wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Ukmet with almost an inch liquid in the form of snow for ksyr, all fantasy but some wrap around flakes possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 European much weaker with the wrap around Precipitation compared to the gfs/ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 A month or so ago this would of held some decent potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 You simply cannot rely on LES this time of year. For anything interesting we need a robust LP to track to our SE. Awful set up in my opinion- would’ve sucked for ROC even in January. TUG maybe.... Opportunities further down the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 At this point I'd be happy just seeing some wintry Precipitation which is a distinct possibility.. Bringing this down to our local level, the digging trough will support low pressure to move through Canada on Thursday. As the low moves east on Thursday, it will drag its cold front across the region. In the wake of the rain showers ahead of the front, much colder air will fill in to the region and linger around through Saturday. Frequent showers will be across the region late Friday through Sunday as a cyclonic wind regime and wrap around moisture on the backside of the low as well as a couple of passages of mid level shortwaves. As hinted at previously, it will be cold enough to cause some of these showers to fall as snow and quite possibly be lake enhances as the temperatures in the low levels support this. In the higher elevations it is quite possible for some snow accumulations during this showery period. Shower activity will decrease some on Saturday and Sunday as the deeper moisture is pulled away from the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Is it too late for KSYR to edge out KROC for Golden Snowball? Let's Do This!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Is it too late for KSYR to edge out KROC for Golden Snowball? Let's Do This!! Syracuse already did, Rochester is getting an asterisk due to measuring incorrectly all season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Syracuse already did, Rochester is getting an asterisk due to measuring incorrectly all season. They were measuring in centimetres and displaying it in inches... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: Is it too late for KSYR to edge out KROC for Golden Snowball? Let's Do This!! My original plan was to go back to PA for Easter. Due to Coronavirus, I am staying here. Does that help to answer your question? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Woke up to a heavy frost this morning, low of 26°, currently we stand at 43° with a forecasted high of 53°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Woke up to a heavy frost this morning, low of 26°, currently we stand at 43° with a forecasted high of 53°.. This weekend intrigues me. I feel all areas will see some flakes but due to how warm the ground is the only areas that have a chance to see any grassy accums are the highest ridges of SW NY and of course the Tug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Yeah the NWS continues to lower the forecast for Friday with a Forecast temp of 40°(yesterday 46°) with R/S showers.. Friday night upper 20s with R/S showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 New York cases down about 500 cases today, deaths up by 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 Why April 29th and not April 30th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 Looks like NYS peak is April 8th https://covid19.healthdata.org/ According to this website we should be good by May 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like NYS peak is April 8th https://covid19.healthdata.org/ According to this website we should be good by May 1st? Even if that's true life as we know it will not return to normal...cuomo stated as much. He basically stated we learned from China and Korea that if it's too soon then we will just introduce more cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Even if that's true life as we know it will not return to normal...cuomo stated as much. He basically stated we learned from China and Korea that if it's too soon then we will just introduce more cases. 2 people in my neighborhood had large parties this weekend with 20-30+ people. With the weather getting nicer, it's going to be next to impossible to prevent this from mass spreading throughout the area. Without a vaccine the only way to beat this thing is with herd immunity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like NYS peak is April 8th https://covid19.healthdata.org/ According to this website we should be good by May 1st? Highly doubt it, my best guess we will see peak on last week of April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 I know it's day 9, but holy cow on that Euro op run today for next Wednesday. 966 mb low over central Michigan. I'm more interested in tracking sun than strong storms this time of year, but that could be a time to keep an eye on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 Opps was posting in wrong thread. Figures the cold shows up in April. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Opps was posting in wrong thread. Figures the cold shows up in April. Normally I want spring weather but with not much happening outside right now, I want to see some historic mid april cold and snow/ice 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Old lady keeps telling me it's going to snow on her b'day Canadian in it's own fantasy world lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 It’s gonna get interesting. Ya gotta thread that needle though. As always, best chances in the hills. Still gotta get it SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Old lady keeps telling me it's going to snow on her b'day Canadian in it's own fantasy world lol No pictures showed up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Hmmm showed up on my end..All nonsense anyway lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Best it has looked all year lol To little too late.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 What could of been..Nam has plenty of synoptic moisture behind this system/front but obviously marginal surface and daytime=White rain/mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 If we can get into some Precipitation Friday night maybe we can get a little white on the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 The moist cyclonic flow grows even colder Thursday night into Friday. This will allow for a further deepening of the mixed layer contributing to a stronger wind gust component, perhaps seeing gusts to near 45 mph at times. Boundary layer temperatures eventually become cold enough to support a change over to snow, especially across higher terrain by mid to late evening. This change over is also quite possible at lower elevations after midnight. 850 mb temperatures get down to about -7C, so we will certainly need to watch out some enhancement east of the lakes. This more wintry precipitation will continue into Friday morning before diurnal influences start to bring more rain into the picture by afternoon, before the precipitation starts a downward trend Friday night. There will likely be at least some snowfall accumulations across the higher terrain Thursday night into Friday morning. Depending on the exact window of best accumulating snow (night vs day), will determine just how much snow will be able to accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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