Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Honestly this is just icing on a 7 layer cake with the main ingredients being chocolate laxative. I mean if we're going to go through an unprecedented time in our lives we may as well just blow the top off this thing. I'm all for it, confused why BGM hasn't thrown up a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 00z NAM spits out .75 QPF frozen subfreezing and sun not involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 00z NAM spits out .75 QPF frozen subfreezing and sun not involved. Are you somewhere else in New York state right now? Isn't Glendale in the New York City area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Are you somewhere else in New York state right now? Isn't Glendale in the New York City area? Yeah, have a house in southeast Deleware county ~2000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Nice. The Catskills are definitely looking really good. At that elevation, you may even hold on to some snow through the day on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Nice. The Catskills are definitely looking really good. At that elevation, you may even hold on to some snow through the day on Saturday! Yeah, last Friday the exposed areas took a hit(as expected) even with moderate snow at 32° but should be a solid dense snowfall to fight Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Many of the 00Z runs are even showing this to be a 3 to 5 inch event across the Syracuse area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Many of the 00Z runs are even showing this to be a 3 to 5 inch event across the Syracuse area. I need just 2-1/2" to get to 90". I say we do it as long as Spring comes by...June? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3rd straight morning with fresh snow covering the ground. Looks like #4 tomorrow. Yesterday's snow made it through the day in the shade. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Syrmax said: I need just 2-1/2" to get to 90". I say we do it as long as Spring comes by...June? June of 2021? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Radar trends look flat and south to me. I don’t see the thruway corridor doing much with this, unfortunately. Eh. Things can always shift 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Syrmax said: I need just 2-1/2" to get to 90". I say we do it as long as Spring comes by...June? Do you think we can take Rochester out of its spot by July? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 NAM isn't backing down this morning. Juiced and subfreezing. Should be a beautiful scene tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM isn't backing down this morning. Juiced and subfreezing. Should be a beautiful scene tomorrow morning. I want you to look at that map and then go to a wide view of the storm over Michigan. This storm is further north not only with the snow shield but also areas of more moderate rates. If you go due west of Buffalo there is moderate snow bands that will effectively cross the buffalo are in about 6 or 7 hours as the LP moves east/ne. These totals are too far south imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I want you to look at that map and then go to a wide view of the storm over Michigan. This storm is further north not only with the snow shield but also areas of more moderate rates. If you go due west of Buffalo there is moderate snow bands that will effectively cross the buffalo are in about 6 or 7 hours as the LP moves east/ne. These totals are too far south imo. Looks pretty close to NAM sim radar if you ask me, if anything NAM is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Looks pretty close to NAM sim radar if you ask me, if anything NAM is underdone. We agree it's under done. I also believe you can move the 2 to 4 inch range smack through and a bit north of Buffalo as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 If this was hitting at night we would be looking at a regionwide 2-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 ART getting some nice puff bombs from the lake: https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/watertown-thompson-park.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If this was hitting at night we would be looking at a regionwide 2-6" Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If this was hitting at night we would be looking at a regionwide 2-6" I'm quite a way east from you guys, largely will fall at night for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 13 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, have a house in southeast Deleware county ~2000' Off topic but... Glendale? I grew up in Glendale. 66th Street and 70th Avenue. From 1964 to 1980. Cheers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 It's subtle, but the axis of heavier snow was modeled yesterday by the NAM to be a bit south of verification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 00z NAM vs. verification....note max totals north of Chicago vs NAM and where reports in S. lower Michigan are overperforming vs. NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 From past experiences, and based on radar trends and verification, I think the axis of heaviest qpf (mostly snow) will be in NY on a line from Hamburg, Ithaca, Hamilton, to just south of Albany......IOW about 20-30 miles north of the current 12z NAM output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: It's subtle, but the axis of heavier snow was modeled yesterday by the NAM to be a bit south of verification... And accordingly, the NWS in Albany has just added these counties to the Winter Weather Advisory for 2 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Snow started here around 2 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snow started here around 2 PM. I'm smelling over achiever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Do you think we can take Rochester out of its spot by July? We not only can, but it is our birthright to do so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Flurries have commenced. Just got here, surprised to see some old snow has survived in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm smelling over achiever. Same. Especially for eastern areas, definitely some more enhancement on the models as the storm intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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