. Looks like a snow chance Friday for several runs in a row on the GFS but even it’s own ensembles look like this things gonna slide just to our south and deliver a shot of snow to PA.